14206 Bonham Oaks Ln · Pearland, TX 77047

$245,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,898 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2005 4,691 sqft lot Est $273k · 10% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This desirable 4 bedroom house in the Brunswick Meadows neighborhood is ready for you to move in! The roof was recently replaced, along with a freshly painted exterior and interior. The yard has a sprinkler system, helping to ensure a nice lawn year round. The separate space upstairs allows for a second media room, game room, or whatever you could imagine to create two separate spaces for socializing. The house is a short walk from the neighborhood park. It is also close enough to Beltway 8 and 288 for easy access anywhere in the city, though far enough away for a quiet night at home. Come see your new home today!

Key facts

• Sprinkler system
• 4,691 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• RECENTLY REPLACED ROOF
• FRESHLY PAINTED EXTERIOR
• FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• SEPARATE SPACE UPSTAIRS
• EASY ACCESS TO BELTWAY 8

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Member of Brunswick Mdws (managed by Beacon Res Mgmt); Annual association fee of $394

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2005; Single-family design; Slab foundation; Living area approximately 1,898
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13' x 12'); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (approx. 12' x 12'; 10.5' x 11.5'; 10.5' x 11')
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen open to family room; Primary bathroom; Pantry; 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-768/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Law El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 514 students, 91% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,089 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,312
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14311 Brunswick Point Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5	1,830 (-4%)	1mo	$269,000	$147	71
3211 Norville Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (-4%)	3mo	$260,000	$142	64
14018 Merganser Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,140 (+13%)	1mo	$300,000	$140	61
3123 Kainer Meadows Ln	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,135 (+12%)	3mo	$276,000	$129	58
14135 Concord Meadow Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,941 (+2%)	6mo	$265,900	$137	57
13914 Winthorpe Ct	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,140 (+13%)	1mo	$289,990	$136	56
13438 Sun Cay Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,802 (-5%)	3mo	$349,881	$194	55
2746 Trinity Glen Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-9%)	2mo	$248,700	$144	54
3526 Canvasback Ln	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,138 (+13%)	5mo	$275,000	$129	54
13935 Kenswick Key Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (-12%)	3mo	$287,500	$172	53
4114 Brunswick Crossing Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,959 (+3%)	5mo	$320,000	$163	51
13435 Sun Cay Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,727 (-9%)	2mo	$335,781	$194	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-50,442
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-74,899
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77047

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,331 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$486 /mo · $5,826/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,412

Max offer price $233,694

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $5	+0% $-64	+5% $-133	+10% $-203
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-156	+0% $-64	+5% $28	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $-2	base $-64	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3403 Orchid Trace Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1602	$1,920	$1.20	4d	1	0.22mi
3110 Kainer Meadows Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,900	$1.29	9d	1	0.41mi
13802 Greyfield Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2350	$2,400	$1.02	1d	1	0.57mi
13426 Sombrero Cay Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2108	$2,300	$1.09	45d	1	0.76mi
4111 Oakview Creek Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1885	$2,150	$1.14	45d	1	0.99mi
3918 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,220	$2.14	0d	26	1.02mi
4023 Almond Lake Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,980	$1.40	45d	1	1.06mi
2920 Stamford Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,200	$1.30	45d	1	1.14mi
3020 Gunnersbury Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,499	$0.90	16d	1	1.18mi
2706 Skyview Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2464	$2,200	$0.89	4d	1	1.30mi
3013 Maughan Heights Trl Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2386	$5,000	$2.10	0d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 621-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $245,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,826 · $486/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,826 · $486/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$5,826
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,238
• − Management: −$2,238
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,803
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,153
• After-tax cash flow: $385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,987
• Household income: $78,538
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% White 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.76%
• Current HPI: 239.2287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+129.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2021-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-10-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-09-07 Listed $107,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,826 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.