10516 Railroad Ave · North Collins, NY 14111

$109,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1925 0.28 ac lot Est $162k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

This upper/lower duplex is located on a quiet neighborhood street and offers excellent income potential for investors or owner-occupants. The lower unit features 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath, while the upper unit includes 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath, providing flexible and functional living spaces. Both units are equipped with separate laundry hookups, adding convenience and tenant appeal. With two rentable units in a desirable residential setting, this property presents a strong opportunity for steady rental income and long-term value. Both units are rented, please allow 48 hour notice for tenants.

Key facts

• Two rentable units
• Income potential
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• INCOME POTENTIAL
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY HOOKUPS
• TWO RENTABLE UNITS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $109,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$162,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $664 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $332/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#802 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• North Collins Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #589 of 755 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($760 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $108,251 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.88%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,000
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10652 Elm St	0.29mi	5/2.0	1,824 (-9%)	11mo	$173,000	$95	63
2090 Sherman Ave	0.04mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-10%)	17mo	$145,000	$81	63
2091 Spruce St	0.10mi	6/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-10%)	16mo	$142,500	$79	60
2044 Kimble Ave	0.25mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,080 (+4%)	22mo	$110,000	$53	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $63,050
• Equity at exit: $57,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $156,614
• Equity at exit: $95,126

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14111

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,639/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $664

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,066

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 60%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$1,906
Total (2 units)			$1,906

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-21
   listed $109,900 Active
3. 2024-04-17
   historical $775
4. 2024-04-16
   listed $775
5. 2018-03-13
   soldstatus $541,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,639 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,639 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$2,639
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,830
• − Management: −$1,830
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $6,671
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,601
• After-tax cash flow: $6,364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Collins Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620970
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,886
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #8071
• State rank: #589 of 755 in NY

Livability — North Collins

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #802
• US rank: #15516

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Collins, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,125

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.25%
• Current HPI: 346.2748
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-79.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $109,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-04-17 Rental Removed $775 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-16 Listed for Rent $775 APPFOLIO
• 2018-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $541,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,639 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.