5410 Ashworth Ct · Canyon Creek, TX 76048

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1997 6,229 sqft lot Est $179k · 41% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just 15 minutes from beautiful Granbury, TX & all of its shopping. You will find this home located in the private lake community of Canyon Creek, just seconds away from amazing Lake Granbury. Sitting on little less than an acre. Home offers 2 bedrooms & 2 baths. Large living space with working fireplace. Carpet throughout the home for the exception of the kitchen. The open concept living room & kitchen gives for a great entertaining space. Sale of home includes appliances microwave, refrigerator, washer, dryer & stove. Detached carport next to home, fenced in property with private driveway, at the end of the street. Additional lot for either a HUGE YARD or room to bu

Key facts

• 6,229 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1997

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $729 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 4.7% in Canyon Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,102 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.76%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,280
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5504 N Lakeside Hills Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-2%)	12mo	$175,000	$166	54
5504 Belaire Cir	0.20mi	2/2.0	924 (-14%)	22mo	$112,400	$122	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $26,096
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $69,374
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,770 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $774/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $729

Break-even live

Break-even rent $847

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $789	-5% $759	+0% $729	+5% $699	+10% $670
Rent	-10% $589	-5% $659	+0% $729	+5% $799	+10% $869
Rate	-1.0pp $782	-0.5pp $756	base $729	+0.5pp $702	+1.0pp $674

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5522 Firewood Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,400	$1.67	44d	1	0.37mi
5621 San Jacinto Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,100	$1.42	7d	1	0.57mi
5718 Barkridge Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,055	$1.42	4d	1	0.59mi
2414 Forest Hill Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,150	$1.44	4d	1	0.76mi
2700 Steepleridge Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,895	$1.32	7d	1	0.77mi
4710 Llano St Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	44d	1	0.82mi
3612 Mandy Dr Granbury, TX	2.0	1.0	784	$1,200	$1.53	22d	1	1.24mi
3752 Mambrino Hwy Granbury, TX	1.0	1.0	761	$1,025	$1.35	18d	1	1.25mi
3705 Mandy Dr #2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,400	$1.21	25d	1	1.30mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,300	$1.12	22d	1	1.32mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 1 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,300	$1.17	19d	1	1.32mi
4013 Mabery Ct Granbury, TX	1.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	44d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2022-09-20
   status Pending
2. 2022-09-11
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2022-08-04
   price $105,000
4. 2022-07-19
   listed $115,000 Active
5. 2022-07-15
   historical
6. 2022-07-14
   historical
7. 2022-06-20
   price $115,000
8. 2022-06-20
   price $115,000
9. 2022-06-02
   listed $120,000 Active
10. 2022-06-01
    price $120,000
11. 2022-05-15
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $774 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,148/yr (+$96/mo · 148.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$774
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $7,483
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,796
• After-tax cash flow: $6,954/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Creek

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1102
• US rank: #19485

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Creek, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2022-09-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-09-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-08-04 Price Changed $105,000 NTREIS
• 2022-07-19 Listed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2022-07-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-07-14 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-06-20 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-20 Price Changed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2022-06-02 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2022-06-01 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-15 Listed $130,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $774 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.