3207 Sumpter St · Houston, TX 77026

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 214 Days on market

Built 1935 2,413 sqft lot $67/sqft · 75% below area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

1-Story duplex in Near North Chapmans Ready For You. Being sold with MLS# 15620135, 18764679, 32158022, 36322345, 4544794

Key facts

• Built 1935
• Listed 213 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $649 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 445 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,603/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1531% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.33%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,812
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -75.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3053 Noble St	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (0%)	1mo	$64,497	$54	84
2405 Pannell St	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,230 (+2%)	3mo	$99,500	$81	74
2111 Davis St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,243 (+4%)	6mo	$175,000	$141	72
2006 Stevens St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,243 (+4%)	6mo	$225,000	$181	71
4214 Quitman St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-6%)	0mo	$174,999	$155	61
3706 Lucille St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,231 (+3%)	7mo	$249,900	$203	58
2004 Worms St	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+12%)	1mo	$259,000	$193	57
2710 Stevens St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,168 (-3%)	7mo	$203,900	$175	57
4034 Wylie St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,246 (+4%)	6mo	$194,000	$156	56
2212 Semmes St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,320 (+10%)	1mo	$181,000	$137	47
1912 Semmes St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,104 (-8%)	2mo	$65,000	$59	46
4314 Rawley St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,048 (-13%)	9mo	$195,900	$187	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $55,016
• Equity at exit: $40,061

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.97×
• Total profit: $133,621
• Equity at exit: $65,126

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77026

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 445
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,603 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,176/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $649

Break-even live

Break-even rent $781

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3031 Sumpter St Unit 50 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	732	$1,200	$1.64	24d	1	0.11mi
3502 Campbell St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	725	$800	$1.10	43d	1	0.22mi
3300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	43d	1	0.32mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	43d	1	0.37mi
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	43d	1	0.42mi
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	43d	1	0.60mi
4300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	43d	1	0.67mi
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	22d	1	0.90mi
1550 Leona St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,905	$2.28	1d	19	1.04mi
2209 Gano St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	43d	1	1.09mi
2209 Gano St Unit 4 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	43d	1	1.09mi
1550 Leona St Unit 1587 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,942	$1.72	43d	1	1.09mi
1250 Leona St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,990	$2.25	2d	16	1.17mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$3,094	$3.55	20d	16	1.25mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	970	$3,420	$3.52	1d	69	1.25mi
650 McKee St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,114	$1.86	10d	1	1.28mi
650 McKee St Unit 687 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,715	$1.78	43d	1	1.28mi
650 McKee St Apt 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,725	$1.79	5d	1	1.28mi
650 McKee St Unit 683 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,125	$1.87	43d	1	1.28mi
650 McKee St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,682	$1.74	3d	1	1.28mi
650 McKee St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,714	$1.77	10d	1	1.28mi
650 McKee St Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,690	$1.75	7d	1	1.28mi
650 McKee St Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,082	$1.83	3d	1	1.28mi
650 McKee St Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,690	$1.75	5d	1	1.28mi
5408 Market St Unit 5408-1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	730	$900	$1.23	5d	1	1.30mi
3805 Wipprecht St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	768	$1,100	$1.43	18d	1	1.31mi
3813 Wipprecht St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	24d	1	1.33mi
800 Middle St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,593	$1.59	5d	1	1.34mi
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,237	$3.00	3d	1	1.35mi
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	43d	1	1.36mi
1514 Everett St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	970	$1,840	$1.90	19d	1	1.36mi
4203 Hirsch Rd Unit 5 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	758	$950	$1.25	43d	1	1.37mi
2115 Runnels St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,775	$1.69	43d	1	1.44mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	959	$1,831	$1.91	3d	1	1.45mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	959	$1,839	$1.92	7d	1	1.45mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	959	$1,839	$1.92	5d	1	1.45mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	959	$1,863	$1.94	10d	1	1.45mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 2152 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	959	$1,864	$1.94	43d	1	1.45mi
2704 Sam Wilson St Unit 1391353P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,916	$1.91	7d	1	1.45mi
1625 N Main St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	994	$2,354	$2.37	3d	42	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $80,000 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-03-23
    price $80,000 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    1-Story duplex in Near North Chapmans Ready For You. Being sold with MLS# 15620135, 18764679, 32158022, 36322345, 4544794

12. 2025-11-15
    listed $90,000 Active 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    1-Story duplex in Near North Chapmans Ready For You. Being sold with MLS# 15620135, 18764679, 32158022, 36322345, 4544794

13. 2018-08-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,176 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,464 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$288/yr (+$24/mo · 24.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,176
• − Insurance: −$1,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $6,977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $6,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,981
• Household income: $39,211
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 18% White 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 267.5995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,176 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.