16706 Vardon Ter #101 · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$317,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Condo public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2017 $1327/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This stunning 3Bd/2BA Lakewood National Condo is being offered FULLY FURNISHED-TURNKEY and MOVE IN READY! GROUND FLOOR END UNIT has LAKE VIEW AND GOLF COURSE VIEW. The Lakewood National Golf Resort offers two Arnold Palmer award winning golf courses, ranked #2 by Golf Digest, and where UNLIMITED golf is included in your annual dues (pay only the cart fee). The spacious kitchen includes beautiful 42”cabinetry, granite countertops, crown molding, stainless steel appliances. The living room opens to the screened Lanai, ideal for entertaining, enjoying your morning coffee or evening cocktail. The Laundry area is conveniently located just off the kitchen in the hallway. The bedrooms are sp

Key facts

• Golf course view
• Ground floor
• End unit

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• GOLF COURSE VIEW
• GROUND FLOOR
• END UNIT
• UPSCALE AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Some furnishings included (property listed as furnished); Irrigation equipment present
• Financial info: Total annual association fees reported; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (association name: Mark Rutland); Monthly HOA fee approximately $519.67 (quarterly association fee $1,559); Association approval required; Association includes: 24-hour guard, cable TV, pool, internet, structure & grounds maintenance, pest control, recreational facilities, security, sewer, trash; Community amenities: clubhouse, community mailbox, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, sidewalks, deed restrictions; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Has a 1-car carport
• Security: 24-hour guard (community amenity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Irrigation (reclaimed water)
• Home design: Condominium; Single-story unit (floor 1); Building faces north; Three or more levels in complex/structure
• Construction: Block construction; Tile roof; Brick/mortar foundation; Built as part of building number 16706
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Storage; Tennis courts; Pond view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Crown molding; Living room/dining room combo; Stone counters; Walk-in closets; Window treatments (including blinds)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (8.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $318k).
• Recommended offer: $289k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 21% FRL vs 51% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1154 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,264 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-73,497
• Equity at exit: $47,340

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-122,788
• Equity at exit: $27,452

Cash invested: $88,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1154
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,369 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,665
• Tax from tax record: −$487 /mo · $5,849/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$1,327
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$918
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,572

Max offer price $289,264

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-70	+0% $-160	+5% $-250	+10% $-340
Rent	-10% $-505	-5% $-332	+0% $-160	+5% $13	+10% $185
Rate	-1.0pp $0	-0.5pp $-79	base $-160	+0.5pp $-242	+1.0pp $-326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,375
• Closing costs: $9,525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16706 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1203	$6,000	$4.99	15d	5	0.04mi
16804 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1131	$3,425	$3.03	3d	2	0.07mi
16814 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1124	$3,650	$3.25	24d	2	0.12mi
16904 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1195	$6,500	$5.44	4d	5	0.16mi
17006 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1196	$5,200	$4.35	24d	3	0.22mi
17108 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1203	$6,000	$4.99	24d	4	0.27mi
5930 Cessna Run Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$12,500	$6.76	24d	1	0.30mi
17118 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1214	$2,800	$2.31	15d	3	0.32mi
17118 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1214	$2,800	$2.31	2d	2	0.32mi
5921 Wake Forest Run Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$3,500	$1.96	24d	1	0.42mi
5831 Wake Forest Run #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,995	$4.02	24d	1	0.51mi
17510 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1196	$6,200	$5.18	4d	5	0.60mi
17520 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1214	$6,000	$4.94	24d	2	0.62mi
17520 Gawthrop Dr Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$3,000	$2.68	24d	1	0.62mi
17626 Gawthrop Dr #206 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$5,500	$4.82	24d	1	0.68mi
5507 Palmer Cir #105 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1329	$2,750	$2.07	24d	1	0.69mi
17704 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$2,375	$2.08	24d	3	0.71mi
17704 Gawthrop Dr Unit 1545826P Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$3,163	$2.21	15d	1	0.71mi
5517 Palmer Cir #105 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1329	$4,000	$3.01	24d	1	0.72mi
17724 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1220	$3,250	$2.66	12d	3	0.76mi
5537 Palmer Cir #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$3,200	$2.04	24d	1	0.79mi
5528 Palmer Cir #105 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,000	$1.48	16d	1	0.82mi
17815 Gawthrop Dr #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$7,500	$4.20	24d	1	0.82mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1453	$4,000	$2.75	19d	2	0.87mi
5557 Palmer Cir #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$3,500	$2.58	24d	1	0.87mi
17902 Gawthrop Dr Unit 1546175P Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,965	$2.32	16d	1	0.87mi
17902 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1213	$6,500	$5.36	16d	4	0.87mi
5548 Palmer Cir #103 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,200	$1.62	21d	1	0.88mi
6647 Clairborne Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1836	$3,595	$1.96	24d	1	0.89mi
6743 Haverhill Ct Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1348	$5,775	$4.28	24d	1	0.89mi
5567 Palmer Cir #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1336	$5,500	$4.12	24d	1	0.91mi
5558 Palmer Cir #106 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1462	$6,000	$4.10	24d	1	0.91mi
18008 Gawthrop Dr #402 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,500	$2.17	16d	1	0.92mi
18017 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$6,000	$3.36	24d	1	0.95mi
5577 Palmer Cir #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,300	$1.47	24d	1	0.95mi
5710 Palmer Cir #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1462	$4,500	$3.08	24d	1	0.97mi
18028 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1310	$6,000	$4.58	16d	6	0.97mi
5721 Palmer Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1452	$3,250	$2.24	24d	2	1.00mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1310	$7,000	$5.34	2d	3	1.02mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1300	$7,000	$5.38	24d	5	1.02mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,327 · $15,924/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $317,500 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $317,500 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 693-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $317,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,849 · $487/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,849 · $487/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,785
• − Property taxes: −$5,849
• − Insurance: −$1,588
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,195
• − Management: −$4,195
• − HOA: −$15,924
• − Depreciation: −$9,236
• Taxable loss: −$6,338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,521
• After-tax cash flow: $-397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+5374.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $317,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-05 Rental Removed $6,500 STELLARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed for Rent $6,500 STELLARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Rental Removed $5,800 STELLARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed for Rent $5,800 STELLARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Rental Removed $5,800 STELLARMLS
• 2024-02-19 Listed for Rent $5,800 STELLARMLS
• 2024-01-16 Rental Removed $5,800 STELLARMLS
• 2023-12-05 Listed for Rent $5,800 STELLARMLS
• 2023-11-01 Rental Removed $5,800 STELLARMLS
• 2022-11-30 Listed for Rent $5,800 STELLARMLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,849 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.