8 Lavanda Ln · El Cerro Mission, NM 87031

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · Other · 4 Days on market

Built 2003 1.14 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 8 Lavanda Lane. A charming 3-bedroom home with scenic views of the Manzano Mountains and Tome Hill. The spacious layout offers a warm and inviting atmosphere, ready to be personalized by its new owner. With a little bit of TLC, this home has immense potential. Enjoy the peacefulness of rural living while being conveniently located to schools and just 10 minutes from shopping and dining options. Don't miss the opportunity to make this fantastic home yours today. This home is being sold AS IS, seller will not make repairs.

Key facts

• Breathtaking views
• Barn garage
• Large shed

Tags

• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• LARGE SHED
• BARN GARAGE
• INCREDIBLE CONVENIENCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 car)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Propane; Sewer connected (septic tank); Water connected (shared well)
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Single-story; Faces west; Resale condition
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Pitched shingle roof; Built by Cavco (model: Cavco)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Skirting; Leased propane tank; Shed(s); Located on a cul-de-sac; County road frontage with dirt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Forced air; Wood stove; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Single-pane windows; Main-level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#330 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 562 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.73%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $4,560
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $87,597
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87031

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 33.2%
• Active inventory: 562
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,403/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,581

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Calle Guaymas Los Lunas, NM	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,975	$1.48	23d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $199,999 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,999 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,999 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-02
   listed $199,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$197/yr (+$16/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,403
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $1,710
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$410
• After-tax cash flow: $4,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Lunas Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501680
• Math proficiency: 20% —
• Reading proficiency: 34% —
• Median HH income: $44,438
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #12724
• State rank: #34 of 95 in NM

Livability — El Cerro Mission

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #26434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Cerro Mission, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 47,514
• Household income: $60,902
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 30% Two or more races 29% Native American 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.17%
• Current HPI: 201.0508
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.16%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+53.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $199,999 Southwest MLS
• 2024-10-09 Delisted — Southwest MLS
• 2024-10-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-06-07 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2024-04-11 Listed $130,000 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,403 · +79.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.