1500 Venus Dr · Vineland, NJ 08360

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,614 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1967 0.27 ac lot Est $326k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New roof, siding, & windows less than 3 years ago, New septic 5 years ago. Spacious split level just painted. 2 Car detatched garage has tall doors.

Key facts

• Utility room
• Rear yard
• Laundry area

Tags

• LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• REAR YARD
• FAMILY ROOM
• UTILITY ROOM
• LAUNDRY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.5% in Vineland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#363 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Vineland Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #418 of 472 in NJ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Vineland Senior High School (math 10% / reading 34%, grade F, #346 of 399 statewide, top 88%, 2,780 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $190k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.08%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $326,028
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1429 W Oak Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,447 (-10%)	5mo	$299,000	$207	69
1638 W Oak Rd	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,500 (-7%)	17mo	$315,000	$210	59
348 N Orchard Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-2%)	14mo	$301,000	$191	58
1349 Heights Pl	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,460 (-10%)	10mo	$289,900	$199	54
1530 N Orchard Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-7%)	9mo	$383,500	$256	54
1701 W Oak Rd	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,409 (-13%)	15mo	$283,250	$201	49
1063 W Park Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,552 (-4%)	21mo	$313,000	$202	43
2038 Almond Rd	0.67mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,674 (+4%)	18mo	$300,000	$179	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,697
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $16,821
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08360

• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,189 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,073/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,791

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $368	+0% $314	+5% $260	+10% $206
Rent	-10% $141	-5% $227	+0% $314	+5% $400	+10% $487
Rate	-1.0pp $410	-0.5pp $362	base $314	+0.5pp $265	+1.0pp $215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-02-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-17
   price $190,000
3. 2025-11-21
   listed $200,000 Active
4. 2011-09-29
   soldstatus $115,000
5. 2011-09-27
   soldstatus $110,000 153-char remark

   Show marketing remark (153 chars)

   New roof, siding, & windows less than 3 years ago, New septic 5 years ago. Spacious split level just painted. 2 Car detatched garage has tall doors.

6. 2011-09-27
   soldstatus $110,000 153-char remark

   Show marketing remark (153 chars)

   New roof, siding, & windows less than 3 years ago, New septic 5 years ago. Spacious split level just painted. 2 Car detatched garage has tall doors.

7. 2011-09-27
   soldstatus $115,000

   Show marketing remark (153 chars)

   New roof, siding, & windows less than 3 years ago, New septic 5 years ago. Spacious split level just painted. 2 Car detatched garage has tall doors.

8. 2011-09-27
   soldstatus $110,000

   Show marketing remark (153 chars)

   New roof, siding, & windows less than 3 years ago, New septic 5 years ago. Spacious split level just painted. 2 Car detatched garage has tall doors.

9. 2011-08-12
   historical 153-char remark

   Show marketing remark (153 chars)

   New roof, siding, & windows less than 3 years ago, New septic 5 years ago. Spacious split level just painted. 2 Car detatched garage has tall doors.

10. 2011-08-12
    historical

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    New roof, siding, & windows less than 3 years ago, New septic 5 years ago. Spacious split level just painted. 2 Car detatched garage has tall doors.

11. 2011-02-11
    listed $120,000 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    New roof, siding, & windows less than 3 years ago, New septic 5 years ago. Spacious split level just painted. 2 Car detatched garage has tall doors.

12. 2011-02-11
    listed $110,000 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    New roof, siding, & windows less than 3 years ago, New septic 5 years ago. Spacious split level just painted. 2 Car detatched garage has tall doors.

13. 2011-02-11
    historical 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    New roof, siding, & windows less than 3 years ago, New septic 5 years ago. Spacious split level just painted. 2 Car detatched garage has tall doors.

14. 2011-02-11
    listed $120,000

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    New roof, siding, & windows less than 3 years ago, New septic 5 years ago. Spacious split level just painted. 2 Car detatched garage has tall doors.

15. 2011-02-11
    listed

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    New roof, siding, & windows less than 3 years ago, New septic 5 years ago. Spacious split level just painted. 2 Car detatched garage has tall doors.

16. 2002-02-25
    soldstatus $95,000
17. 2002-02-22
    soldstatus $95,000
18. 2001-12-14
    historical
19. 2001-09-24
    listed $97,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,073 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,402 · $367/mo
• Expected delta: +$329/yr (+$27/mo · 8.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$4,073
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $867
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$208
• After-tax cash flow: $3,559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vineland Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416800
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $51,168
• Composite: 19.17/100
• National rank: #8819
• State rank: #418 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vineland

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #12180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vineland, NJ
• County: Cumberland County · 80,266 people
• City population: 45,038
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 45,038
• Household income: $65,359
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1328.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,743 people
• By 2030: 150,373 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 146,881 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 142,653 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 129,468 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 107,456 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 32% Two or more races 17% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 33% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Subsaharan African 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 37% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: D+6.0 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+23.1 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -320.06%
• Current HPI: 278.786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+95.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2011-09-27 Sold (MLS) $110,000 TREND
• 2011-09-27 Sold (MLS) $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-09-27 Sold (MLS) $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-09-27 Sold (MLS) $110,000 SJSRMLS
• 2011-08-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-08-12 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2011-02-11 Listed — TREND
• 2011-02-11 Listed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-02-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-02-11 Listed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-02-11 Listed $120,000 SJSRMLS
• 2002-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2002-02-22 Sold (MLS) $95,000 SJSRMLS
• 2001-12-14 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2001-09-24 Listed $97,000 SJSRMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,073 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.