444 Ketchum Rd · Blountsville, AL 35031

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 271 Days on market

Built 1965 0.50 ac lot $55/sqft · 37% below area Est $104k · 37% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bed, 1 bath property has an estimated ARV of $170,000, making it a prime candidate for a profitable flip or rental hold. The enclosed garage is already in place and ready for conversion—offering an easy path to additional square footage, a potential third bedroom, or bonus space to significantly boost value and returns. With the right updates, this property can be quickly repositioned for resale or long-term cash flow. Opportunities like this don’t last—bring your vision and maximize the potential. The home offers bonus space that can be converted into finished square footage if desired. Covered front porch.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Private backyard
• Bonus space

Tags

• BONUS SPACE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($889 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#114 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Blount County (rural): math 20% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #54 of 129 in AL (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Blount County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Blount County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 271 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 271 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.47%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,735
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -37.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $9,215
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $33,392
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35031

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $284/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $496

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $347	-5% $329	+0% $310	+5% $292	+10% $274
Rent	-10% $240	-5% $275	+0% $310	+5% $346	+10% $381
Rate	-1.0pp $343	-0.5pp $327	base $310	+0.5pp $294	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 271 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 268 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 267 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 266 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 265 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 263 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 260 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 259 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 258 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 257 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 254 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 253 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 252 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 251 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 250 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $65,000 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    This 2 bed, 1 bath property has an estimated ARV of $170,000, making it a prime candidate for a profitable flip or rental hold. The enclosed garage is already in place and ready for conversion—offering an easy path to additional square footage, a potential third bedroom, or bonus space to significantly boost value and returns. With the right updates, this property can be quickly repositioned for resale or long-term cash flow. Opportunities like this don’t last—bring your vision and maximize the potential. The home offers bonus space that can be converted into finished square footage if desired. Covered front porch.

17. 2026-02-20
    price $68,000 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    This 2 bed, 1 bath property has an estimated ARV of $170,000, making it a prime candidate for a profitable flip or rental hold. The enclosed garage is already in place and ready for conversion—offering an easy path to additional square footage, a potential third bedroom, or bonus space to significantly boost value and returns. With the right updates, this property can be quickly repositioned for resale or long-term cash flow. Opportunities like this don’t last—bring your vision and maximize the potential. The home offers bonus space that can be converted into finished square footage if desired. Covered front porch.

18. 2026-01-07
    price $72,000 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    This 2 bed, 1 bath property has an estimated ARV of $170,000, making it a prime candidate for a profitable flip or rental hold. The enclosed garage is already in place and ready for conversion—offering an easy path to additional square footage, a potential third bedroom, or bonus space to significantly boost value and returns. With the right updates, this property can be quickly repositioned for resale or long-term cash flow. Opportunities like this don’t last—bring your vision and maximize the potential. The home offers bonus space that can be converted into finished square footage if desired. Covered front porch.

19. 2025-10-20
    price $77,000 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    This 2 bed, 1 bath property has an estimated ARV of $170,000, making it a prime candidate for a profitable flip or rental hold. The enclosed garage is already in place and ready for conversion—offering an easy path to additional square footage, a potential third bedroom, or bonus space to significantly boost value and returns. With the right updates, this property can be quickly repositioned for resale or long-term cash flow. Opportunities like this don’t last—bring your vision and maximize the potential. The home offers bonus space that can be converted into finished square footage if desired. Covered front porch.

20. 2025-09-23
    listed $82,000 Active 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    This 2 bed, 1 bath property has an estimated ARV of $170,000, making it a prime candidate for a profitable flip or rental hold. The enclosed garage is already in place and ready for conversion—offering an easy path to additional square footage, a potential third bedroom, or bonus space to significantly boost value and returns. With the right updates, this property can be quickly repositioned for resale or long-term cash flow. Opportunities like this don’t last—bring your vision and maximize the potential. The home offers bonus space that can be converted into finished square footage if desired. Covered front porch.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $284 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $284 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$284
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$853
• − Management: −$853
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $2,817
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$676
• After-tax cash flow: $3,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blount County
• NCES district ID: 0100420
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,961
• Composite: 27.79/100
• National rank: #6891
• State rank: #54 of 129 in AL

Livability — Blountsville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #114
• US rank: #12267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blountsville, AL
• Population (ZIP): 7,937

Population outlook (Blount County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,983 people
• By 2030: 57,405 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 55,602 · -4.1%
• By 2050: 53,393 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 48,248 · -16.8%
• By 2100: 44,190 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Blount

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+81.0) · D 9.2% · R 90.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -69.5pp · 2024: -81.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+81.0 2020: R+80.0 2016: R+81.4 2012: R+74.1 2008: R+69.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.41%
• Current HPI: 221.23
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-20.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $65,000 SAARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $68,000 SAARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $72,000 SAARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $77,000 SAARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $82,000 SAARMLS