1031 Morris Creek Rd · Point Blank, TX 77331

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 2001 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An ideal 10.01 unrestricted acres offering privacy, flexibility, and strong potential in a peaceful country setting just minutes from Lake Livingston and the Sam Houston National Forest. The property includes a 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home with approximately 2,560 sq ft, two living areas, and ample space for comfortable living or future improvements. Home will benefit from re-leveling and updates, presenting a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity. Corner tract with Morris Creek nearby provides natural surroundings and usable land suited for a variety of residential, recreational, or agricultural uses. Unrestricted properties with this acreage are increasingly difficult to find. Ideal for homesteaders, investors, or buyers seeking space to customize. Property is being sold AS-IS. Buyer to independently verify all measurements, schools, utilities, floodplain, and property condition.

Key facts

• Recreational uses
• Usable land
• Unrestricted acres

Tags

• UNRESTRICTED ACRES
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING
• NATURAL SURROUNDINGS
• USABLE LAND
• VARIETY OF RESIDENTIAL USES
• RECREATIONAL USES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.7% in Point Blank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,477 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, schools F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.91%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-26,665
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-15,673
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77331

• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,915 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,500/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,802

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $200,000 Pending 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $200,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   status Active 923-char remark

   Show marketing remark (923 chars)

   An ideal 10.01 unrestricted acres offering privacy, flexibility, and strong potential in a peaceful country setting just minutes from Lake Livingston and the Sam Houston National Forest. The property includes a 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home with approximately 2,560 sq ft, two living areas, and ample space for comfortable living or future improvements. Home will benefit from re-leveling and updates, presenting a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity. Corner tract with Morris Creek nearby provides natural surroundings and usable land suited for a variety of residential, recreational, or agricultural uses. Unrestricted properties with this acreage are increasingly difficult to find. Ideal for homesteaders, investors, or buyers seeking space to customize. Property is being sold AS-IS. Buyer to independently verify all measurements, schools, utilities, floodplain, and property condition.

8. 2026-05-01
   status Pending 923-char remark

   Show marketing remark (923 chars)

   An ideal 10.01 unrestricted acres offering privacy, flexibility, and strong potential in a peaceful country setting just minutes from Lake Livingston and the Sam Houston National Forest. The property includes a 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home with approximately 2,560 sq ft, two living areas, and ample space for comfortable living or future improvements. Home will benefit from re-leveling and updates, presenting a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity. Corner tract with Morris Creek nearby provides natural surroundings and usable land suited for a variety of residential, recreational, or agricultural uses. Unrestricted properties with this acreage are increasingly difficult to find. Ideal for homesteaders, investors, or buyers seeking space to customize. Property is being sold AS-IS. Buyer to independently verify all measurements, schools, utilities, floodplain, and property condition.

9. 2026-04-20
   price $200,000 923-char remark

   Show marketing remark (923 chars)

   An ideal 10.01 unrestricted acres offering privacy, flexibility, and strong potential in a peaceful country setting just minutes from Lake Livingston and the Sam Houston National Forest. The property includes a 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home with approximately 2,560 sq ft, two living areas, and ample space for comfortable living or future improvements. Home will benefit from re-leveling and updates, presenting a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity. Corner tract with Morris Creek nearby provides natural surroundings and usable land suited for a variety of residential, recreational, or agricultural uses. Unrestricted properties with this acreage are increasingly difficult to find. Ideal for homesteaders, investors, or buyers seeking space to customize. Property is being sold AS-IS. Buyer to independently verify all measurements, schools, utilities, floodplain, and property condition.

