4027 Lowell Ln · Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1979 0.60 ac lot Est $86k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Scattered oaks make this mobiloe home a very attractive place to live. It has the quiet that you look for. Plenty of extra 2 car carport, attached 1 car carport, and additional storage shed. Modern appliances are part of the deal.

Key facts

• No lot rent
• Spacious lot
• Own the land

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• AMPLE SPACE
• NO LOT RENT
• OWN THE LAND
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.6 acre (dirt road access)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Northeast facing; Residential property
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Approximately 720 sq ft living area
• Exterior features: Storage; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Wall/Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $110k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.86%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $85,680
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37706 March Ln	0.65mi	2/1.5	672 (-7%)	9mo	$80,000	$119	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-353
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $11,330
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,458 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,462/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,027

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37925 Date Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.5	720	$1,300	$1.81	24d	1	0.84mi
4833 Royal Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,090	$1.62	24d	1	1.06mi
4412 Plum St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,100	$1.76	24d	1	1.11mi
4410 Plum St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,100	$1.76	24d	1	1.11mi
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	21d	1	1.19mi
4352 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	494	$1,100	$2.23	24d	1	1.23mi
38044 6th Ave Unit 38044 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	494	$950	$1.92	24d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $110,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $115,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $120,000 Active
15. 2016-10-11
    soldstatus $40,000
16. 2011-10-21
    soldstatus $39,000 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Scattered oaks make this mobiloe home a very attractive place to live. It has the quiet that you look for. Plenty of extra 2 car carport, attached 1 car carport, and additional storage shed. Modern appliances are part of the deal.

17. 2011-10-17
    soldstatus $39,000
18. 2011-09-06
    listed $39,000 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Scattered oaks make this mobiloe home a very attractive place to live. It has the quiet that you look for. Plenty of extra 2 car carport, attached 1 car carport, and additional storage shed. Modern appliances are part of the deal.

19. 2010-10-08
    listed $43,000
20. 2007-03-06
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,462
• − Insurance: −$1,348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,399
• − Management: −$1,399
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $2,522
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$605
• After-tax cash flow: $3,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills West, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2011-10-21 Sold (MLS) $39,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 2011-09-06 Listed $39,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-08 Listed $43,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,462 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.