5355 River Rd #98 · Keizer, OR 97303

$39,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1972 $29/sqft · at area comps Est $40k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in desirable McNary Oaks Villa, a 55+ community with a pool, this 2 bed, 2 bath double-wide manufactured home offers a spacious layout and comfortable living. Features include a carport and a nice-sized backyard for outdoor enjoyment. Across from community park. Great opportunity to add your personal touch and build equity. Space rent is $975.00

Key facts

• Community park
• Carport
• Backyard

Tags

• POOL
• CARPORT
• BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.8% vs local median 2.9% in Keizer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#56 in OR, #1,918 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $40k implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 112.48%
• DSCR: 6.00
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $40,500
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -1.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5355 River Rd NE #101	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-2%)	5mo	$41,000	$31	88
5355 River Rd N #118	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+7%)	13mo	$74,000	$51	78
5355 River Rd N #92	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,250 (-9%)	12mo	$40,000	$32	76
5510 Windsor Is N #30	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	1mo	$18,000	$13	71
1055 Lockhaven Dr N #69	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	4mo	$33,000	$25	68
1055 Lockhaven Dr NE #56	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	4mo	$40,500	$30	68
1055 Lockhaven Dr N #41	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	4mo	$55,000	$41	68
1055 Lockhaven Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	4mo	$40,500	$30	67
1055 N Lockhaven Dr #67	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	10mo	$59,000	$44	63
5510 Windsor Island Rd N #2	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+5%)	8mo	$39,500	$27	53
5510 Windsor Island Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+5%)	8mo	$39,500	$27	53
1055 Lockhaven Dr #90	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,215 (-11%)	16mo	$65,000	$53	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $61,467
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.94×
• Total profit: $144,550
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97303

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,637 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $241/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $1,047

Break-even live

Break-even rent $311

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
295 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	23d	1	0.15mi
205 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	14d	1	0.21mi
208 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	2d	2	0.21mi
180 Sandy Dr N Unit 196 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	875	$1,300	$1.49	23d	1	0.29mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-614 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	14d	1	0.31mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-636 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	44d	1	0.31mi
790 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,024	$1.93	11d	11	0.37mi
898 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	903	$1,550	$1.72	14d	3	0.54mi
5799 Trail Ave NE Unit 5819-304 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,695	$1.78	23d	1	0.58mi
1063 Koala St N Keizer, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$1,299	$1.22	4d	3	0.59mi
5955 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	23d	1	0.59mi
5965 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	44d	1	0.61mi
1102 Orchard Ct N Keizer, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0	955	$1,375	$1.44	44d	1	0.62mi
5945 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	44d	1	0.62mi
5975 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,500	$1.63	21d	1	0.63mi
4848 Elvira Pl N Keizer, OR	3.0	2.5	1838	$2,600	$1.41	44d	2	0.63mi
5925 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	8d	1	0.66mi
5905 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	44d	1	0.68mi
776 Dearborn Ave NE Keizer, OR	3.0	1.0	1230	$2,300	$1.87	44d	1	0.77mi
892 Foothill Ct NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	946	$1,575	$1.66	2d	10	0.89mi
491 Marino Dr N Unit 495 Keizer, OR	3.0	2.0	1285	$2,350	$1.83	14d	1	1.03mi
4853 Verda Ln NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,914	$1.98	14d	10	1.04mi
6701 Hidden Creek Loop NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	860	$1,600	$1.86	2d	4	1.04mi
5188 Perry St NE Keizer, OR	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,550	$1.87	14d	1	1.07mi
6800 Wheatland Rd N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	986	$1,525	$1.55	16d	1	1.09mi
1220 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	935	$1,399	$1.50	44d	1	1.13mi
1236 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	935	$1,399	$1.50	44d	1	1.18mi
1144 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	901	$1,400	$1.55	21d	1	1.21mi
1204 McGee Ct NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,450	$1.43	44d	1	1.21mi
1154 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	901	$1,400	$1.55	14d	1	1.21mi
1154 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	901	$1,350	$1.50	23d	1	1.21mi
1244 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,450	$1.43	23d	1	1.22mi
1134 Mcgee Ct NE Unit 1268-304 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,450	$1.43	23d	1	1.23mi
1134 Mcgee Ct NE Unit 1154-302 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	901	$1,400	$1.55	14d	1	1.23mi
1134 Mcgee Ct NE Unit 1154-304 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	901	$1,350	$1.50	23d	1	1.23mi
1134 Mcgee Ct NE Unit 1244-102 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	935	$1,399	$1.50	44d	1	1.23mi
1268 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,450	$1.43	23d	1	1.24mi
4165 River Rd N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	950	$1,395	$1.47	23d	1	1.24mi
1124 McGee Ct NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,450	$1.67	2d	13	1.26mi
1276 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,450	$1.43	44d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,900 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    price $39,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Located in desirable McNary Oaks Villa, a 55+ community with a pool, this 2 bed, 2 bath double-wide manufactured home offers a spacious layout and comfortable living. Features include a carport and a nice-sized backyard for outdoor enjoyment. Across from community park. Great opportunity to add your personal touch and build equity. Space rent is $975.00

