138 Alva St · Waconia, MN 55387

$375,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1996 0.49 ac lot $206/sqft · 9% below area Est $390k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful move-in ready home in Waconia! This home is filled with updates and feels like new construction. 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2 car garage. Two bedrooms up and two bedrooms down. Recent updates include updated kitchen with new countertops, light fixtures, and appliances; fresh paint throughout; and new flooring throughout most of the home. Walking distance to Clearwater Mills Park. Close to shopping, Lake Waconia, Waconia City Park, J. Carver Distillery and all that Waconia has to offer. Easy access to HWY 5. Do not miss your opportunity!

Key facts

• 0.49 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1996

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.49 acre (dimensions 70 x 155 x 227 x 160) on a city street with public road maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic door opener; 2-car garage (garage door 16' wide x 7' high)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Split entry (bi-level) home; Entry on main level
• Construction: Block foundation; Asphalt pitched roof (age over 8 years)
• Exterior features: Deck; Stone and vinyl exterior; Light tree coverage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen center island; Kitchen window; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Main level primary bedroom; Upper-level bedrooms; Lower-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main floor; One 3/4 bathroom in the basement with walk-in shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement with storage space, drain tile and sump pump; Vaulted ceiling(s); Water softener (owned); Informal dining room; Main floor primary bedroom; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Kitchen with center island and window; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric dryer hookup on lower level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-370 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.9% in Waconia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in MN, #1,424 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Waconia Public School District (town): math 62% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #19 of 301 in MN (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Waconia Middle School (math 54% / reading 62%, grade B, #33 of 258 statewide, top 13%, 937 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 682 units permitted in Carver County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carver County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $278k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $266,666 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,655
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -3.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
144 Huntington Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-8%)	24mo	$335,000	$200	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-84,339
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-103,879
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55387

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,667 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,242/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,135

Max offer price $309,703

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-157	-5% $-263	+0% $-370	+5% $-476	+10% $-582
Rent	-10% $-580	-5% $-475	+0% $-370	+5% $-264	+10% $-159
Rate	-1.0pp $-181	-0.5pp $-274	base $-370	+0.5pp $-467	+1.0pp $-566

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
426 Murray Hill Way Waconia, MN	3.0	3.0	1800	$2,699	$1.50	22d	1	0.30mi
601 Industrial Blvd Waconia, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,388	$2.50	0d	17	0.62mi
408 S Olive St Waconia, MN	5.0	3.0	2529	$2,995	$1.18	0d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-18
   historical Contingent - Inspection 911-char remark
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $375,000 Active 911-char remark
3. 2026-05-13
   historical $375,000 911-char remark
4. 2019-06-14
   soldstatus $277,500
5. 2019-06-03
   soldstatus $277,500 Sold 554-char remark

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   Beautiful move-in ready home in Waconia! This home is filled with updates and feels like new construction. 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2 car garage. Two bedrooms up and two bedrooms down. Recent updates include updated kitchen with new countertops, light fixtures, and appliances; fresh paint throughout; and new flooring throughout most of the home. Walking distance to Clearwater Mills Park. Close to shopping, Lake Waconia, Waconia City Park, J. Carver Distillery and all that Waconia has to offer. Easy access to HWY 5. Do not miss your opportunity!

6. 2019-05-20
   status Pending 554-char remark

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   Beautiful move-in ready home in Waconia! This home is filled with updates and feels like new construction. 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2 car garage. Two bedrooms up and two bedrooms down. Recent updates include updated kitchen with new countertops, light fixtures, and appliances; fresh paint throughout; and new flooring throughout most of the home. Walking distance to Clearwater Mills Park. Close to shopping, Lake Waconia, Waconia City Park, J. Carver Distillery and all that Waconia has to offer. Easy access to HWY 5. Do not miss your opportunity!

7. 2019-05-03
   historical 554-char remark

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   Beautiful move-in ready home in Waconia! This home is filled with updates and feels like new construction. 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2 car garage. Two bedrooms up and two bedrooms down. Recent updates include updated kitchen with new countertops, light fixtures, and appliances; fresh paint throughout; and new flooring throughout most of the home. Walking distance to Clearwater Mills Park. Close to shopping, Lake Waconia, Waconia City Park, J. Carver Distillery and all that Waconia has to offer. Easy access to HWY 5. Do not miss your opportunity!

8. 2019-04-27
   listed $279,900 Active 554-char remark

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   Beautiful move-in ready home in Waconia! This home is filled with updates and feels like new construction. 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2 car garage. Two bedrooms up and two bedrooms down. Recent updates include updated kitchen with new countertops, light fixtures, and appliances; fresh paint throughout; and new flooring throughout most of the home. Walking distance to Clearwater Mills Park. Close to shopping, Lake Waconia, Waconia City Park, J. Carver Distillery and all that Waconia has to offer. Easy access to HWY 5. Do not miss your opportunity!

9. 2005-12-15
   historical
10. 2005-07-25
    listed $245,900
11. 1996-04-17
    soldstatus $30,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,242 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,242 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$4,242
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,560
• − Management: −$2,560
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$11,152
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,676
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waconia Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2741460
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $84,157
• Composite: 56.83/100
• National rank: #1119
• State rank: #19 of 301 in MN

Livability — Waconia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waconia, MN
• County: Carver County · 77,775 people
• City population: 15,030
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 15,030
• Household income: $114,511
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 129.0

Population outlook (Carver County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,077 people
• By 2030: 122,880 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 137,210 · +19.2%
• By 2050: 148,524 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 174,624 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 185,806 · +61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 16% Romanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Carver

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.4) · D 46.3% · R 51.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.7pp toward D · 2008: -15.1pp · 2024: -5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.4 2020: R+4.9 2016: R+13.7 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.25%
• Current HPI: 219.4522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+1113.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $375,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Coming Soon $375,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $277,500 Public Records
• 2019-06-03 Sold (MLS) $277,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-20 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-03 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-27 Listed $279,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-25 Listed $245,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $30,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,242 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.