1415 E Bay St · Bartow, FL 33830

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 946 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1967 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Thinking about starting or adding to a rental portfolio. .. .. .Look no further this property has an excellent tenant that wants to stay. Perfect large family home. 4 bedrooms 2 bathrooms Family room , indoor laundry room freshly updated last summer. Detached storage building included. Perfect yard for outdoor fun.

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1967

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#526 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Floral Avenue Elementary School (math 36% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 611 students, 56% FRL); Bartow Senior High School (math 26% / reading 46%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 2,125 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.57%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $19,501
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $57,912
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33830

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 386
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,568 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,250/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $916

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $560	-5% $537	+0% $515	+5% $492	+10% $469
Rent	-10% $391	-5% $453	+0% $515	+5% $577	+10% $638
Rate	-1.0pp $555	-0.5pp $535	base $515	+0.5pp $494	+1.0pp $473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1715 1/2 Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Bartow, FL	2.0	1.0	624	$1,200	$1.92	24d	1	0.23mi
1715 Martin Luther King Jr Blvd Bartow, FL	2.0	1.0	624	$1,200	$1.92	24d	1	0.23mi
2060 Martin Luther King Jr Blvd Bartow, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	24d	1	0.39mi
855 E Vine St Unit A Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,850	$1.78	24d	1	0.41mi
740 E Pearl St Unit C Bartow, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,360	$1.51	24d	1	0.50mi
740 E Pearl St Apt E Bartow, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,470	$1.47	24d	1	0.52mi
1465 E Boulevard St Bartow, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	24d	1	0.72mi
820 S Floral Ave Bartow, FL	2.0	1.5	1112	$1,200	$1.08	24d	1	0.97mi
670 Garden St Bartow, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,295	$1.52	24d	1	1.17mi
1290 Henson Ln Bartow, FL	2.0	1.0	743	$850	$1.14	12d	1	1.22mi
1350 N Wilson Ave Bartow, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,649	$1.85	3d	6	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2025-12-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-05
   listed $80,000 Active
3. 2024-10-13
   historical $2,000
4. 2024-09-02
   listed $2,000
5. 2024-06-04
   soldstatus $205,000
6. 2024-05-30
   soldstatus $205,000 Closed 317-char remark

   Show marketing remark (317 chars)

   Thinking about starting or adding to a rental portfolio. .. .. .Look no further this property has an excellent tenant that wants to stay. Perfect large family home. 4 bedrooms 2 bathrooms Family room , indoor laundry room freshly updated last summer. Detached storage building included. Perfect yard for outdoor fun.

7. 2024-04-12
   status Pending 317-char remark

   Show marketing remark (317 chars)

   Thinking about starting or adding to a rental portfolio. .. .. .Look no further this property has an excellent tenant that wants to stay. Perfect large family home. 4 bedrooms 2 bathrooms Family room , indoor laundry room freshly updated last summer. Detached storage building included. Perfect yard for outdoor fun.

8. 2024-02-28
   listed $205,000 Active 317-char remark

   Show marketing remark (317 chars)

   Thinking about starting or adding to a rental portfolio. .. .. .Look no further this property has an excellent tenant that wants to stay. Perfect large family home. 4 bedrooms 2 bathrooms Family room , indoor laundry room freshly updated last summer. Detached storage building included. Perfect yard for outdoor fun.

9. 2023-09-05
   historical $1,850
10. 2023-08-31
    price $1,850
11. 2023-08-29
    listed $2,000
12. 2021-04-13
    listed $159,700 Active
13. 2020-02-03
    historical
14. 2020-01-30
    price $129,900
15. 2020-01-30
    status Active
16. 2020-01-24
    status Pending
17. 2020-01-17
    listed $139,900 Active
18. 2015-05-29
    soldstatus $35,000 Sold
19. 2015-05-03
    status Pending
20. 2015-04-27
    listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,250 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,250 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$3,250
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $5,342
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,282
• After-tax cash flow: $4,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bartow

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #9835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bartow, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,740
• Household income: $63,918
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 681.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 18% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.47%
• Current HPI: 333.3392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+100.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Listed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-13 Rental Removed $2,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-09-02 Listed for Rent $2,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-30 Sold (MLS) $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-28 Listed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-05 Rental Removed $1,850 STELLARMLS
• 2023-08-31 Price Changed $1,850 STELLARMLS
• 2023-08-29 Listed for Rent $2,000 STELLARMLS
• 2021-04-13 Listed $159,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-30 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-17 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-29 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-27 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+55.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,250 · +70.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.