1191 Sabine Ln · Poinciana, FL 34759

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 193 Days on market

Built 2015 6,839 sqft lot $90/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well maintained home is located on a cul de sac. Features include a split bedroom floor plan, volume ceilings, breakfast nook area, carpet and tile flooring, walk in closet in master bedroom, garden tub in master bathroom, indoor laundry room, screen enclosed front entrance and porch in back, tall privacy fence, neutral paint colors, extended driveway and in move in condition. Located within 2 miles from Poinciana Community Park, hiking trails, several lakes and includes some appliances.

Key facts

• Pvc fence
• Spacious backyard
• Screened porch

Tags

• SCREENED PORCH
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• PVC FENCE
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• LONG DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; No CDD; Total annual fees listed as $1,080
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $90 (Association Of Ponciana); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces south; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.16-acre lot
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,777 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-34,757
• Equity at exit: $50,064

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-42,049
• Equity at exit: $48,248

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,456/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,119

Max offer price $203,653

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-14	-5% $-79	+0% $-143	+5% $-208	+10% $-273
Rent	-10% $-297	-5% $-220	+0% $-143	+5% $-67	+10% $10
Rate	-1.0pp $-28	-0.5pp $-85	base $-143	+0.5pp $-203	+1.0pp $-263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1388 N Platte Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$1,850	$1.01	11d	1	0.17mi
1019 N Platte Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,595	$1.09	24d	1	0.25mi
1142 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,700	$1.32	24d	1	0.40mi
1144 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	24d	1	0.40mi
1167 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1868	$1,875	$1.00	15d	1	0.47mi
650 Hudson Valley Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,734	$1.10	3d	1	0.49mi
994 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,825	$1.10	24d	1	0.59mi
642 Desmoines Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1826	$1,975	$1.08	3d	1	0.63mi
1157 Hudson Harbor Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,850	$1.14	24d	1	0.73mi
802 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,090	$1.25	12d	1	0.77mi
935 Cumberland Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,599	$1.27	14d	1	0.81mi
943 Cumberland Dr Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,695	$1.32	24d	1	0.81mi
423 Churchill Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1711	$1,975	$1.15	24d	1	0.94mi
245 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,125	$1.71	24d	1	1.03mi
217 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,085	$1.25	19d	1	1.05mi
237 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,950	$1.25	24d	1	1.06mi
24 Buck Cir Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1330	$1,595	$1.20	15d	1	1.06mi
205 Golf Aire Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,100	$1.25	11d	1	1.18mi
205 Golf Aire Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,100	$1.25	19d	1	1.18mi
132 Golf Aire Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,800	$0.98	24d	1	1.28mi
3181 Viceroy Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1610	$1,900	$1.18	3d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    price $229,000
15. 2026-05-18
    status Active
16. 2026-02-21
    status Pending
17. 2026-01-22
    price $224,990
18. 2026-01-08
    price $255,000
19. 2025-12-24
    status Active
20. 2025-12-15
    status Pending
21. 2025-09-03
    listed $215,000 Active
22. 2023-01-31
    soldstatus $280,000
23. 2023-01-26
    soldstatus $280,000 Closed 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    This well maintained home is located on a cul de sac. Features include a split bedroom floor plan, volume ceilings, breakfast nook area, carpet and tile flooring, walk in closet in master bedroom, garden tub in master bathroom, indoor laundry room, screen enclosed front entrance and porch in back, tall privacy fence, neutral paint colors, extended driveway and in move in condition. Located within 2 miles from Poinciana Community Park, hiking trails, several lakes and includes some appliances.

24. 2023-01-04
    status Pending 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    This well maintained home is located on a cul de sac. Features include a split bedroom floor plan, volume ceilings, breakfast nook area, carpet and tile flooring, walk in closet in master bedroom, garden tub in master bathroom, indoor laundry room, screen enclosed front entrance and porch in back, tall privacy fence, neutral paint colors, extended driveway and in move in condition. Located within 2 miles from Poinciana Community Park, hiking trails, several lakes and includes some appliances.

25. 2022-12-22
    price $275,000 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    This well maintained home is located on a cul de sac. Features include a split bedroom floor plan, volume ceilings, breakfast nook area, carpet and tile flooring, walk in closet in master bedroom, garden tub in master bathroom, indoor laundry room, screen enclosed front entrance and porch in back, tall privacy fence, neutral paint colors, extended driveway and in move in condition. Located within 2 miles from Poinciana Community Park, hiking trails, several lakes and includes some appliances.

26. 2022-12-16
    listed $280,000 Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    This well maintained home is located on a cul de sac. Features include a split bedroom floor plan, volume ceilings, breakfast nook area, carpet and tile flooring, walk in closet in master bedroom, garden tub in master bathroom, indoor laundry room, screen enclosed front entrance and porch in back, tall privacy fence, neutral paint colors, extended driveway and in move in condition. Located within 2 miles from Poinciana Community Park, hiking trails, several lakes and includes some appliances.

27. 2005-12-21
    soldstatus $4,800,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,456 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,456 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,456
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,860
• − Management: −$1,860
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$5,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,353
• After-tax cash flow: $-369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-95.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $224,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-26 Sold (MLS) $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-22 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-16 Listed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $4,800,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+34.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,456 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.