9656 Williamsburg Dr · Birmingham, AL 35215

$46,800

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · Townhouse public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1986 3,049 sqft lot $22/sqft · 73% below area ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the established Williamsburg community of Center Point, this townhome offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their own personal touch or invest in a property with long-term potential. The home features a functional layout with spacious living areas and a layout that lends itself well to customization. With the right vision, this property can be transformed to meet a variety of needs—whether as a primary residence or an investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, providing easy access to Birmingham and surrounding areas. Don’t miss the chance to secure a property in a well-established location with strong upside potential.

Key facts

• Built 1986
• Listed 44 days

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• EASY ACCESS TO BIRMINGHAM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $47k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $666 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $47k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.4% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $324 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,396 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.02%
• DSCR: 3.71
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,692
• List price: $46,800
• Delta: -58.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $34,926
• Equity at exit: $6,978

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.51×
• Total profit: $85,354
• Equity at exit: $4,046

Cash invested: $13,104 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$245
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $756/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $666

Break-even live

Break-even rent $415

Max offer price $46,800

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,700
• Closing costs: $1,404
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8416 Division Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,350	$0.92	43d	1	1.39mi
929 Meadowbrook Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1649	$1,200	$0.73	11d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $46,800 Pending 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $46,800 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $46,800 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $46,800 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $46,800 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-04-20
   listed $46,800 Active 710-char remark

   Show marketing remark (710 chars)

   Located in the established Williamsburg community of Center Point, this townhome offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their own personal touch or invest in a property with long-term potential. The home features a functional layout with spacious living areas and a layout that lends itself well to customization. With the right vision, this property can be transformed to meet a variety of needs—whether as a primary residence or an investment opportunity. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, providing easy access to Birmingham and surrounding areas. Don’t miss the chance to secure a property in a well-established location with strong upside potential.

7. 2007-03-27
   soldstatus $78,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $756 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $756 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,622
• − Property taxes: −$756
• − Insurance: −$234
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,208
• − Management: −$1,208
• − Depreciation: −$1,361
• Taxable income: $7,713
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,851
• After-tax cash flow: $6,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,903
• Household income: $52,793
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1729.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.97%
• Current HPI: 215.0607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-40.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $46,800 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2007-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $78,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $756 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.