16236 W Scarlet Canyon Dr · Surprise, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (shaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 113°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 18 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Cash flow +8.1/30.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Schools +3.3/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- 1% rule +2.3/10.0
- DSCR +2.1/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$355,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Welcome home to your charming Lantana model home, 2 bedrooms/ 2 bathrooms on elevated lot, immaculately cared for and freshly painted interior top to bottom! Enjoy the wide-open great room with an ideal kitchen layout lending itself to entertaining and family gatherings, Step out into your private backyard with mature foliage, and a covered patio. The Grand offers resort style living with 4 gorgeous golf courses, 2 large workout facilities with multiple indoor and outdoor pools, numerous activities and amenities! Plan to fall in love!
Key facts
- Ideal kitchen layout
- Mature foliage
- Private backyard
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $355k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-347 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (17.2% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (27.3% below list).
- Recommended offer: $258k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
- Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: Rents flat; 399 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 5 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $200k; list at $355k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.73% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.12%
- Cash-on-cash
- -4.18%
- DSCR
- 0.81
- GRM
- 11.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $437,860
- List price
- $355,000
- Delta
- -18.92%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16305 W Boulder Dr | 0.18mi | 2/2.0 | 1,530 (-1%) | 1mo | $460,000 | $301 | 85 |
| 19411 N Hidden Canyon Dr | 0.14mi | 2/2.0 | 1,613 (+4%) | 3mo | $420,000 | $260 | 80 |
| 19513 N Papago Dr | 0.30mi | 2/2.0 | 1,627 (+5%) | 2mo | $374,000 | $230 | 71 |
| 19595 N Sunburst Way | 0.39mi | 2/2.0 | 1,627 (+5%) | 4mo | $340,000 | $209 | 66 |
| 17709 N Somerset Dr | 0.65mi | 2/2.0 | 1,546 (0%) | 3mo | $345,000 | $223 | 63 |
| 19732 N Mountain Sage Ln | 0.34mi | 2/2.0 | 1,418 (-8%) | 4mo | $386,000 | $272 | 62 |
| 19877 N Crimson Ridge Way | 0.56mi | 2/2.0 | 1,627 (+5%) | 0mo | $420,000 | $258 | 61 |
| 15813 W Alpine Ridge Dr | 0.58mi | 2/2.0 | 1,495 (-3%) | 3mo | $365,000 | $244 | 61 |
| 15818 W Lahlum Ln | 0.62mi | 2/2.0 | 1,495 (-3%) | 2mo | $390,000 | $261 | 60 |
| 17981 N Adobe Mesa Ct | 0.46mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,712 (+11%) | 2mo | $370,000 | $216 | 50 |
| 15883 W Cisa Rio Ln | 0.75mi | 2/2.0 | 1,414 (-8%) | 3mo | $375,000 | $265 | 44 |
| 15712 W Eucalyptus Ct | 0.65mi | 3/3.0 (+1) | 1,712 (+11%) | 4mo | $365,000 | $213 | 44 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -26.5%
- Equity multiple
- 0.13×
- Total profit
- $-86,816
- Equity at exit
- $52,932
- IRR
- -36.6%
- Equity multiple
- -0.33×
- Total profit
- $-132,000
- Equity at exit
- $30,694
Cash invested: $99,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 85374
- Home prices YoY
- -18.3%
- Rents YoY
- 0.1%
- Active inventory
- 399
- Price-to-rent
- 11.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,580 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,862
- Tax from tax record
- −$215 /mo · $2,579/yr
- Insurance
- −$148
- HOA
- −$160
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$542
- Net cashflow
- $-347
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $88,750
- Closing costs
- $10,650
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16215 W Desert Winds Dr Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1183 | $2,800 | $2.37 | 44d | 1 | 0.17mi |
| 16426 W Boulder Vista Dr Unit 1546454P Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1625 | $4,436 | $2.73 | 15d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 16270 W Cactus Valley Ln Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1338 | $1,875 | $1.40 | 44d | 1 | 0.36mi |
| 18121 N Key Estrella Dr Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1909 | $3,500 | $1.83 | 44d | 1 | 0.36mi |
| 18277 N Estrella Vista Dr Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1870 | $3,500 | $1.87 | 44d | 1 | 0.46mi |
| 16344 W Crater Ln Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1495 | $3,200 | $2.14 | 44d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 15732 W Spring Tree Way Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1934 | $3,500 | $1.81 | 44d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 20046 N Hearthstone Dr Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1934 | $3,800 | $1.96 | 44d | 1 | 0.72mi |
| 15866 W Cisa Rio Ln Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1414 | $3,200 | $2.26 | 44d | 1 | 0.72mi |
| 15883 W Cisa Rio Ln Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1414 | $2,200 | $1.56 | 44d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 15913 W Clearwater Way Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1546 | $3,000 | $1.94 | 44d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 17783 N El Dorado Way Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1647 | $2,100 | $1.28 | 44d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 15893 W Arrowhead Dr Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1099 | $1,700 | $1.55 | 5d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 17460 N Estrella Vista Dr Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1627 | $3,200 | $1.97 | 44d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 16248 W Tuscany Way Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1909 | $2,500 | $1.31 | 44d | 1 | 0.92mi |
