Plan 1631 Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$216,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,631 sqft · SingleFamily · 695 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Key facts

• Smart thermostat
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 695 days

Tags

• SMART THERMOSTAT
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• ENERGY STAR CERTIFIED HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $216,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan, single story (Plan 1631)
• Construction: New construction (Plan); Model/plan name: Plan 1631
• Exterior features: Address: 518 Sabino Sky Ct, Magnolia, TX 77354

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Plan 1631); Living area approximately 1631

🏗️ New construction. The $216,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $265,853.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $217k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-258 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 695 days — a 12% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $190,955 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 695 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.16%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,853
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
232 Harlingen Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+0%)	0mo	$259,990	$159	86
833 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	2mo	$242,995	$149	80
810 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,609 (-1%)	1mo	$220,995	$137	79
692 Appaloosa Meadow Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	9mo	$252,799	$155	68
701 Appaloosa Meadow Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	10mo	$249,995	$153	66
30102 Dunlevy St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+10%)	6mo	$349,990	$194	58
627 Coyote Canyon Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,407 (-14%)	19mo	$269,000	$191	53
213 Harlingen Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,841 (+13%)	19mo	$299,990	$163	48
7890 Alset Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (-3%)	15mo	$296,900	$188	44
1313 Wicklow St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (+13%)	23mo	$309,990	$168	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $123,130
• Equity at exit: $239,501

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $366,058
• Equity at exit: $516,494

Cash invested: $74,439 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,394
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$332 /mo · $3,988/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,326

Max offer price $228,499

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,463
• Closing costs: $7,976
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
41523 Stampede Strem Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	24d	1	0.12mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $216,995 Active 695 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $216,995 Active 694 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $216,995 Active 693 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,892
• − Property taxes: −$3,988
• − Insurance: −$1,329
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − Depreciation: −$7,734
• Taxable loss: −$7,794
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,871
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B