428 E Ormsby Ave · Louisville, KY 40203

$239,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 1900 3,484 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this gorgeous newly remodeled home with lots of natural light and an abundance of space! This fine home offers an open floor plan featuring a large living room, kitchen, dining area, a very nice primary suite, 2 additional bedrooms, total of 2.5 baths. Put this one on your list to view!!! Easy to show! A showing is a sale!!!!

Key facts

• 3,484 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported as 3,700 total (above-grade finished listed as 3,700)
• HOA & community: No association fee; No monthly maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories; Built in 1900; Other architectural style
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Foundation and year built: 1900
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Lot dimensions approximately 25 x 144

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the second floor); Primary bedroom on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom (half bath on the first floor); Primary bathroom on the second floor; A full bathroom on the second floor
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; One HVAC unit
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Four closets; No basement; Primary bedroom and primary bathroom located on the second floor
• Laundry & utility: No first-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $239k).
• Recommended offer: $217k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,613/mo this rent would consume 102% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 1603% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $239k implies a 295% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.40%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $529,100
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1375 S 2nd St	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,755 (+2%)	3mo	$550,000	$146	67
1228 S 3rd St	0.62mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,862 (+4%)	15mo	$460,000	$119	42
1307 S First St	0.38mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,189 (-14%)	15mo	$475,000	$149	38
1208 S 2nd St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	3,261 (-12%)	15mo	$455,000	$140	35
1440 S 2nd St	0.59mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,219 (-13%)	14mo	$460,000	$143	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-13,991
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $25,438
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40203

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,613 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$355 /mo · $4,255/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,161

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $492	-5% $425	+0% $357	+5% $289	+10% $222
Rent	-10% $150	-5% $254	+0% $357	+5% $460	+10% $563
Rate	-1.0pp $477	-0.5pp $418	base $357	+0.5pp $295	+1.0pp $232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1375 S 1st St Louisville, KY	4.0	3.0	2470	$2,400	$0.97	24d	1	0.41mi
1451 S 2nd St Louisville, KY	4.0	3.5	3983	$4,200	$1.05	24d	1	0.58mi
1100 S 3rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	2832	$2,500	$0.88	24d	1	0.67mi
1115 S 4th St Unit 300 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	3200	$1,975	$0.62	24d	1	0.70mi
540 S 4th St Unit 401 Louisville, KY	3.0	3.5	3200	$4,500	$1.41	24d	1	1.40mi
540 S 4th St Unit 401 Louisville, KY	3.0	3.5	3200	$4,500	$1.41	13d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-06
   price $239,000
4. 2026-01-29
   listed $250,000 Active
5. 2026-01-24
   price $250,000
6. 2025-08-27
   price $279,000
7. 2025-08-03
   price $289,000
8. 2025-07-23
   price $295,000
9. 2025-04-25
   price $315,000
10. 2025-03-22
    price $325,000
11. 2025-03-10
    price $330,000
12. 2025-01-28
    price $340,000
13. 2019-12-25
    historical
14. 2019-12-12
    status Active
15. 2019-12-11
    status Pending
16. 2019-11-21
    price $100,000
17. 2019-11-21
    price $80,000
18. 2019-11-21
    price $90,000
19. 2019-11-19
    listed $108,000 Active
20. 2018-08-10
    soldstatus $60,500
21. 2018-08-09
    status Active
22. 2018-08-08
    soldstatus $60,500 Closed
23. 2018-07-26
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2018-07-07
    price $63,400
25. 2018-07-07
    listed $64,900 Active
26. 2018-06-18
    soldstatus $50,000
27. 2015-07-27
    historical
28. 2015-06-12
    listed $27,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,255 · $355/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,255 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 48% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$4,255
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,509
• − Management: −$2,509
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable income: $550
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$132
• After-tax cash flow: $4,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 17,742
• Household income: $30,794
• Rent vs Own: 75.1% rent · 24.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1603.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 44% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.74%
• Current HPI: 405.1872
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+785.2% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $239,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $250,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $250,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $279,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $289,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $295,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $315,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $325,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $330,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $340,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-12-25 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-12-12 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-12-11 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-11-21 Price Changed $90,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-11-21 Price Changed $80,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-11-21 Price Changed $100,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-11-19 Listed $108,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records
• 2018-08-09 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-08-08 Sold (MLS) $60,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-07-26 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-07-07 Listed $64,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-07-07 Price Changed $63,400 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-27 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2015-06-12 Listed $27,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+18.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,255 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.