| 17824 N Stone Haven Dr Unit 1546271P Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2012 | $1,817 | $0.90 | 13d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 15847 W Bridgewood Dr Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2200 | $3,850 | $1.75 | 44d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 16926 W Nottingham Way Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1430 | $1,850 | $1.29 | 2d | 1 | 1.00mi |
| 20054 N Painted Sky Dr Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1598 | $3,200 | $2.00 | 24d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 16536 W Rock Springs Ln Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1414 | $1,995 | $1.41 | 11d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 16149 W Quail Creek Ln Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1255 | $2,000 | $1.59 | 44d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 19352 N Vista Montana Ct Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1262 | $1,895 | $1.50 | 13d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 19326 N Tallowood Way Unit 1546399P Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1894 | $2,185 | $1.15 | 15d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 15628 W Hidden Creek Ln Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1627 | $3,600 | $2.21 | 44d | 1 | 1.12mi |
| 15448 W Moonlight Way Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1262 | $4,200 | $3.33 | 44d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 16171 W Wildflower Dr Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1278 | $3,200 | $2.50 | 18d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 15619 W Vista Grande Ln Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1370 | $3,500 | $2.55 | 44d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 18651 N Salerno Ct Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1178 | $1,650 | $1.40 | 44d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 17838 N Navarro Ct Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1143 | $2,800 | $2.45 | 44d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 17057 W Manchester Dr Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1681 | $1,695 | $1.01 | 11d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 16755 N Sarival Ave Surprise, AZ | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1015 | $2,042 | $2.01 | 1d | 1 | 1.24mi |
| 16723 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1320 | $2,600 | $1.97 | 24d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 15724 W Smokey Dr Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1220 | $1,800 | $1.48 | 24d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 16719 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1320 | $1,795 | $1.36 | 24d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 15738 W Elm St Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1220 | $1,595 | $1.31 | 24d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 15285 W Melissa Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1504 | $2,090 | $1.39 | 44d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 16712 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1199 | $1,750 | $1.46 | 11d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 16712 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1200 | $1,850 | $1.54 | 24d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 15306 W Eureka Trl Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1289 | $1,999 | $1.55 | 44d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 15743 W Elm St Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1065 | $2,500 | $2.35 | 5d | 1 | 1.34mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $160 · $1,920/yr
- Likely covers
- pool
Listing history 19 events
-
2026-04-25price $355,000 542-char remark
Show marketing remark (542 chars)
Welcome home to your charming Lantana model home, 2 bedrooms/ 2 bathrooms on elevated lot, immaculately cared for and freshly painted interior top to bottom! Enjoy the wide-open great room with an ideal kitchen layout lending itself to entertaining and family gatherings, Step out into your private backyard with mature foliage, and a covered patio. The Grand offers resort style living with 4 gorgeous golf courses, 2 large workout facilities with multiple indoor and outdoor pools, numerous activities and amenities! Plan to fall in love!
-
2026-04-01price $360,000 542-char remark
Show marketing remark (542 chars)
Welcome home to your charming Lantana model home, 2 bedrooms/ 2 bathrooms on elevated lot, immaculately cared for and freshly painted interior top to bottom! Enjoy the wide-open great room with an ideal kitchen layout lending itself to entertaining and family gatherings, Step out into your private backyard with mature foliage, and a covered patio. The Grand offers resort style living with 4 gorgeous golf courses, 2 large workout facilities with multiple indoor and outdoor pools, numerous activities and amenities! Plan to fall in love!
-
2026-03-27price $370,000 542-char remark
Show marketing remark (542 chars)
Welcome home to your charming Lantana model home, 2 bedrooms/ 2 bathrooms on elevated lot, immaculately cared for and freshly painted interior top to bottom! Enjoy the wide-open great room with an ideal kitchen layout lending itself to entertaining and family gatherings, Step out into your private backyard with mature foliage, and a covered patio. The Grand offers resort style living with 4 gorgeous golf courses, 2 large workout facilities with multiple indoor and outdoor pools, numerous activities and amenities! Plan to fall in love!
-
2026-03-06$380,000 Active 542-char remark
Show marketing remark (542 chars)
Welcome home to your charming Lantana model home, 2 bedrooms/ 2 bathrooms on elevated lot, immaculately cared for and freshly painted interior top to bottom! Enjoy the wide-open great room with an ideal kitchen layout lending itself to entertaining and family gatherings, Step out into your private backyard with mature foliage, and a covered patio. The Grand offers resort style living with 4 gorgeous golf courses, 2 large workout facilities with multiple indoor and outdoor pools, numerous activities and amenities! Plan to fall in love!
