128 Springy Banks Rd · Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$1,899,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily · 122 Days on market

Built 1999 Good condition 0.65 ac lot $1000/sqft · 9% below area Est $2.083M · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Exceptional East Hampton Retreat – Privacy, Space & Resort-Style Living Tucked away in a serene and highly sought-after East Hampton location, this beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of privacy, comfort, and effortless indoor-outdoor living. The main level features a bright, open-concept living space with seamless flow, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. A spacious first-floor primary suite is complemented by two additional bedrooms and a full bath, providing convenience and flexibility for guests.

Key facts

• 0.65 acre lot
• 5 parking spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.90M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($87k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $1.90M).
• Recommended offer: $1.67M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 7.8% in Northwest Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John M Marshall Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 548 students, 51% FRL); East Hampton Middle School (math 39% / reading 60%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 265 students, 42% FRL); East Hampton High School (math 94% / reading 98%, grade A+, #71 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,015 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,805/mo this rent would consume 220% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $57k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $532k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.67M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $1.90M implies a 3067% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,671,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.35%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,083,069
• List price: $1,899,999
• Delta: -8.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Oyster Shores Rd	0.51mi	4/4.5	2,202 (+16%)	12mo	$3,700,000	$1,680	35
23 Jonathan Dr	1.08mi	4/3.5	2,082 (+10%)	17mo	$1,700,000	$817	33
14 Hill Side Ln	1.01mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,211 (+16%)	7mo	$2,160,000	$977	27
12 Todd Dr	1.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,550 (-18%)	6mo	$1,450,000	$935	26
2 Musket Ln	1.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,200 (+16%)	7mo	$1,895,000	$861	26
12 Rivers Rd	0.79mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (-20%)	13mo	$1,550,000	$1,017	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $279,074
• Equity at exit: $283,296

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $1,407,719
• Equity at exit: $164,277

Cash invested: $532,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 2 under contract
• Median asking: $2,122,500 ($1039/sqft)
• Median days on market: 77 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,964
• Tax from tax record: −$801 /mo · $9,606/yr
• Insurance: −$792
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,999
• Net cashflow: $7,250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,628

Max offer price $1,899,999

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8,326	-5% $7,788	+0% $7,250	+5% $6,712	+10% $6,175
Rent	-10% $5,369	-5% $6,310	+0% $7,250	+5% $8,190	+10% $9,131
Rate	-1.0pp $8,207	-0.5pp $7,733	base $7,250	+0.5pp $6,758	+1.0pp $6,257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $475,000
• Closing costs: $57,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Forest Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$50,000	$28.57	73d	1	0.26mi
210 Treescape Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	2400	$25,000	$10.42	93d	1	0.47mi
202 Treescape Dr Unit 10B East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2200	$50,000	$22.73	73d	1	0.59mi
15 Rivers Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	4.0	2400	$45,000	$18.75	93d	1	0.78mi
20 Howard St East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$75,000	$37.50	71d	1	1.10mi
289 Three Mile Harbor Hog Creek Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.0	1600	$45,600	$28.50	93d	1	1.21mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking for up to 5 vehicles
• Utilities: Cesspool sewerCable connectedElectricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Cedar, shake siding and wood siding exterior
• Exterior features: Private poolNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas ovenGas rangeRefrigeratorStainless steel appliancesEat-in kitchen with breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningForced air heatingNatural gas heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomFirst-floor full bathBreakfast barCathedral ceilingsEat-in kitchenPrimary bathroomMaster suite on the main levelFull basementCrawl attic
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $1,899,999 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $1,899,999 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $1,899,999 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $1,899,999 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $1,899,999 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $1,899,999 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $1,899,999 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $1,899,999 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $1,899,999 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 100 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 99 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 98 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 97 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 96 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 95 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 94 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 93 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 92 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 90 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 89 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 88 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 87 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $1,899,999 Active 86 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    price $1,899,999 Active 85 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 85 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 84 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 83 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 82 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 81 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 80 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 79 DOM
39. 2026-06-24
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 77 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 75 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 74 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 71 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 70 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 69 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 68 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 66 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 65 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 62 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,999,999 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,606 · $801/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $20,858 · $1,738/mo
• Expected delta: +$11,252/yr (+$938/mo · 117.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $285,661
• − Mortgage interest: −$106,429
• − Property taxes: −$9,606
• − Insurance: −$9,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,853
• − Management: −$22,853
• − Depreciation: −$55,273
• Taxable income: $59,147
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$14,195
• After-tax cash flow: $72,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,500–$28,500 screening

This home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It has a good roof, siding, and foundation. The landscaping and curb appeal are attractive. Minor maintenance and cosmetic updates can further enhance its value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good Flooring hardwood

Deferred maintenance Est. $2,500–$10,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Windows (windows) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Electrical (electrical) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Plumbing (plumbing) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Exterior (exterior) — No visible signs of damage or wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Trim the bushes and trees — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Both Clean the gutters — Clean gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 68/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary John M Marshall Elementary School B- NY #745/2,108 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle East Hampton Middle School C NY #280/729 Nat'l #3,585/14,009 High East Hampton High School A+ NY #71/1,100 Nat'l #103/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Northwest Harbor

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #19577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 21,806
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking for up to 5 vehicles
• Utilities: Cesspool sewerCable connectedElectricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Cedar, shake siding and wood siding exterior
• Exterior features: Private poolNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas ovenGas rangeRefrigeratorStainless steel appliancesEat-in kitchen with breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningForced air heatingNatural gas heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomFirst-floor full bathBreakfast barCathedral ceilingsEat-in kitchenPrimary bathroomMaster suite on the main levelFull basementCrawl attic
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

+3066.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-02 Price Changed $1,899,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $1,999,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-29 Listed $1,599,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-04 Listed $1,599,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-21 Listed $850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,606 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.