The Cardinal Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$251,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily · 1096 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The cozy Cardinal plan features three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a pocket office at the front of the home that can be converted into a powder bathroom or enlarged pantry space. The primary suite is tucked away at the back of the home for extra privacy leaving lots of room for the open concept kitchen/dining and family room areas. Customize the Cardinal plan further with a spacious covered back patio perfect for outdoor get-togethers with family and friends.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 1095 days

🏗️ New construction. The $251,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $281,052.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $252k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-351 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2366 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 50d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1096 days — a 12% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $201,461 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1096 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.35%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,052
• List price: $251,990
• Delta: -10.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10033 Swift Fox Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,693 (+4%)	7mo	$274,900	$162	80
10010 Cottontail Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-5%)	10mo	$239,990	$156	78
27262 Grey Fox Run	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,749 (+8%)	2mo	$250,000	$143	76
27106 Apache Trl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-1%)	1mo	$415,000	$259	73
27219 Mockingbird Terrace Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+1%)	10mo	$279,725	$171	72
10288 Badger Run Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,597 (-2%)	10mo	$256,724	$161	67
10260 Badger Run Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (+4%)	8mo	$281,125	$166	61
10139 Red Snapper Rd	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,766 (+9%)	4mo	$274,999	$156	59
27278 Axis Deer Trl	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+15%)	9mo	$299,635	$161	58
27314 Axis Deer Trl	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+15%)	11mo	$297,525	$159	53
10272 Badger Run Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-12%)	7mo	$280,260	$196	53
9948 Glenbrook Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-10%)	4mo	$239,900	$164	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $125,469
• Equity at exit: $253,194

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $377,509
• Equity at exit: $546,022

Cash invested: $78,695 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 28 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 28.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $277,450 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 67 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 2366
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,474
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$351 /mo · $4,216/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,459

Max offer price $230,299

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-157	-5% $-254	+0% $-351	+5% $-448	+10% $-545
Rent	-10% $-510	-5% $-430	+0% $-351	+5% $-271	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-209	-0.5pp $-279	base $-351	+0.5pp $-424	+1.0pp $-498

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,263
• Closing costs: $8,432
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27106 Grey Fox Run Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1759	$2,050	$1.17	63d	1	0.15mi
9800 Grosbeak Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,695	$1.30	33d	1	0.63mi
9733 Grosbeak Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,798	$1.38	2d	1	0.67mi
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	143d	1	0.70mi
9838 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,719	$1.09	49d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $251,990 Active 1096 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $251,990 Active 1095 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $251,990 Active 1094 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $251,990 Active 1093 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $251,990 Active 1092 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $251,990 Active 1090 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $251,990 Active 1089 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $251,990 Active 1088 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $251,990 Active 1087 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $251,990 Active 1086 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $251,990 Active 1085 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $251,990 Active 1084 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $251,990 Active 1083 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $251,990 Active 1082 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $251,990 Active 1081 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $251,990 Active 1080 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $251,990 Active 1079 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $251,990 Active 1078 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $251,990 Active 1077 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $251,990 Active 1076 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $251,990 Active 1075 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $251,990 Active 1074 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $251,990 Active 1073 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $251,990 Active 1072 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $251,990 Active 1071 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $251,990 Active 1070 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $251,990 Active 1069 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $251,990 Active 1068 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $251,990 Active 1067 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $251,990 Active 1066 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $251,990 Active 1065 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $251,990 Active 1064 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $251,990 Active 1063 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $251,990 Active 1062 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $251,990 Active 1061 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $251,990 Active 1060 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $251,990 Active 1059 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $251,990 Active 1058 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $251,990 Active 1057 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $251,990 Active 1056 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $251,990 Active 1055 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $251,990 Active 1054 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $251,990 Active 1053 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $251,990 Active 1052 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $251,990 Active 1051 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $251,990 Active 1050 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $251,990 Active 1049 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $251,990 Active 1048 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $251,990 Active 1047 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $251,990 Active 1046 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,743
• − Property taxes: −$4,216
• − Insurance: −$1,405
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − Depreciation: −$8,176
• Taxable loss: −$9,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,216
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Magnolia, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance curb appeal and modernize the home.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace landscaping with drought-tolerant plants — Drought-tolerant plants reduce maintenance and improve curb appeal. ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities for potential buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cedric C Smith D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Bear Branch J H D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2024-04-27 Price Changed $251,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-01 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-01 Price Changed $242,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-20 Price Changed $239,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $259,990 Zillow