819 Horizon Ln · Murphy, MO 63026

$144,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Other public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1991 8,276 sqft lot $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home with a lot of room! So much NEW! New stainless steel dishwasher, range, microwave, refrigerator. New countertops and sink. New six panel doors. New Carpet. New windows. New click and lock vinyl flooring. Air conditioner and furnace are new. Has a back porch / deck that faces trees. Sit outside in solitude! Great house with low property taxes. Location is great right by the Bluffs! Small shed in back yard. Street is only about a block long and it dead ends. Great house! Property is agent owned.

Key facts

• Covered back deck
• Tree-lined backyard
• 8,276 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED BACK DECK
• TREE-LINED BACKYARD
• QUICK ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• QUICK ACCESS TO DINING
• QUICK ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.0% in Murphy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#461 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Fox C-6 (suburban): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #103 of 324 in MO (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.7% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.07%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,251
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $56,774
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63026

• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,487 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $885/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,142

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
832 Briny Ln Fenton, MO	2.0	2.0	924	$1,245	$1.35	2d	1	0.14mi
833 High View Dr Fenton, MO	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,038	$0.88	2d	1	0.32mi
617 Silver Maple Dr Fenton, MO	3.0	2.0	1478	$900	$0.61	8d	1	0.47mi
63 Patricia Pl Fenton, MO	3.0	1.0	1091	$1,995	$1.83	11d	1	0.82mi
100 Parkhill Ter Dr Fenton, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$975	$1.26	15d	2	1.09mi
684 S Old Hwy 141 Fenton, MO	2.0	1.0–1.5	1050	$1,288	$1.23	2d	9	1.12mi
1054 Green Mountain Ct Fenton, MO	2.0	1.0	793	$1,198	$1.51	2d	12	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   status $144,900 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on marketlisting id $144,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM
7. 2026-04-18
   price $144,900
8. 2026-04-12
   price $149,500
9. 2026-04-02
   status Active
10. 2026-03-23
    price $149,900
11. 2025-11-14
    listed $155,000 Active
12. 2025-11-13
    historical
13. 2019-12-23
    soldstatus
14. 2019-12-23
    soldstatus
15. 2019-12-10
    soldstatus Closed 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Great home with a lot of room! So much NEW! New stainless steel dishwasher, range, microwave, refrigerator. New countertops and sink. New six panel doors. New Carpet. New windows. New click and lock vinyl flooring. Air conditioner and furnace are new. Has a back porch / deck that faces trees. Sit outside in solitude! Great house with low property taxes. Location is great right by the Bluffs! Small shed in back yard. Street is only about a block long and it dead ends. Great house! Property is agent owned.

16. 2019-10-28
    status Pending 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Great home with a lot of room! So much NEW! New stainless steel dishwasher, range, microwave, refrigerator. New countertops and sink. New six panel doors. New Carpet. New windows. New click and lock vinyl flooring. Air conditioner and furnace are new. Has a back porch / deck that faces trees. Sit outside in solitude! Great house with low property taxes. Location is great right by the Bluffs! Small shed in back yard. Street is only about a block long and it dead ends. Great house! Property is agent owned.

17. 2019-10-07
    status Active 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Great home with a lot of room! So much NEW! New stainless steel dishwasher, range, microwave, refrigerator. New countertops and sink. New six panel doors. New Carpet. New windows. New click and lock vinyl flooring. Air conditioner and furnace are new. Has a back porch / deck that faces trees. Sit outside in solitude! Great house with low property taxes. Location is great right by the Bluffs! Small shed in back yard. Street is only about a block long and it dead ends. Great house! Property is agent owned.

18. 2019-09-30
    status Pending 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Great home with a lot of room! So much NEW! New stainless steel dishwasher, range, microwave, refrigerator. New countertops and sink. New six panel doors. New Carpet. New windows. New click and lock vinyl flooring. Air conditioner and furnace are new. Has a back porch / deck that faces trees. Sit outside in solitude! Great house with low property taxes. Location is great right by the Bluffs! Small shed in back yard. Street is only about a block long and it dead ends. Great house! Property is agent owned.

19. 2019-09-17
    listed $99,000 Active 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Great home with a lot of room! So much NEW! New stainless steel dishwasher, range, microwave, refrigerator. New countertops and sink. New six panel doors. New Carpet. New windows. New click and lock vinyl flooring. Air conditioner and furnace are new. Has a back porch / deck that faces trees. Sit outside in solitude! Great house with low property taxes. Location is great right by the Bluffs! Small shed in back yard. Street is only about a block long and it dead ends. Great house! Property is agent owned.

20. 2019-07-02
    soldstatus
21. 2013-04-19
    soldstatus
22. 2013-01-30
    listed $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $885 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$520/yr (+$43/mo · 58.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$885
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,428
• − Management: −$1,428
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $952
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$228
• After-tax cash flow: $3,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fox C-6
• NCES district ID: 2912300
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,849
• Composite: 37.54/100
• National rank: #4392
• State rank: #103 of 324 in MO

Livability — Murphy

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #18506

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murphy, MO
• County: Jefferson County · 108,544 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 45,354
• Household income: $97,553
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 513.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.59%
• Current HPI: 211.8944
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.72%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+935.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $144,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $149,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Listed $155,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-10 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-28 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-07 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-30 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-17 Listed $99,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-04-19 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-30 Listed $14,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $885 · +59.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.