Plan Preston Plan · Manvel, TX 77578

$380,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,939 sqft · SingleFamily · 146 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Meridiana! You'll find an oasis retreat meets a new home community, just minutes south of Pearland. Meridiana is a short drive to the world-famous Houston Medical Center and offers easy access to several large business centers, including Dow Chemical and BASF. With a state-of-the-art elementary school, a junior high and high school on the way, and learning labs nestled in the community, students will find innovative ways to learn.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 145 days

🏗️ New construction. The $380,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $434,533.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $381k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-734 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.2% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1243 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,158 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.24%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $434,533
• List price: $380,990
• Delta: -12.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5306 Majestic Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (+2%)	2mo	$449,900	$227	88
10014 Agave Point Ct	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,910 (-2%)	2mo	$340,000	$178	69
10010 Napier Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,941 (+0%)	1mo	$322,999	$166	69
5247 Palo Verde Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,046 (+6%)	2mo	$345,990	$169	69
10110 Palm Springs Pl	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,901 (-2%)	1mo	$339,000	$178	68
10003 Agave Point Ct	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,838 (-5%)	1mo	$320,000	$174	64
5030 Morrison Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,085 (+8%)	2mo	$389,990	$187	63
5619 Bobwhite Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,099 (+8%)	2mo	$474,900	$226	62
5114 Getty Ln	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,917 (-1%)	1mo	$373,214	$195	60
5115 Getty Ln	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,080 (+7%)	1mo	$375,000	$180	56
5243 Palo Verde Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,714 (-12%)	1mo	$319,990	$187	54
5219 Getty Ln	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,129 (+10%)	1mo	$379,000	$178	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-117,808
• Equity at exit: $64,790

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-165,347
• Equity at exit: $37,570

Cash invested: $121,669 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77578

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1243
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,872 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,279
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$543 /mo · $6,518/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $-734

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,801

Max offer price $328,262

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,633
• Closing costs: $13,036
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5714 Caracara St Arcola, TX	3.0	2.0	2518	$2,750	$1.09	2d	1	0.32mi
9623 Wright Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2548	$3,600	$1.41	24d	1	0.44mi
4143 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	43d	1	1.43mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $380,990 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $380,990 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $380,990 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $380,990 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $380,990 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $380,990 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,990 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,990 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,990 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $375,990 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,990 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,990 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,990 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,990 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $375,990 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Welcome to Meridiana! You'll find an oasis retreat meets a new home community, just minutes south of Pearland. Meridiana is a short drive to the world-famous Houston Medical Center and offers easy access to several large business centers, including Dow Chemical and BASF. With a state-of-the-art elementary school, a junior high and high school on the way, and learning labs nestled in the community, students will find innovative ways to learn.

16. 2026-05-06
    status Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Welcome to Meridiana! You'll find an oasis retreat meets a new home community, just minutes south of Pearland. Meridiana is a short drive to the world-famous Houston Medical Center and offers easy access to several large business centers, including Dow Chemical and BASF. With a state-of-the-art elementary school, a junior high and high school on the way, and learning labs nestled in the community, students will find innovative ways to learn.

17. 2026-05-02
    historical 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Welcome to Meridiana! You'll find an oasis retreat meets a new home community, just minutes south of Pearland. Meridiana is a short drive to the world-famous Houston Medical Center and offers easy access to several large business centers, including Dow Chemical and BASF. With a state-of-the-art elementary school, a junior high and high school on the way, and learning labs nestled in the community, students will find innovative ways to learn.

18. 2026-04-11
    price $372,990 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Welcome to Meridiana! You'll find an oasis retreat meets a new home community, just minutes south of Pearland. Meridiana is a short drive to the world-famous Houston Medical Center and offers easy access to several large business centers, including Dow Chemical and BASF. With a state-of-the-art elementary school, a junior high and high school on the way, and learning labs nestled in the community, students will find innovative ways to learn.

19. 2026-03-22
    price $367,990 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Welcome to Meridiana! You'll find an oasis retreat meets a new home community, just minutes south of Pearland. Meridiana is a short drive to the world-famous Houston Medical Center and offers easy access to several large business centers, including Dow Chemical and BASF. With a state-of-the-art elementary school, a junior high and high school on the way, and learning labs nestled in the community, students will find innovative ways to learn.

20. 2026-02-07
    price $362,990 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Welcome to Meridiana! You'll find an oasis retreat meets a new home community, just minutes south of Pearland. Meridiana is a short drive to the world-famous Houston Medical Center and offers easy access to several large business centers, including Dow Chemical and BASF. With a state-of-the-art elementary school, a junior high and high school on the way, and learning labs nestled in the community, students will find innovative ways to learn.

21. 2026-01-20
    listed $359,990 Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Welcome to Meridiana! You'll find an oasis retreat meets a new home community, just minutes south of Pearland. Meridiana is a short drive to the world-famous Houston Medical Center and offers easy access to several large business centers, including Dow Chemical and BASF. With a state-of-the-art elementary school, a junior high and high school on the way, and learning labs nestled in the community, students will find innovative ways to learn.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,459
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,341
• − Property taxes: −$6,518
• − Insurance: −$2,173
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,757
• − Management: −$2,757
• − Depreciation: −$12,641
• Taxable loss: −$16,727
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,014
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manvel, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,210
• Household income: $134,016
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 93.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Norwegian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.15%
• Current HPI: 218.4264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $375,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $372,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $367,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $362,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-20 Listed $359,990 Zillow