209 Burning Tree Ct · McKee City, NJ 08330

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $475k · 47% under $40/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful and Spacious St. Andrews Model in The Fairways 55+ Community with Indoor/Outdoor Pool, Golf Course and ClubHouse. Oversized Garage. Ceiling Fans Throughout. Also Available For Rent in September. Furnished!

Key facts

• Anderson windows
• Newer roof
• St andrews model

Tags

• ST ANDREWS MODEL
• ANDERSON WINDOWS
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• LEAFGUARD GUTTER SYSTEM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEWER ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Finished area approximately 2,100 (above grade)
• Financial info: Monthly land lease payment of $1,053; Land lease years remaining: 0
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $40; Community amenities: Clubhouse, Fitness Center, Billiard Room, Game Room

Exterior

• Parking: Attached side-entry garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling; Natural gas for heating and hot water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Land lease ownership; Senior community with 55+ age requirement
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Community indoor heated pool; Above-grade other structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating and hot water
• Interior features: Estimated living area; No basement

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $249,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$474,600) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $436 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.0% in McKee City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hamilton Township School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #401 of 472 in NJ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $242,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.48%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $474,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
189 Pebble Beach Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-14%)	15mo	$210,000	$117	60
48 Monet Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,209 (+5%)	11mo	$599,000	$271	60
70 Galleria Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,900 (-10%)	1mo	$510,000	$268	59
10 Rue Chagall	0.72mi	3/2.5	2,080 (-1%)	8mo	$441,000	$212	56
511 Shires Way	0.65mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,172 (+3%)	0mo	$510,000	$235	53
66 Knollwood Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-14%)	6mo	$238,000	$132	51
32 Renaissance Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,384 (+14%)	1mo	$519,000	$218	40
119 Pennington Ave	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,906 (-9%)	14mo	$499,990	$262	38
102 Galleria Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,264 (+8%)	20mo	$506,000	$223	38
8 Rembrandt Way	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,384 (+14%)	1mo	$500,000	$210	38
23 Renaissance Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,860 (-11%)	15mo	$479,000	$258	36
116 Pennington Ave	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,340 (+11%)	14mo	$529,990	$226	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $163,953
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.59×
• Total profit: $461,099
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08330

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,237

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-05-16
    listed $249,900 Active
18. 2025-09-20
    historical
19. 2025-09-15
    historical
20. 2011-11-26
    historical 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Beautiful and Spacious St. Andrews Model in The Fairways 55+ Community with Indoor/Outdoor Pool, Golf Course and ClubHouse. Oversized Garage. Ceiling Fans Throughout. Also Available For Rent in September. Furnished!

21. 2011-05-25
    listed $145,000 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Beautiful and Spacious St. Andrews Model in The Fairways 55+ Community with Indoor/Outdoor Pool, Golf Course and ClubHouse. Oversized Garage. Ceiling Fans Throughout. Also Available For Rent in September. Furnished!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,677
• − Management: −$2,677
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable income: $1,366
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$328
• After-tax cash flow: $4,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3406510
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $60,997
• Composite: 21.34/100
• National rank: #8372
• State rank: #401 of 472 in NJ

Livability — McKee City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: McKee City, NJ
• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 29,972
• Household income: $77,167
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1003.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.58%
• Current HPI: 308.5148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+72.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-15 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-11-26 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2011-05-25 Listed $145,000 SJSRMLS