105 Wagoner Ln · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$319,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1978 0.69 ac lot Est $290k · 10% over $233/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOVELY RANCH - 3 Bedroom 2 Baths, Home has a Fully Finished Basement, Deck, Utility Shed, Workshop. With this home you will have several heating options Pellet Stove, Insert in Fireplace and Electric. Large Lot with Greenland, easy access to Steerbarn, Tennis Courts and Pool. You are minutes from Route 84. BUYER PAYS 2% TRANSFER TAX AT CLOSING. , Beds Description: Primary1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Baths: 1 Bath Level 2, Eating Area: Dining Area, Eating Area: Semi-Modern KT, Sewer: WS Comm Central, Beds Description: 2+BED 2nd

Key facts

• Renovated
• Full basement
• Updated flooring

Tags

• RENOVATED
• UPDATED FLOORING
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE FULL BATHROOM
• FULL BASEMENT
• CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($2,800); Community pool; Association amenities include basketball court, tennis courts, spa/hot tub, playground, parking, indoor pool, gated entry, fitness center, clubhouse, security, beach rights

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Above-grade finished living area; Below-grade finished living area
• Exterior features: Private yard; Rear porch; Wood fencing; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Pellet stove
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (laundry in basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $320k implies a 276% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $250,000 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $289,952
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
138 West End Drive Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,491 (+7%)	5mo	$310,000	$208	69
106 Palomino Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (-1%)	0mo	$294,000	$214	65
801 Granite Ct S	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-6%)	4mo	$283,000	$217	62
101 Surrey Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+12%)	10mo	$243,000	$155	41
104 Black Birch Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,322 (-5%)	19mo	$240,000	$182	41
119 Overlook Ln	0.48mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,586 (+14%)	21mo	$290,600	$183	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $152,674
• Equity at exit: $288,280

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $466,874
• Equity at exit: $621,688

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,257/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$233
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,931

Max offer price $259,790

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
811 Hickory Ct Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	1d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $233 · $2,796/yr
• Likely covers: sewerelectricpool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,999 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,999 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,999 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,999 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,999 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,999 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,999 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,999 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,999 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,999 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $319,999 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $325,000 Active
16. 2015-03-13
    soldstatus $85,000 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    LOVELY MOVE IN CONDITION RANCH - 3 Bedroom 2 Baths, Home has a Fully Finished Basement, Deck, Utility Shed, Workshop. With this home you will have several heating options Pellet Stove, Insert in Fireplace and Electric. Large Lot with Greenland, easy access to Steerbarn, Tennis Courts and Pool. You are minutes from Route 84. BUYER PAYS 2% TRANSFER TAX AT CLOSING.

17. 2015-03-13
    soldstatus $85,000 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    LOVELY MOVE IN CONDITION RANCH - 3 Bedroom 2 Baths, Home has a Fully Finished Basement, Deck, Utility Shed, Workshop. With this home you will have several heating options Pellet Stove, Insert in Fireplace and Electric. Large Lot with Greenland, easy access to Steerbarn, Tennis Courts and Pool. You are minutes from Route 84. BUYER PAYS 2% TRANSFER TAX AT CLOSING.

18. 2014-12-16
    listed $85,000 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    LOVELY MOVE IN CONDITION RANCH - 3 Bedroom 2 Baths, Home has a Fully Finished Basement, Deck, Utility Shed, Workshop. With this home you will have several heating options Pellet Stove, Insert in Fireplace and Electric. Large Lot with Greenland, easy access to Steerbarn, Tennis Courts and Pool. You are minutes from Route 84. BUYER PAYS 2% TRANSFER TAX AT CLOSING.

19. 2014-12-16
    listed $85,000 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    LOVELY MOVE IN CONDITION RANCH - 3 Bedroom 2 Baths, Home has a Fully Finished Basement, Deck, Utility Shed, Workshop. With this home you will have several heating options Pellet Stove, Insert in Fireplace and Electric. Large Lot with Greenland, easy access to Steerbarn, Tennis Courts and Pool. You are minutes from Route 84. BUYER PAYS 2% TRANSFER TAX AT CLOSING.

20. 2011-07-12
    historical
21. 2011-01-12
    listed $169,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,257 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,156 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: +$900/yr (+$75/mo · 27.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$3,257
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$2,796
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$9,687
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,325
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+91.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $325,000 PWMLS
• 2015-03-13 Sold (MLS) $85,000 PMAR
• 2015-03-13 Sold (MLS) $85,000 PWMLS
• 2014-12-16 Listed $85,000 PMAR
• 2014-12-16 Listed $85,000 PWMLS
• 2011-07-12 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2011-01-12 Listed $169,600 MARMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,257 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.