1245 Sir Kay Dr · Chesapeake, VA 23323

$325,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,295 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1972 10,454 sqft lot Est $390k · 17% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 4 bed 2 bath lake-front ranch tucked in the back of the Camelot neighborhood of Chesapeake. Step inside and you will be welcomed with natural light, and fresh paint throughout the home. The open floorplan is great for entertaining as well as family time and the kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and subway tile backsplash. The home features a first floor primary bedroom with en-suite looking out to the serene backyard, along with three additional bedrooms. The large fenced in back yard is your private waterfront oasis and a great place to spend time with family and friends, or just to quietly sip your morning coffee. Call today to

Key facts

• Lake-front
• Fenced in back yard
• Granite countertops

Tags

• LAKE-FRONT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• FIRST FLOOR PRIMARY BEDROOM
• FENCED IN BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No applicable HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Multiple car parking; Off-street parking; Driveway parking
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power available
• Home design: Detached ranch; Single-story (1 living level)
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Brick and vinyl siding; Back fenced yard; Storage shed; On waterfront (lake)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator; Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with ensuite; First-floor master bedroom; Bedroom and full bathroom on first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced hot air heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Bar; Scuttle access
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-796/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Chesapeake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#236 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Chesapeake City Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Camelot Elementary (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 498 students, 96% FRL); Hugo A. Owens Middle (math 57% / reading 76%, grade A-, #107 of 342 statewide, top 33%, 1,315 students, 30% FRL); Deep Creek High (math 70% / reading 82%, grade A-, #102 of 319 statewide, top 32%, 1,597 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 28% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 184 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 597 units permitted in Chesapeake city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesapeake County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,198 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $389,860
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1245 Sir Kay Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,295 (0%)	1mo	$360,000	$278	99
303 Bunche Blvd	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,300 (+0%)	0mo	$271,500	$209	74
3108 Aaron Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+8%)	4mo	$341,000	$243	73
3132 Kenelm Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,400 (+8%)	1mo	$325,000	$232	69
1003 Warfield Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,305 (+1%)	4mo	$175,069	$134	64
911 Taft Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,475 (+14%)	2mo	$297,000	$201	60
909 Ellington Sq	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,275 (-2%)	3mo	$247,900	$194	58
1013 Warfield Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,415 (+9%)	4mo	$315,000	$223	57
1517 Ekstine Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,426 (+10%)	4mo	$306,000	$215	56
405 Truman Cir	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-7%)	2mo	$269,000	$224	49
314 Avondale Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-15%)	0mo	$266,000	$242	42
1122 Carrington Cres S	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,425 (+10%)	5mo	$137,750	$97	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-48,626
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-11,601
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23323

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,562 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,007/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,646

Max offer price $313,279

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $26	+0% $-66	+5% $-158	+10% $-250
Rent	-10% $-269	-5% $-168	+0% $-66	+5% $35	+10% $136
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $16	base $-66	+0.5pp $-151	+1.0pp $-236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
705 Warfield Dr Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.5	1269	$2,100	$1.65	19d	1	0.38mi
902 Liston Ln Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.0	1039	$1,785	$1.72	25d	1	0.39mi
846 Drawbridge Dr Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,600	$1.86	25d	1	0.51mi
3208 Sir Meliot Dr Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,295	$1.64	25d	1	0.62mi
1114 Woodland Terrace Dr Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.0	1223	$2,000	$1.64	25d	1	0.99mi
2604 Townhouse Ln Chesapeake, VA	1.0–3.0	1.5	1050	$1,885	$1.80	3d	1	1.09mi
1217 Lakeview Dr Portsmouth, VA	4.0	2.0	1425	$2,550	$1.79	9d	1	1.15mi
2509 Smithfield Rd Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,345	$1.52	23d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-22
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-16
   listed $325,000 Active
4. 2023-02-02
   soldstatus $305,000
5. 2023-01-02
   status Under Contract
6. 2022-12-16
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2022-12-04
   status Active
8. 2022-11-30
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2022-11-22
   listed $310,000 Active
10. 2022-11-22
    historical
11. 2022-10-21
    price $310,000
12. 2022-10-01
    status Active
13. 2022-09-26
    historical Active Under Contract
14. 2022-09-21
    listed $314,900 Active
15. 2019-07-12
    soldstatus $230,000
16. 2019-06-03
    status Under Contract
17. 2019-05-15
    listed $229,900 Active
18. 2019-02-26
    status Under Contract
19. 2019-01-30
    listed $132,900 Active
20. 2018-05-24
    status Under Contract
21. 2018-05-22
    historical
22. 2018-05-14
    price $115,000
23. 2018-03-23
    listed $156,500 Active
24. 1987-08-03
    soldstatus $65,000
25. 1983-09-01
    soldstatus $44,800
26. 1975-04-16
    soldstatus $32,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,007 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,007 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$3,007
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,460
• − Management: −$2,460
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$6,467
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $756/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesapeake City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100810
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $69,356
• Composite: 57.84/100
• National rank: #1047
• State rank: #31 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chesapeake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #7942

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chesapeake, VA
• County: Chesapeake City · 253,091 people
• City population: 253,091
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 43,043
• Household income: $108,730
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 699.0

Population outlook (Chesapeake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 263,804 people
• By 2030: 276,798 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 299,906 · +13.7%
• By 2050: 318,284 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 362,137 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 372,225 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 27% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesapeake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.3% · R 47.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: 1.3pp · 2024: 3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.8 2020: D+6.5 2016: R+1.3 2012: D+1.1 2008: D+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.09%
• Current HPI: 309.6925
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+903.1% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-04-22 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $325,000 REINMLS
• 2023-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-02 Pending — REINMLS
• 2022-12-16 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2022-12-04 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2022-11-30 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2022-11-22 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2022-11-22 Listed $310,000 REINMLS
• 2022-10-21 Price Changed $310,000 REINMLS
• 2022-10-01 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2022-09-26 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2022-09-21 Listed $314,900 REINMLS
• 2019-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-03 Pending — REINMLS
• 2019-05-15 Listed $229,900 REINMLS
• 2019-02-26 Pending — REINMLS
• 2019-01-30 Listed $132,900 REINMLS
• 2018-05-24 Pending — REINMLS
• 2018-05-22 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2018-05-14 Price Changed $115,000 REINMLS
• 2018-03-23 Listed $156,500 REINMLS
• 1987-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1983-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,800 Public Records
• 1975-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $32,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,007 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.