Stafford Plan · Allenhurst, GA 31301

$263,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · SingleFamily · 441 Days on market

Excellent condition $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Stafford floor plan is loaded with curb appeal and always catches the eye. Ideal for any sized family, this flexible plan can have either 3 or 4 bedrooms. The open concept living area features clear sight lines from both the kitchen and breakfast area, plus an additional dining room that could be converted into the fourth bedroom. The master suite has a huge walk-in closet, plus a private bath with dual vanity, garden tub and separate shower. Artistic renderings are for informational purposes only. Actual floor plans, features and inclusions may vary.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 440 days

🏗️ New construction. The $263,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,840.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#319 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $424 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 441 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,654 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 441 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.64%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,840
• List price: $263,900
• Delta: -3.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
663 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,565 (0%)	2mo	$276,975	$177	74
1118 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,565 (0%)	8mo	$275,650	$176	69
722 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	4/2.5	1,609 (+3%)	2mo	$279,800	$174	67
1007 Buckhead Loop SE	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,565 (0%)	8mo	$289,210	$185	65
964 Buckhead Loop SE	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,565 (0%)	9mo	$268,875	$172	62
3573 SE Arnall Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (+2%)	3mo	$246,900	$155	61
977 Buckhead Loop SE	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,620 (+4%)	8mo	$277,750	$171	58
709 Buckhead Loop SE	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	1mo	$282,125	$204	50
1948 SE Arnold Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	2mo	$276,000	$200	48
1000 Buckhead Loop SE	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	9mo	$261,325	$189	38
265 Antler Ave SE	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	8mo	$259,945	$188	38
284 Antler Ave SE	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	8mo	$274,765	$199	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-20,684
• Equity at exit: $81,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,272
• Equity at exit: $99,501

Cash invested: $76,395 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 34 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.8 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $276,488 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31301

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,431
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,093/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,430

Max offer price $239,317

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-43	-5% $-137	+0% $-232	+5% $-326	+10% $-420
Rent	-10% $-400	-5% $-316	+0% $-232	+5% $-147	+10% $-63
Rate	-1.0pp $-94	-0.5pp $-162	base $-232	+0.5pp $-302	+1.0pp $-374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,210
• Closing costs: $8,185
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $263,900 Active 441 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $263,900 Active 440 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $263,900 Active 439 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $263,900 Active 438 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $263,900 Active 437 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $263,900 Active 436 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $263,900 Active 433 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $263,900 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $263,900 Active 431 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $263,900 Active 429 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $263,900 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $263,900 Active 426 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $263,900 Active 425 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $263,900 Active 424 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $263,900 Active 423 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $263,900 Active 420 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $263,900 Active 418 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $263,900 Active 417 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $263,900 Active 416 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $263,900 Active 415 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $263,900 Active 414 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $263,900 Active 413 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $263,900 Active 412 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $263,900 Active 411 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $263,900 Active 410 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $263,900 Active 409 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $263,900 Active 408 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $263,900 Active 407 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $263,900 Active 406 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $263,900 Active 405 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $263,900 Active 404 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $263,900 Active 403 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $263,900 Active 402 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $263,900 Active 401 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $263,900 Active 400 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $263,900 Active 399 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $263,900 Active 398 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $263,900 Active 397 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $263,900 Active 394 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $263,900 Active 393 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $263,900 Active 391 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $263,900 Active 390 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $263,900 Active 389 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $263,900 Active 388 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $263,900 Active 387 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $263,900 Active 385 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $263,900 Active 384 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $263,900 Active 382 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $263,900 Active 381 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $263,900 Active 380 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,283
• − Property taxes: −$4,093
• − Insurance: −$1,364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,051
• − Management: −$2,051
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$7,937
• Taxable loss: −$7,549
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,812
• After-tax cash flow: $-968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Stafford floor plan is move-in ready with excellent curb appeal and a well-maintained interior. Minor updates to paint and landscaping would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Modern backsplash adds visual interest and value ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Updated fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mcclelland Elementary School F GA #728/1,228 Nat'l #29,575/41,679 Middle Long County Middle School F GA #311/470 Nat'l #10,795/14,009 High Long County High School F GA #140/424 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Allenhurst

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #17124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 24,669 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,933
• Household income: $65,417
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 31% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 187.7716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-24 Listed $263,900 Zillow