3840 Staysail Ln #3840 · Holiday, FL 34691

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · Condo · 28 Days on market

Built 1981 Good condition $521/mo HOA · 32% of rent ↓ 29% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WATERFRONT LIVING IN A BEAUTIFUL 55+ COMMUNITY! Welcome to easy Florida living in this spacious and well-maintained second-floor condo offering peaceful water views, natural light, and nearly 1,115 sq ft of comfortable living space. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath residence combines comfort, privacy, and convenience in one of Holiday’s desirable 55+ communities. Being on the second floor comes with some wonderful advantages — enjoy elevated lake views, added privacy, more natural light, and peace of mind with no foot traffic directly outside your windows or patio. One of the standout features is the oversized Florida room offering over 150 sq ft of additional living space — large

Key facts

• Peaceful water views
• In-unit laundry
• Waterfront living

Tags

• WATERFRONT LIVING
• PEACEFUL WATER VIEWS
• ELEVATED LAKE VIEWS
• OVERSIZED FLORIDA ROOM
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• PRIVATE STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: US Alt 19 to Holiday Lake Drive, Right on Staysail. Condo on your left.
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $521; total annual fees $6,252; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly condo fee $521); Association requires approval; Association fee includes cable TV, internet, pool, sewer, water, maintenance of structure and grounds, private road, recreational facilities and escrow reserves; Community amenities include clubhouse, playground, pool, sidewalks and street lights; Deed restrictions and special community restrictions apply; No truck/RV/motorcycle parking; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs, max ~20 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking; Reserved parking; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected; Electricity connected; Cable available; High-speed internet / broadband available
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; One story; Faces north; Completed condition
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building number 5
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Rain gutters; Storage; Pond view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one level)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room / dining room combo; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer and dryer listed as appliances; Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($286/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.

Recommended offer $108,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.93%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-17,524
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-18,197
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34691

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$521
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,622

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3838 Staysail Ln Unit 3838 Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1114	$1,500	$1.35	24d	1	0.04mi
3623 Holiday Lake Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1004	$1,525	$1.52	24d	1	0.28mi
3530 Oxford Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,495	$1.38	21d	1	0.33mi
3531 Rosewater Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	907	$1,795	$1.98	24d	1	0.34mi
477 Sevilla Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1141	$2,150	$1.88	1d	1	0.45mi
1132 Maybury Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1173	$1,838	$1.57	1d	1	0.51mi
1051 Maybury Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1021	$1,695	$1.66	21d	1	0.53mi
3433 Atlantis Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	24d	1	0.57mi
1624 Springdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,575	$1.57	5d	1	0.66mi
1024 Solar Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	24d	1	0.67mi
3104 Primrose Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$1,640	$1.34	24d	1	0.79mi
3054 Primrose Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,500	$1.54	5d	1	0.80mi
1024 Hilton Ln Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,549	$1.17	24d	1	0.80mi
1351 Whitehall Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1078	$1,550	$1.44	24d	1	0.82mi
1018 Dartmouth Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1019	$1,495	$1.47	24d	1	0.85mi
1440 Brixton Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	952	$1,707	$1.79	24d	1	0.87mi
3143 Pinon Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1034	$1,695	$1.64	21d	1	0.93mi
1050 Clairborne St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1176	$1,825	$1.55	24d	1	0.94mi
1050 Clairborne St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,825	$1.55	5d	1	0.94mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	14d	1	0.98mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	24d	1	0.98mi
4836 Flora Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,445	$1.30	24d	1	0.99mi
1301 Mandarin Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	872	$1,699	$1.95	24d	1	1.00mi
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	24d	1	1.01mi
3405 Wilson Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	861	$1,650	$1.92	24d	1	1.03mi
1552 Alert St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	956	$2,100	$2.20	5d	1	1.05mi
1254 Firecreek Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	1d	1	1.09mi
3521 Allandale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	1.10mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	20d	1	1.12mi
3711 Redwood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,850	$1.35	14d	1	1.16mi
360 Jeru Blvd Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1439	$1,899	$1.32	14d	1	1.17mi
3749 Beechwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,673	$1.65	12d	1	1.19mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	24d	1	1.19mi
1301 Greenlea Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	872	$1,700	$1.95	24d	1	1.22mi
2117 Calusa Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1205	$1,600	$1.33	5d	1	1.24mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,200	$1.69	5d	1	1.24mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	24d	1	1.26mi
3446 Cincinnati Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,906	$1.57	5d	1	1.26mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	24d	1	1.27mi
3513 Trask Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,249	$1.25	24d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $521 · $6,252/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $110,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    listed $110,000 Active
15. 2025-10-31
    historical
16. 2025-10-08
    price $114,999
17. 2025-07-21
    price $124,900
18. 2025-05-12
    status Active
19. 2025-05-01
    historical
20. 2025-02-20
    price $129,900
21. 2025-02-03
    price $139,900
22. 2025-01-18
    price $144,900
23. 2025-01-03
    price $149,900
24. 2024-11-04
    listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − HOA: −$6,252
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$1,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$279
• After-tax cash flow: $565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained second-floor condo in a 55+ community offers spacious living and water views. Minor updates to the kitchen and bathroom would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated and could be replaced
• Minor bathroom cabinets — dated and could be replaced
• Minor kitchen appliances — dated and could be replaced

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to buyers and renters
• Both update bathroom cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would appeal to buyers and renters
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom cabinets · dated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen appliances · dated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both update bathroom cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,232
• Household income: $50,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.84%
• Current HPI: 326.9843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-29.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $114,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-18 Price Changed $144,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-04 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid