5402 Five Oaks Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77389

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · Manufactured public records · 131 Days on market

Built 2024 7,792 sqft lot $119/sqft · 44% above area Est $180k · 44% over $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home offers an open-concept layout with spacious living areas, a modern kitchen featuring a large island, and comfortable bedrooms with neutral finishes throughout. Enjoy outdoor living on the elevated deck overlooking the yard, providing room to relax or entertain. With flexible spaces for work or play and thoughtful updates throughout, this home blends comfort, functionality, and everyday ease.

Key facts

• Flexible spaces
• Elevated deck
• Thoughtful updates

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• ELEVATED DECK
• FLEXIBLE SPACES
• THOUGHTFUL UPDATES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($757/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,242 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,000
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: 44.44%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-40,524
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-39,793
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77389

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,282 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,063/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,203

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5522 Mesquite Oaks Trl Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	2145	$2,500	$1.17	11d	1	0.31mi
4702 Preserve Park Dr Unit SF10K2 Spring, TX	4.0	3.0	2647	$2,600	$0.98	43d	1	0.41mi
5730 Blue Harvest DR The Woodlands, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1660	$2,631	$1.58	5d	98	0.58mi
4927 Fox Hollow Blvd Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,799	$1.28	20d	1	0.79mi
24530 Gosling Rd Unit 3228 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,898	$1.35	2d	1	0.94mi
24530 Gosling Rd Unit 3047 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,930	$1.37	2d	1	1.01mi
24530 Gosling Rd Unit 24563 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,930	$1.37	10d	1	1.02mi
6000 W Rayford Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1073	$2,172	$2.02	3d	17	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $260,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-02-18
    price $260,000 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    This home offers an open-concept layout with spacious living areas, a modern kitchen featuring a large island, and comfortable bedrooms with neutral finishes throughout. Enjoy outdoor living on the elevated deck overlooking the yard, providing room to relax or entertain. With flexible spaces for work or play and thoughtful updates throughout, this home blends comfort, functionality, and everyday ease.

15. 2026-02-07
    listed $280,000 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    This home offers an open-concept layout with spacious living areas, a modern kitchen featuring a large island, and comfortable bedrooms with neutral finishes throughout. Enjoy outdoor living on the elevated deck overlooking the yard, providing room to relax or entertain. With flexible spaces for work or play and thoughtful updates throughout, this home blends comfort, functionality, and everyday ease.

16. 2022-10-25
    soldstatus
17. 1994-04-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,063 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,758 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,695/yr (+$141/mo · 55.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$3,063
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,191
• − Management: −$2,191
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$3,640
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$874
• After-tax cash flow: $1,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,701
• Household income: $140,683
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1191.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.54%
• Current HPI: 236.5688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+44.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,063 · +329.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.