1516 S Jefferson St · Midland, TX 79701

$279,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,506 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1959 8,407 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully renovated and move-in ready! This spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bath home offers the perfect blend of modern updates and everyday comfort. The open-concept layout features updated flooring, fresh paint, abundant natural light, and a beautifully refreshed kitchen with white cabinetry, sleek countertops, stainless appliances, and contemporary finishes. The updated bathrooms add a clean, modern touch, while the flexible floor plan provides plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Fully renovated
• Fresh paint

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• MOVE-IN READY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• UPDATED FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($347/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Idea Travis Academy (math 26% / reading 18%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 1,041 students, 77% FRL, charter); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 113 active listings in the ZIP; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,297/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 938% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,736 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-48,531
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-60,138
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79701

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,480/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,261

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $279,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 521-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $279,000 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-02-10
    soldstatus
15. 2025-09-18
    status Pending
16. 2025-08-29
    listed $75,000 Active
17. 1978-11-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,480 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,106 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,626/yr (+$219/mo · 105.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$2,480
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,205
• − Management: −$2,205
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$4,462
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,071
• After-tax cash flow: $1,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,131
• Household income: $57,346
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 938.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 28% White 27% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 57%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.32%
• Current HPI: 234.6111
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-09-18 Pending — PBBOR
• 2025-08-29 Listed $75,000 PBBOR
• 1978-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,480 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.