10. 2026-04-08
    price $215,000 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    An ideal 10.01 unrestricted acres offering privacy, flexibility, and strong potential in a peaceful country setting just minutes from Lake Livingston and the Sam Houston National Forest. The property includes a 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home with approximately 2,560 sq ft, two living areas, and ample space for comfortable living or future improvements. Home will benefit from re-leveling and updates, presenting a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity. Corner tract with Morris Creek nearby provides natural surroundings and usable land suited for a variety of residential, recreational, or agricultural uses. Unrestricted properties with this acreage are increasingly difficult to find. Ideal for homesteaders, investors, or buyers seeking space to customize. Property is being sold AS-IS. Buyer to independently verify all measurements, schools, utilities, floodplain, and property condition.

11. 2026-03-20
    price $239,000 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    An ideal 10.01 unrestricted acres offering privacy, flexibility, and strong potential in a peaceful country setting just minutes from Lake Livingston and the Sam Houston National Forest. The property includes a 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home with approximately 2,560 sq ft, two living areas, and ample space for comfortable living or future improvements. Home will benefit from re-leveling and updates, presenting a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity. Corner tract with Morris Creek nearby provides natural surroundings and usable land suited for a variety of residential, recreational, or agricultural uses. Unrestricted properties with this acreage are increasingly difficult to find. Ideal for homesteaders, investors, or buyers seeking space to customize. Property is being sold AS-IS. Buyer to independently verify all measurements, schools, utilities, floodplain, and property condition.

12. 2026-03-09
    price $249,000 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    An ideal 10.01 unrestricted acres offering privacy, flexibility, and strong potential in a peaceful country setting just minutes from Lake Livingston and the Sam Houston National Forest. The property includes a 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home with approximately 2,560 sq ft, two living areas, and ample space for comfortable living or future improvements. Home will benefit from re-leveling and updates, presenting a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity. Corner tract with Morris Creek nearby provides natural surroundings and usable land suited for a variety of residential, recreational, or agricultural uses. Unrestricted properties with this acreage are increasingly difficult to find. Ideal for homesteaders, investors, or buyers seeking space to customize. Property is being sold AS-IS. Buyer to independently verify all measurements, schools, utilities, floodplain, and property condition.

13. 2026-02-09
    listed $259,000 Active 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    An ideal 10.01 unrestricted acres offering privacy, flexibility, and strong potential in a peaceful country setting just minutes from Lake Livingston and the Sam Houston National Forest. The property includes a 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home with approximately 2,560 sq ft, two living areas, and ample space for comfortable living or future improvements. Home will benefit from re-leveling and updates, presenting a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity. Corner tract with Morris Creek nearby provides natural surroundings and usable land suited for a variety of residential, recreational, or agricultural uses. Unrestricted properties with this acreage are increasingly difficult to find. Ideal for homesteaders, investors, or buyers seeking space to customize. Property is being sold AS-IS. Buyer to independently verify all measurements, schools, utilities, floodplain, and property condition.

14. 2026-02-05
    historical
15. 2026-02-02
    status Active
16. 2026-01-14
    status Pending
17. 2026-01-11
    status Active
18. 2026-01-10
    status Pending
19. 2026-01-09
    status Active
20. 2025-12-29
    status Pending
21. 2025-11-25
    price
22. 2025-11-21
    price $279,700
23. 2025-11-11
    price $289,700
24. 2025-11-11
    price $279,000
25. 2025-11-04
    price
26. 2025-11-04
    price $289,000
27. 2025-10-27
    price $299,000
28. 2025-10-22
    price
29. 2025-10-07
    price $305,800
30. 2025-09-03
    listed $315,800 Active
31. 2025-08-29
    listed Active
32. 2016-10-25
    soldstatus
33. 2015-12-31
    historical
34. 2015-09-02
    price $169,000
35. 2015-07-20
    listed $139,900 Active
36. 2000-04-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,500 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$160/yr (+$13/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,500
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$531
• After-tax cash flow: $1,603/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Point Blank

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1477
• US rank: #25299

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,348

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.98%
• Current HPI: 199.0493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+43.0% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $279,700 HARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $289,700 HARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $305,800 HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $315,800 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2016-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-09-02 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2015-07-20 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2000-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,500 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.