-
2010-02-05soldstatus $200,000 798-char remark
Show marketing remark (798 chars)
What a great location. This move in ready Lantana model with Den area features a front courtyard with view and tinted windows throughout. 16 inch tile in the dining area, kitchen, and utility room, pantry and bathrooms. Kitchen has upgraded appliances, new faucet and Oak cabinets, as well as a pantry. The garage is extended and has built in ceiling to floor storage cabinets and work bench. Extended patio has Kool decking overlooking a beautifully landscaped backyard. Master has bay window, walk in closet, and dual sinks. Exterior was painted in 2006. Home has a five year termite warranty, vertical blinds and window treatments throughout as well as raised panel doors. Any furniture conveyed will not be part of the RE transaction. A seperate bill of sale will be written outside of escrow.
-
2010-02-03soldstatus $200,000
-
2009-10-08historical 798-char remark
Show marketing remark (798 chars)
What a great location. This move in ready Lantana model with Den area features a front courtyard with view and tinted windows throughout. 16 inch tile in the dining area, kitchen, and utility room, pantry and bathrooms. Kitchen has upgraded appliances, new faucet and Oak cabinets, as well as a pantry. The garage is extended and has built in ceiling to floor storage cabinets and work bench. Extended patio has Kool decking overlooking a beautifully landscaped backyard. Master has bay window, walk in closet, and dual sinks. Exterior was painted in 2006. Home has a five year termite warranty, vertical blinds and window treatments throughout as well as raised panel doors. Any furniture conveyed will not be part of the RE transaction. A seperate bill of sale will be written outside of escrow.
-
2008-11-26$215,000 798-char remark
Show marketing remark (798 chars)
What a great location. This move in ready Lantana model with Den area features a front courtyard with view and tinted windows throughout. 16 inch tile in the dining area, kitchen, and utility room, pantry and bathrooms. Kitchen has upgraded appliances, new faucet and Oak cabinets, as well as a pantry. The garage is extended and has built in ceiling to floor storage cabinets and work bench. Extended patio has Kool decking overlooking a beautifully landscaped backyard. Master has bay window, walk in closet, and dual sinks. Exterior was painted in 2006. Home has a five year termite warranty, vertical blinds and window treatments throughout as well as raised panel doors. Any furniture conveyed will not be part of the RE transaction. A seperate bill of sale will be written outside of escrow.
-
2008-10-23historical
-
2008-07-23$258,900
-
2005-06-07soldstatus $269,900
-
2005-06-07soldstatus $269,900
-
2005-04-06historical
-
2005-04-01$269,900
-
2003-10-29soldstatus $149,900
-
2003-10-28soldstatus $149,000
-
2003-09-30historical
-
2003-09-29$149,900
-
1998-09-01soldstatus $137,247
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $2,579 · $215/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,579 · $215/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $30,956
- − Mortgage interest
- −$19,886
- − Property taxes
- −$2,579
- − Insurance
- −$1,775
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,476
- − Management
- −$2,476
- − HOA
- −$1,920
- − Depreciation
- −$10,327
- Taxable loss
- −$10,483
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,516
- After-tax cash flow
- $-1,642/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Dysart Unified District (4243)
- NCES district ID
- 0402690
- Math proficiency
- 34% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 40% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $58,033
- Composite
- 32.76/100
- National rank
- #5634
- State rank
- #73 of 249 in AZ
Livability — Surprise
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #19
- US rank
- #4616
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Surprise, AZ
- County
- Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
- City population
- 160,031
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 41,420
- Household income
- $81,201
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1120.0
Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 4,979,203 people
- By 2030
- 5,378,229 · +8.0%
- By 2040
- 6,156,598 · +23.6%
- By 2050
- 6,872,376 · +38.0%
- By 2075
- 8,401,270 · +68.7%
- By 2100
- 9,247,439 · +85.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (78%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 10%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 8% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%
Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -56.93%
- Current HPI
- 254.7782
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 0.14%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
||
Price history
+158.7% since first listed19 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-25 Price Changed $355,000 ARMLS
- 2026-04-01 Price Changed $360,000 ARMLS
- 2026-03-27 Price Changed $370,000 ARMLS
- 2026-03-06 Listed $380,000 ARMLS
- 2010-02-05 Sold (MLS) $200,000 ARMLS
- 2010-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
- 2009-10-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
- 2008-11-26 Listed $215,000 ARMLS
- 2008-10-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
- 2008-07-23 Listed $258,900 ARMLS
- 2005-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $269,900 Public Records
- 2005-06-07 Sold (MLS) $269,900 ARMLS
- 2005-04-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
- 2005-04-01 Listed $269,900 ARMLS
- 2003-10-29 Sold (MLS) $149,900 ARMLS
- 2003-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $149,000 Public Records
- 2003-09-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
- 2003-09-29 Listed $149,900 ARMLS
- 1998-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $137,247 Public Records
Property tax history
+3.6%/yrLatest (2025): $2,579 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…