2521 Carpenters Park Rd · Belmont, PA 15928

$89,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1920 $90/sqft · 11% above area Est $80k · 11% over ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

THRU FERNDALE & OUT TO BENSCREEK, TURN LEFT AND FOLLOW 403 S. THRU TIRE HILL, AT TOP OF HILL TURN LEFT ON CARPENTER PARK ROAD.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Hot tub
• Jetted tub

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• JETTED TUB
• HOT TUB
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#725 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conemaugh Township Area SD (rural): math 59% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #45 of 539 in PA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $89k implies a 287% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,665 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.69%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,044
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: 11.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $26,982
• Equity at exit: $41,801

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $73,618
• Equity at exit: $65,843

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15928

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,064 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $627/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $774

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $89,000 Active 279-char remark
2. 2001-05-01
   soldstatus $23,000
3. 2001-04-30
   soldstatus $23,000 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   THRU FERNDALE & OUT TO BENSCREEK, TURN LEFT AND FOLLOW 403 S. THRU TIRE HILL, AT TOP OF HILL TURN LEFT ON CARPENTER PARK ROAD.

4. 2000-11-12
   listed $29,900 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   THRU FERNDALE & OUT TO BENSCREEK, TURN LEFT AND FOLLOW 403 S. THRU TIRE HILL, AT TOP OF HILL TURN LEFT ON CARPENTER PARK ROAD.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $627 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,017 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$390/yr (+$32/mo · 62.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$627
• − Insurance: −$1,112
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,021
• − Management: −$1,021
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $1,410
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$338
• After-tax cash flow: $2,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conemaugh Township Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4206420
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,140
• Composite: 56.55/100
• National rank: #1150
• State rank: #45 of 539 in PA

Livability — Belmont

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #725
• US rank: #7198

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,241

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,318 people
• By 2030: 68,555 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 62,447 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 56,437 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 44,453 · -37.7%
• By 2100: 32,408 · -54.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 6% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.2) · D 21.0% · R 78.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -57.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.2 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+55.9 2012: R+42.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Current HPI: 162.4325
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2001-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
• 2001-04-30 Sold (MLS) $23,000 CSMLS
• 2000-11-12 Listed $29,900 CSMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $627 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.