11540 Valle Dorado Rd · Socorro, TX 79927

$259,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,460 sqft · Manufactured · 46 Days on market

Built 1998 0.47 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful mobile home situated on 1/2 acre of land. The front yard welcomes you with a grand entrance accessed through an automated gate. This home features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, along with an elegant foyer. The spacious main bedroom includes two large walk-in closets -- his and hers. Enjoy a large living room, formal dining area, cozy TV room, and a gourmet kitchen complete with an island, stainless steel appliances, and a mounted TV. Additional features include a game room and a dedicated laundry room, offering comfort, style, and plenty of space for the whole family. The backyard is a true oasis for relaxation and entertainment. It features two large gazebos and a fully equipped

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Automated gate
• Outdoor kitchen

Tags

• AUTOMATED GATE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSETS
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: No pool; Total building area about 2460
• Home design: Manufactured home
• Construction: Wood siding and stucco exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Gas grill; Back yard access; Covered patio/porch; Fenced yard (front and back)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Gas cooktop; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Refrigerated cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Multiple living areas; Cable TV; Ceiling fans; Formal dining and living rooms; Game/hobby room; Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Zoned master bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#830 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Campestre El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 495 students, 91% FRL); Socorro Middle (math 14% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 540 students, 92% FRL); Socorro H S (math 13% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,484 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 66% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,116/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 732% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,621 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.49%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.93% appreciation · 5.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,304
• Equity at exit: $63,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $51,526
• Equity at exit: $67,457

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79927

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $591/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $298	-5% $225	+0% $151	+5% $78	+10% $4
Rent	-10% $-16	-5% $68	+0% $151	+5% $235	+10% $318
Rate	-1.0pp $282	-0.5pp $217	base $151	+0.5pp $84	+1.0pp $15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11365 Hidalgo Dr El Paso, TX	5.0	3.0	2485	$1,985	$0.80	45d	1	1.12mi
420 Villa Socorro Pl El Paso, TX	5.0	3.5	2730	$2,300	$0.84	4d	1	1.21mi
228 Flor Azucena Dr Socorro, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,695	$0.96	4d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,900 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $259,900 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $279,900 Active 886-char remark
17. 2023-07-31
    historical
18. 2023-06-14
    listed $279,950 Active
19. 2018-12-07
    historical
20. 2008-12-04
    listed $77,900
21. 1993-03-24
    soldstatus
22. 1987-10-25
    soldstatus
23. 1987-10-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $591 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,756 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,165/yr (+$347/mo · 704.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$591
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,032
• − Management: −$2,032
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$2,679
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$643
• After-tax cash flow: $2,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Socorro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,318
• Composite: 25.67/100
• National rank: #7396
• State rank: #624 of 826 in TX

Livability — Socorro

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #830
• US rank: #14960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Socorro, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 44,444
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,444
• Household income: $53,652
• Rent vs Own: 19.2% rent · 80.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 39% Native American 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.93%
• Current HPI: 239.646
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.29%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+233.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $259,900 GEPARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $279,900 GEPARMLS
• 2023-07-31 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2023-06-14 Listed $279,950 GEPARMLS
• 2018-12-07 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2008-12-04 Listed $77,900 GEPARMLS
• 1993-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $591 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.