154 Vanguard Cir · Cocoa, FL 32926

$204,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,707 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1991 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BACK ON MARKET - BUYER FINANCING FELL THROUGH. .. .Unique opportunity in Cocoa! This impeccable 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home has been remodeled to offer 1,707 sqft of modern and functional space, making it one of the most spacious and efficient properties in the area. The biggest highlight is the 2020 solar panel system--fully paid off--allowing you to live virtually without electricity bills. Additionally, the 2018 roof provides peace of mind and easy insurability in Florida. Situated on a generous 0.30-acre lot in Canaveral Groves, you'll enjoy total freedom with no HOA restrictions; the perfect place to park your boat, RV, or pets. With quick access to I-95, beaches, and the Space Center, this home combines comfort, massive savings, and a strategic location. Come see it and discover what it's like to live with the lowest cost of living on the market!

Key facts

• 0.30-acre lot
• 2020 roof
• Access to beaches

Tags

• SOLAR PANEL SYSTEM
• 2020 ROOF
• 0.30-ACRE LOT
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS
• QUICK ACCESS TO I-95
• ACCESS TO BEACHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned TR-1
• HOA & community: No homeowners association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water service connected; Solar energy present
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; West-facing
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Approximately 0.3 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#344 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $205k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.67%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $11,774
• Equity at exit: $30,551

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $87,615
• Equity at exit: $17,716

Cash invested: $57,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32926

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,398 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,540/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,631

Max offer price $204,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,225
• Closing costs: $6,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3028 Winchester Dr Cocoa, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,915	$1.70	21d	1	1.05mi
3070 Cirrus Dr Cocoa, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,661	$2.66	13d	29	1.12mi
2811 N Indian River Dr Cocoa, FL	3.0	1.5	1800	$2,600	$1.44	23d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-14
   status $204,900 Pending 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $204,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $204,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $204,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $204,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $204,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $204,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $204,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $204,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-05-31
    listed $204,900 Active 58 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,540 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,701 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$160/yr (+$13/mo · 10.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,478
• − Property taxes: −$1,540
• − Insurance: −$1,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,302
• − Management: −$2,302
• − Depreciation: −$5,961
• Taxable income: $4,164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$999
• After-tax cash flow: $6,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cocoa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #344
• US rank: #5979

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 67,424
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,505
• Household income: $70,735
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 782.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.32%
• Current HPI: 335.1251
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1070.9% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Relisted — SCMLS
• 2026-05-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $204,900 SCMLS
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $204,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — SCMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $205,000 SCMLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Pending — SCMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $203,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $203,000 SCMLS
• 2024-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-30 Sold (MLS) $120,000 SCMLS
• 2020-09-11 Contingent — SCMLS
• 2020-09-03 Relisted — SCMLS
• 2020-07-14 Contingent — SCMLS
• 2020-06-03 Relisted — SCMLS
• 2020-05-30 Contingent — SCMLS
• 2020-05-23 Listed $129,000 SCMLS
• 2020-03-30 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2020-03-11 Relisted — SCMLS
• 2020-02-27 Contingent — SCMLS
• 2019-11-21 Listed $129,000 SCMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2015-05-20 Sold (MLS) $39,900 SCMLS
• 2015-05-01 Listed $39,900 SCMLS
• 2007-12-02 Listed $97,400 SCMLS
• 2001-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $66,900 Public Records
• 1990-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,540 · -40.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.