914 Mineshaft Dr · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$129,900

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 70 Days on market

Built 1997 1,686 sqft lot Est $185k · 30% under $227/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1 bed, 2 bath home on owned land--no land lease! This well-maintained property comes fully furnished and features an inviting Arizona room for added living space. Enjoy the convenience of an in-home washer and dryer, along with major updates including a new roof (2026) and new heat pump (2020). As an added bonus, a 2015 Chevy Sonic and golf cart may convey with the right offer, making this a truly unique opportunity.

Key facts

• New heat pump
• Arizona room
• Owned land

Tags

• OWNED LAND
• ARIZONA ROOM
• IN-HOME WASHER AND DRYER
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HEAT PUMP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available to the gated Golden Vista community (see listing)
• HOA & community: Association with quarterly fee of $680; Association covers grounds maintenance, street maintenance and trash; Community amenities include pool, community spa, community laundry, biking/walking path and fitness center; Association rule: no visible truck/trailer/RV/boat

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Security: Gated community with security guard
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding and wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Heated spa; No fencing; Lot features: none

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 possible bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath; 2 total bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Heat pump cooling; Central air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($68/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 354 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $130k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3710 S Goldfield Rd #93	0.07mi	1/1.5	825 (-8%)	3mo	$170,000	$206	80
241 Aquamarine Dr	0.17mi	1/2.0	825 (-8%)	1mo	$170,000	$206	75
117 Kaoline Dr #117	0.11mi	1/1.5	800 (-11%)	5mo	$146,000	$183	72
695 Felspar Dr	0.28mi	1/1.5	815 (-9%)	0mo	$160,000	$196	71
3301 S Goldfield Rd Rd #1009	0.37mi	2/2.0 (+1)	880 (-2%)	2mo	$85,000	$97	70
361 Felspar Dr	0.29mi	1/2.0	800 (-11%)	1mo	$184,500	$231	66
828 Beryl Dr	0.17mi	1/2.0	800 (-11%)	8mo	$180,000	$225	65
660 Gypsum Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (+1)	820 (-9%)	2mo	$195,000	$238	63
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2006	0.38mi	2/2.0 (+1)	968 (+8%)	2mo	$135,000	$139	61
611 Ironstone Dr	0.33mi	1/1.5	770 (-14%)	1mo	$125,000	$162	60
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2019	0.50mi	2/2.0 (+1)	946 (+5%)	5mo	$95,000	$100	58
591 S Ironstone Dr	0.36mi	1/2.0	800 (-11%)	7mo	$210,000	$263	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-22,410
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-25,906
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,270 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $423/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$227
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,263

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $42	+0% $6	+5% $-31	+10% $-68
Rent	-10% $-95	-5% $-45	+0% $6	+5% $56	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $39	base $6	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1540 E 25th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	13d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $227 · $2,724/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-04-09
    listed $129,900 Active
15. 2016-08-03
    soldstatus $62,500
16. 1996-05-20
    soldstatus $12,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $423 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $857 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$434/yr (+$36/mo · 102.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$423
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,219
• − Management: −$1,219
• − HOA: −$2,724
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$2,051
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$492
• After-tax cash flow: $560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 305.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+907.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $129,900 ARMLS
• 2016-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 1996-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $12,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $423 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.