21601 Canyon #21 · Wildomar, CA 92595

$142,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 862 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $165/sqft · 34% below area Est $215k · 34% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover comfortable, low-maintenance living in this brand-new 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in a welcoming 55+ community. Designed with modern finishes and an open-concept layout, this beautiful home offers a bright and spacious living area, stylish kitchen, and comfortable bedrooms perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a thoughtfully designed floor plan with plenty of natural light and contemporary touches throughout. Residents of the community enjoy access to fantastic amenities including a clubhouse, recreation room, and sparkling swimming pool — perfect for socializing, staying active, or simply unwinding. Conveniently located near shopping,

Key facts

• Bright living area
• Stylish kitchen
• Natural light

Tags

• MODERN FINISHES
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• MOVE IN READY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a land-lease park (Canyon Homes)
• Financial info: Monthly land lease of $1,200
• HOA & community: Senior community; Manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Canyon Homes park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Mobile remains on site; Mobile dimensions approximately 20 ft by 44 ft; Entry at level 1; Suburban neighborhood
• Construction: Year built per builder source
• Exterior features: Community pool; Landscaped lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Single-level entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $142k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $808 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $142k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.3% in Wildomar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#951 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,740 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.39%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,000
• List price: $142,000
• Delta: -33.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $21,860
• Equity at exit: $21,173

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $59,800
• Equity at exit: $12,278

Cash invested: $39,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92595

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,265 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$178 /mo · $2,130/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $808

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,242

Max offer price $142,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,500
• Closing costs: $4,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $142,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $142,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $142,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $142,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $152,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $152,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $152,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $152,000 Active 903-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,954
• − Property taxes: −$2,130
• − Insurance: −$710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,175
• − Management: −$2,175
• − Depreciation: −$4,131
• Taxable income: $7,908
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,898
• After-tax cash flow: $7,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in a 55+ community is in excellent condition with modern finishes and an open-concept layout. It offers a bright and spacious living area, stylish kitchen, and comfortable bedrooms. The home is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and value
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Elsinore Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600027
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,829
• Composite: 37.01/100
• National rank: #4518
• State rank: #210 of 517 in CA

Livability — Wildomar

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #951
• US rank: #24427

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wildomar, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 34,438
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,438
• Household income: $106,047
• Rent vs Own: 21.0% rent · 79.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 429.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 25% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.47%
• Current HPI: 354.397
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.12%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-6.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $142,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $152,000 CRMLS