1991 125th Ave NW · Watford City, ND 58854

$110,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · MultiFamily · 252 Days on market

Built 2012 ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Key facts

• Built 2012
• Listed 251 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Paved road frontage on a county road; Lot features: See remarks

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Sewer connected (septic tank); Water connected; Electricity available
• Home design: Residential income property; Triplex; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle (asphalt/composition) roof
• Exterior features: Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($36k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 39.3% vs local median 2.5% in Watford City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#39 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mckenzie County 1 (rural): math 33% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #34 of 53 in ND (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 38 units permitted in McKenzie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,787/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($99k/yr) (locally 163% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McKenzie County population projected at +180% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 117.72%
• DSCR: 6.24
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $174,691
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.99×
• Total profit: $400,214
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58854

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,787 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,005
• Net cashflow: $3,022

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 32%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1.5	$4,788
Total (4 units)			$4,787

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 252 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 248 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 245 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 242 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 241 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 240 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 235 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 234 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 233 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 232 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    status Active
16. 2026-03-27
    historical
17. 2026-01-13
    price $110,000
18. 2025-10-10
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,596
• − Management: −$4,596
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $36,691
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,806
• After-tax cash flow: $27,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mckenzie County 1
• NCES district ID: 3812540
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,150
• Composite: 31.76/100
• National rank: #5902
• State rank: #34 of 53 in ND

Livability — Watford City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #5688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: McKenzie County · 9,368 people
• City population: 9,368
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 9,368
• Household income: $99,000
• Rent vs Own: 53.2% rent · 46.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 163.0

Population outlook (McKenzie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,775 people
• By 2030: 37,834 · +31.5%
• By 2040: 58,116 · +102.0%
• By 2050: 80,685 · +180.4%
• By 2075: 142,630 · +395.7%
• By 2100: 200,986 · +598.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 18% Scottish 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McKenzie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.9pp toward R · 2008: -29.7pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+67.7 2016: R+64.5 2012: R+44.5 2008: R+29.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.91%
• Current HPI: 129.8723
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Relisted — GNMLS
• 2026-03-27 Delisted — GNMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $110,000 GNMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $130,000 GNMLS