290 Moonlight Graham Blvd · Ward, AR 72176

$215,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,586 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 6,534 sqft lot Est $211k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Exquisite Elkins plan in Moonlight Meadows, located in Ward, AR! These new construction homes feature modern finishes for comfortable living! Homes will have LVP flooring and carpet. In the kitchen and bathrooms, you’ll find beautiful granite countertops. Each home will feature Hardie® siding per plan. These homes come with a programmable thermostat! 10-year limited Homebuyer’s Warranty! Photos may be stock photos, representative of plan only and may vary as built. Annual taxes is an estimate. Taxes are TBD. HOA fees $300! $75 HOA transfer fee. Special Improvement Tax of $495 annually.

Key facts

• Hardie siding
• Lvp flooring
• Granite countertops

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• HARDIE SIDING
• PROGRAMMABLE THERMOSTAT
• DETACHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing available: VA, FHA, Conventional, or Cash; Annual special improvement tax: $495
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage for 2 cars
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: New construction; Single-family property
• Construction: Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton
• Exterior features: Hardie board exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Paved road access; Lot in subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Electric range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Smoke detectors; Granite slab kitchen counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ward Central Elementary (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 494 students, 62% FRL); Cabot High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #64 of 292 statewide, top 26%, 2,198 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 30% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,819 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.21%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,938
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,586 (0%)	1mo	$215,000	$136	93
450 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,586 (0%)	3mo	$200,000	$126	90
490 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,586 (0%)	2mo	$204,000	$129	89
341 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,586 (0%)	1mo	$193,000	$122	83
391 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,586 (0%)	1mo	$193,000	$122	83
460 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,489 (-6%)	1mo	$200,000	$134	67
3 Moonlight Cv	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,485 (-6%)	9mo	$197,900	$133	67
7 Sunshine Ln	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,449 (-9%)	4mo	$192,000	$133	66
500 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,489 (-6%)	4mo	$211,000	$142	64
31 Crosswind Cv	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,767 (+11%)	3mo	$230,000	$130	61
480 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,435 (-10%)	5mo	$196,000	$137	61
19 Libra Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,773 (+12%)	7mo	$309,000	$174	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $34,134
• Equity at exit: $126,495

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $118,490
• Equity at exit: $222,264

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72176

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,518 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,912

Max offer price $169,933

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Gold Meadows Loop Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,300	$0.88	23d	1	0.16mi
21 Windsor Park Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,500	$1.04	23d	1	0.43mi
21 Weatherwood Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,300	$1.12	23d	1	0.57mi
29 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	18d	1	0.66mi
23 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,450	$1.20	23d	1	0.68mi
65 Birchwood Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,650	$1.27	21d	1	0.96mi
21 Kasidyann Ct Ward, AR	4.0	2.0	1415	$1,795	$1.27	23d	1	1.04mi
561 Brewer St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	44d	1	1.17mi
33 Langford St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,300	$1.11	23d	1	1.37mi
14 Stephens St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,395	$1.24	43d	1	1.39mi
39 Bud Grimes Rd Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,550	$1.19	18d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $215,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,218
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,457
• − Management: −$1,457
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$7,595
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,823
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Ward

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #8464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 8,678
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,678
• Household income: $68,840
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Current HPI: 208.9387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $215,000 CARMLS