27 Pine Ridge Blvd · Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ 08759

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 71 Days on market

Built 1999 $73/sqft · 19% below area Est $142k · 19% under $903/mo HOA · 51% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 27 Pine Ridge Blvd. Bring your personal touch to this spacious home and make it your own. While it could use a little TLC, the estate has priced the home accordingly, giving you a lot of room to update and customize to your liking. This 1,568 sq. ft. home features: 2 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths Primary bath with soaking tub and separate shower, Living room opens to the dining area, Expansive kitchen with plenty of cabinets, ample counter space, appliances included, plus a pantry & Charming breakfast area off the kitchen that could also serve as an office. Heating system, C/A & hot water heater approx. 5 years old, handicap ramp on side door entry stays. Great Community that has many amenities: Pool, Gym, Game Rm., Community Hall & many fun Activities. Open to Offers!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Pool
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-300 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $72k (37.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 6.0% in Pine Ridge at Crestwood — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#481 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $115k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 51% of rent.

Recommended offer $71,656 (37.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.16%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,877
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -18.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
53 Pine Ridge Blvd	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	9mo	$165,000	$103	83
308 Kenwood Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,580 (+1%)	12mo	$134,900	$85	79
1307 Floral Way	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,512 (-4%)	11mo	$190,000	$126	73
536 Momosa Way	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,416 (-10%)	1mo	$163,000	$115	72
1404 Forest Way	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+5%)	1mo	$147,000	$89	72
66 Pine Ridge Blvd	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,420 (-9%)	9mo	$115,000	$81	70
2 Amherst Rd Unit A	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,544 (-2%)	1mo	$240,000	$155	66
3B Alpine Rd #63	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,544 (-2%)	2mo	$212,500	$138	61
507 Momosa Way	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,334 (-15%)	5mo	$145,000	$109	60
8 Amherst Rd	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,568 (0%)	13mo	$320,000	$204	57
10 Alpine Rd #63	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-11%)	1mo	$170,000	$122	50
16-B Ardsley Avenue Sec 64	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-11%)	12mo	$227,500	$163	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-37,131
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-54,536
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,770 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$903
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,149

Max offer price $71,656

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-220	-5% $-260	+0% $-300	+5% $-339	+10% $-379
Rent	-10% $-439	-5% $-369	+0% $-300	+5% $-230	+10% $-160
Rate	-1.0pp $-242	-0.5pp $-270	base $-300	+0.5pp $-329	+1.0pp $-360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
— Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	12d	1	0.49mi
24 Partridge Pl Manchester Township, NJ	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,780	$1.43	14d	1	0.51mi
4 Autumn Ct Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	0d	1	0.53mi
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	5d	1	0.65mi
1 Morning Glory Ln Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.5	1312	$1,200	$0.91	5d	1	1.39mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,350	$1.52	22d	1	1.45mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	0d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $903 · $10,836/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    price $120,000 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    Welcome to 27 Pine Ridge Blvd. Bring your personal touch to this spacious home and make it your own. While it could use a little TLC, the estate has priced the home accordingly, giving you a lot of room to update and customize to your liking. This 1,568 sq. ft. home features: 2 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths Primary bath with soaking tub and separate shower, Living room opens to the dining area, Expansive kitchen with plenty of cabinets, ample counter space, appliances included, plus a pantry & Charming breakfast area off the kitchen that could also serve as an office. Heating system, C/A & hot water heater approx. 5 years old, handicap ramp on side door entry stays. Great Community that has many amenities: Pool, Gym, Game Rm., Community Hall & many fun Activities. Open to Offers!

16. 2026-04-11
    listed $135,000 Active 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    Welcome to 27 Pine Ridge Blvd. Bring your personal touch to this spacious home and make it your own. While it could use a little TLC, the estate has priced the home accordingly, giving you a lot of room to update and customize to your liking. This 1,568 sq. ft. home features: 2 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths Primary bath with soaking tub and separate shower, Living room opens to the dining area, Expansive kitchen with plenty of cabinets, ample counter space, appliances included, plus a pantry & Charming breakfast area off the kitchen that could also serve as an office. Heating system, C/A & hot water heater approx. 5 years old, handicap ramp on side door entry stays. Great Community that has many amenities: Pool, Gym, Game Rm., Community Hall & many fun Activities. Open to Offers!

17. 2026-04-08
    historical $135,000 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    Welcome to 27 Pine Ridge Blvd. Bring your personal touch to this spacious home and make it your own. While it could use a little TLC, the estate has priced the home accordingly, giving you a lot of room to update and customize to your liking. This 1,568 sq. ft. home features: 2 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths Primary bath with soaking tub and separate shower, Living room opens to the dining area, Expansive kitchen with plenty of cabinets, ample counter space, appliances included, plus a pantry & Charming breakfast area off the kitchen that could also serve as an office. Heating system, C/A & hot water heater approx. 5 years old, handicap ramp on side door entry stays. Great Community that has many amenities: Pool, Gym, Game Rm., Community Hall & many fun Activities. Open to Offers!

18. 2009-10-05
    soldstatus $43,900 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    55+comm.MINT,MINT,MINT Tamarack Model has State of the Arts Club House with many activities for everyone to partake in. Heat/Air Systems are new. Dream kitchen is a pleasure to work in and serve out of for your guests!Call LB for many extras. Comfort is the best description for this Charming Home.

19. 2008-05-09
    listed $50,000 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    55+comm.MINT,MINT,MINT Tamarack Model has State of the Arts Club House with many activities for everyone to partake in. Heat/Air Systems are new. Dream kitchen is a pleasure to work in and serve out of for your guests!Call LB for many extras. Comfort is the best description for this Charming Home.

20. 2002-04-29
    soldstatus $89,000
21. 2001-12-15
    listed $89,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − HOA: −$10,836
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$5,083
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,220
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Ridge at Crestwood

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #18916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+34.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $120,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $135,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $135,000 MOMLS
• 2009-10-05 Sold (MLS) $43,900 MOMLS
• 2008-05-09 Listed $50,000 MOMLS
• 2002-04-29 Sold (MLS) $89,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-12-15 Listed $89,000 BRIGHT MLS