16. 2026-04-23
    price $39,900 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Located in desirable McNary Oaks Villa, a 55+ community with a pool, this 2 bed, 2 bath double-wide manufactured home offers a spacious layout and comfortable living. Features include a carport and a nice-sized backyard for outdoor enjoyment. Across from community park. Great opportunity to add your personal touch and build equity. Space rent $975

17. 2026-04-20
    listed $44,900 Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Located in desirable McNary Oaks Villa, a 55+ community with a pool, this 2 bed, 2 bath double-wide manufactured home offers a spacious layout and comfortable living. Features include a carport and a nice-sized backyard for outdoor enjoyment. Across from community park. Great opportunity to add your personal touch and build equity. Space rent $975

18. 2026-04-17
    price $44,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Located in desirable McNary Oaks Villa, a 55+ community with a pool, this 2 bed, 2 bath double-wide manufactured home offers a spacious layout and comfortable living. Features include a carport and a nice-sized backyard for outdoor enjoyment. Across from community park. Great opportunity to add your personal touch and build equity. Space rent is $975.00

19. 2026-03-28
    price $49,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Located in desirable McNary Oaks Villa, a 55+ community with a pool, this 2 bed, 2 bath double-wide manufactured home offers a spacious layout and comfortable living. Features include a carport and a nice-sized backyard for outdoor enjoyment. Across from community park. Great opportunity to add your personal touch and build equity. Space rent is $975.00

20. 2026-03-20
    price $54,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Located in desirable McNary Oaks Villa, a 55+ community with a pool, this 2 bed, 2 bath double-wide manufactured home offers a spacious layout and comfortable living. Features include a carport and a nice-sized backyard for outdoor enjoyment. Across from community park. Great opportunity to add your personal touch and build equity. Space rent is $975.00

21. 2026-03-19
    listed $549,900 Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Located in desirable McNary Oaks Villa, a 55+ community with a pool, this 2 bed, 2 bath double-wide manufactured home offers a spacious layout and comfortable living. Features include a carport and a nice-sized backyard for outdoor enjoyment. Across from community park. Great opportunity to add your personal touch and build equity. Space rent is $975.00

22. 2010-03-03
    historical
23. 2010-02-16
    listed $16,500 Active
24. 2009-03-02
    soldstatus $15,000 Sold
25. 1983-03-01
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $241 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $387 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$146/yr (+$12/mo · 60.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$241
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,571
• − Management: −$1,571
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $12,664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,039
• After-tax cash flow: $9,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Keizer

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #1918

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keizer, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 40,659
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,659
• Household income: $84,871
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.84%
• Current HPI: 292.0057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+110.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $39,900 WVMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $39,900 RMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $44,900 RMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $44,900 WVMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $49,900 WVMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $54,900 WVMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $549,900 WVMLS
• 2010-03-03 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2010-02-16 Listed $16,500 WVMLS
• 2009-03-02 Sold (MLS) $15,000 WVMLS
• 1983-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-10.6%/yr

Latest (2013): $241 · -6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.