5016 Hess Rd · Buena Vista, MI 48601

$109,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,914 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1900 0.61 ac lot $57/sqft · 7% below area Est $118k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOOKING FOR A LARGE HOME IN BUENA VISTA AT A REASONABLE PRICE? HERE IT IS! 5016 HESS RD. , BRIDGEPORT SCHOOLS. 1900 SQ FT HOME WITH AN OPEN CONCEPT. THREE UPPER BEDROOMS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4TH BEDROOM OR COULD BE USED AS AN OFFICE ON THE MAIN FLOOR. FAMILY ROOM WITH WOOD FIREPLACE. DETACHED GARAGE WITH A COVERED PATIO FROM ENTRY WAY TO THE HOUSE. MASSIVE YARD, 140 FRONTAGE BY 190 DEPTH. CALL TODAY TO SCHEDULE YOUR APPOINTMENT.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Massive yard
• Wood fireplace

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• WOOD FIREPLACE
• DETACHED GARAGE
• COVERED PATIO
• MASSIVE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Patio; Fenced yard; Barn and additional garage structure on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Fireplace in the family room; 8 total rooms; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $495 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #513 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $110k implies a 779% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.31%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,180
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: -7.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5051 Peterson St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,976 (+3%)	21mo	$130,000	$66	64
3306 Burlington Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,861 (-3%)	3mo	$169,000	$91	58
1337 Woodside St	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,191 (+14%)	6mo	$197,000	$90	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $13,697
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $52,406
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $591/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $850

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   LOOKING FOR A LARGE HOME IN BUENA VISTA AT A REASONABLE PRICE? HERE IT IS! 5016 HESS RD. , BRIDGEPORT SCHOOLS. 1900 SQ FT HOME WITH AN OPEN CONCEPT. THREE UPPER BEDROOMS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4TH BEDROOM OR COULD BE USED AS AN OFFICE ON THE MAIN FLOOR. FAMILY ROOM WITH WOOD FIREPLACE. DETACHED GARAGE WITH A COVERED PATIO FROM ENTRY WAY TO THE HOUSE. MASSIVE YARD, 140 FRONTAGE BY 190 DEPTH. CALL TODAY TO SCHEDULE YOUR APPOINTMENT.

2. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   LOOKING FOR A LARGE HOME IN BUENA VISTA AT A REASONABLE PRICE? HERE IT IS! 5016 HESS RD. , BRIDGEPORT SCHOOLS. 1900 SQ FT HOME WITH AN OPEN CONCEPT. THREE UPPER BEDROOMS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4TH BEDROOM OR COULD BE USED AS AN OFFICE ON THE MAIN FLOOR. FAMILY ROOM WITH WOOD FIREPLACE. DETACHED GARAGE WITH A COVERED PATIO FROM ENTRY WAY TO THE HOUSE. MASSIVE YARD, 140 FRONTAGE BY 190 DEPTH. CALL TODAY TO SCHEDULE YOUR APPOINTMENT.

3. 2026-05-05
   listed $109,900 Active 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   LOOKING FOR A LARGE HOME IN BUENA VISTA AT A REASONABLE PRICE? HERE IT IS! 5016 HESS RD. , BRIDGEPORT SCHOOLS. 1900 SQ FT HOME WITH AN OPEN CONCEPT. THREE UPPER BEDROOMS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4TH BEDROOM OR COULD BE USED AS AN OFFICE ON THE MAIN FLOOR. FAMILY ROOM WITH WOOD FIREPLACE. DETACHED GARAGE WITH A COVERED PATIO FROM ENTRY WAY TO THE HOUSE. MASSIVE YARD, 140 FRONTAGE BY 190 DEPTH. CALL TODAY TO SCHEDULE YOUR APPOINTMENT.

4. 2026-05-05
   listed $109,900 Active 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   LOOKING FOR A LARGE HOME IN BUENA VISTA AT A REASONABLE PRICE? HERE IT IS! 5016 HESS RD. , BRIDGEPORT SCHOOLS. 1900 SQ FT HOME WITH AN OPEN CONCEPT. THREE UPPER BEDROOMS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4TH BEDROOM OR COULD BE USED AS AN OFFICE ON THE MAIN FLOOR. FAMILY ROOM WITH WOOD FIREPLACE. DETACHED GARAGE WITH A COVERED PATIO FROM ENTRY WAY TO THE HOUSE. MASSIVE YARD, 140 FRONTAGE BY 190 DEPTH. CALL TODAY TO SCHEDULE YOUR APPOINTMENT.

5. 2008-05-16
   soldstatus $12,500
6. 2008-05-16
   soldstatus $12,500
7. 2008-05-16
   soldstatus $12,500
8. 2008-04-08
   historical
9. 2008-02-05
   listed $13,500
10. 2008-02-05
    listed $13,500
11. 2008-02-05
    listed $13,500
12. 2007-11-01
    historical
13. 2007-06-26
    listed $90,900
14. 2007-05-15
    soldstatus $59,432
15. 2006-12-11
    soldstatus $59,432
16. 2006-09-28
    historical
17. 2006-08-21
    listed $94,900
18. 2005-12-02
    soldstatus $11,529
19. 2005-08-18
    historical
20. 2005-01-21
    listed $34,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $591 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,142 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$551/yr (+$46/mo · 93.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$591
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,418
• − Management: −$1,418
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $4,391
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,054
• After-tax cash flow: $4,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2606780
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,403
• Composite: 10.13/100
• National rank: #9800
• State rank: #513 of 540 in MI

Livability — Buena Vista

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #20603

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buena Vista, MI
• City population: 32,069
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+221.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-05-16 Sold (MLS) $12,500 REALCOMP
• 2008-05-16 Sold (MLS) $12,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-05-16 Sold (MLS) $12,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-04-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-02-05 Listed $13,500 REALCOMP
• 2008-02-05 Listed $13,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-02-05 Listed $13,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-11-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-06-26 Listed $90,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $59,432 Public Records
• 2006-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $59,432 Public Records
• 2006-09-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-08-21 Listed $94,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-12-02 Sold (MLS) $11,529 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-08-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-01-21 Listed $34,200 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $591 · -65.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.