4138 Burkey Rd · Austintown, OH 44515

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1958 0.47 ac lot $115/sqft · at area comps Est $144k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don’t pass up this gem! This four bedroom two bath Ranch is bigger than it looks! The house sits back on the property Giving it a sense of privacy. This property has a beautiful backyard and a one car garage. This house is newly updated and remodeled. All appliances stay. Why pay rent?? Stop by and see us today

Key facts

• One car garage
• Beautiful backyard
• 0.47 acre lot

Tags

• ONE CAR GARAGE
• BEAUTIFUL BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.8% in Austintown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#322 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Austintown Local Schools (suburban): math 56% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #290 of 656 in OH (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $149k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $143,319 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.36%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,489
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: 3.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
923 Kirwan Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-0%)	2mo	$213,000	$165	74
4226 Burkey Rd	0.17mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,224 (-6%)	1mo	$117,500	$96	74
255 S Beverly Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-1%)	2mo	$185,000	$144	71
4230 Selkirk Ave	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,198 (-8%)	0mo	$190,000	$159	67
179 S Beverly Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-7%)	1mo	$189,900	$158	55
225 S Raccoon Rd	0.71mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,257 (-3%)	2mo	$165,000	$131	54
1649 Lancaster Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,144 (-12%)	2mo	$132,000	$115	52
1726 Lancaster Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,445 (+12%)	4mo	$210,000	$145	47
3990 Claridge Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,456 (+12%)	3mo	$225,000	$155	44
136 Rosemont Ave	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,438 (+11%)	2mo	$126,000	$88	43
3827 Frederick St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-11%)	1mo	$132,800	$115	42
263 S Main St	0.55mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,103 (-15%)	1mo	$128,000	$116	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-14,504
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-241
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44515

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,433 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,647/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,241

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4494 Burkey Rd Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.5	1596	$1,700	$1.07	44d	1	0.59mi
2230 S Raccoon Rd Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0–1.5	1141	$1,135	$0.99	13d	1	0.88mi
3968 Staatz Dr Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.5	1112	$1,650	$1.48	44d	1	0.94mi
2433 Bainbridge Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1640	$1,500	$0.91	21d	1	0.94mi
4661 New Hampshire Ct Austintown, OH	3.0	1.0–1.5	795	$1,325	$1.67	13d	1	0.96mi
2529 Bainbridge Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0	2.0	1692	$1,500	$0.89	44d	1	1.11mi
4815 Westchester Dr Unit 4896-05 Austintown, OH	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,025	$0.85	13d	1	1.13mi
70 N Raccoon Rd Youngstown, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	709	$975	$1.38	13d	1	1.23mi
131 N Edgehill Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	21d	1	1.25mi
155 N Roanoke Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.5	1632	$1,500	$0.92	21d	1	1.32mi
2239 Woodland Trce Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,850	$1.71	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $149,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    listed $169,000 Active 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Don’t pass up this gem! This four bedroom two bath Ranch is bigger than it looks! The house sits back on the property Giving it a sense of privacy. This property has a beautiful backyard and a one car garage. This house is newly updated and remodeled. All appliances stay. Why pay rent?? Stop by and see us today

18. 2018-10-08
    status Pending 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    This four bedroom, two bathroom Austintown ranch will check all your boxes! The spacious kitchen has updated cabinets, counter tops, and new appliances. Home also boasts a formal dining room, first floor laundry, large pantry, and a master suite with full bathroom and walk-in closet! Other important updates include furnace/AC (2011), garage floor/siding/roof (2015), ductless AC/Heat unit in master (2017), attic & wall insulation (2012). The list keeps going with newer roof, windows, hot water tank and electrical panel! Septic was replaced in 2013, and the sellers have already started the inspection process with the county. They are so confident in their home, that they are including a home warranty for the lucky buyer.

19. 2018-10-05
    soldstatus $84,650 Sold 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    This four bedroom, two bathroom Austintown ranch will check all your boxes! The spacious kitchen has updated cabinets, counter tops, and new appliances. Home also boasts a formal dining room, first floor laundry, large pantry, and a master suite with full bathroom and walk-in closet! Other important updates include furnace/AC (2011), garage floor/siding/roof (2015), ductless AC/Heat unit in master (2017), attic & wall insulation (2012). The list keeps going with newer roof, windows, hot water tank and electrical panel! Septic was replaced in 2013, and the sellers have already started the inspection process with the county. They are so confident in their home, that they are including a home warranty for the lucky buyer.

20. 2018-08-07
    historical Contingent 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    This four bedroom, two bathroom Austintown ranch will check all your boxes! The spacious kitchen has updated cabinets, counter tops, and new appliances. Home also boasts a formal dining room, first floor laundry, large pantry, and a master suite with full bathroom and walk-in closet! Other important updates include furnace/AC (2011), garage floor/siding/roof (2015), ductless AC/Heat unit in master (2017), attic & wall insulation (2012). The list keeps going with newer roof, windows, hot water tank and electrical panel! Septic was replaced in 2013, and the sellers have already started the inspection process with the county. They are so confident in their home, that they are including a home warranty for the lucky buyer.

21. 2018-08-02
    listed $85,000 Active 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    This four bedroom, two bathroom Austintown ranch will check all your boxes! The spacious kitchen has updated cabinets, counter tops, and new appliances. Home also boasts a formal dining room, first floor laundry, large pantry, and a master suite with full bathroom and walk-in closet! Other important updates include furnace/AC (2011), garage floor/siding/roof (2015), ductless AC/Heat unit in master (2017), attic & wall insulation (2012). The list keeps going with newer roof, windows, hot water tank and electrical panel! Septic was replaced in 2013, and the sellers have already started the inspection process with the county. They are so confident in their home, that they are including a home warranty for the lucky buyer.

22. 2010-07-12
    soldstatus $74,900
23. 2010-07-09
    soldstatus $74,900
24. 2010-04-21
    listed $74,900
25. 2010-03-05
    soldstatus $18,503
26. 2010-02-16
    listed $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,986 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$339/yr (+$28/mo · 20.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,647
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,376
• − Management: −$1,376
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$150
• After-tax cash flow: $1,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austintown Local Schools
• NCES district ID: 3904829
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,129
• Composite: 50.99/100
• National rank: #1778
• State rank: #290 of 656 in OH

Livability — Austintown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #322
• US rank: #5290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austintown, OH
• County: Mahoning · 224,175 people
• City population: 27,740
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 27,740
• Household income: $52,831
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.9

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.64%
• Current HPI: 228.0895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+1026.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $169,000 MLSNOW
• 2018-10-08 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2018-10-05 Sold (MLS) $84,650 MLSNOW
• 2018-08-07 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2018-08-02 Listed $85,000 MLSNOW
• 2010-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $74,900 Public Records
• 2010-07-09 Sold (MLS) $74,900 MLSNOW
• 2010-04-21 Listed $74,900 MLSNOW
• 2010-03-05 Sold (MLS) $18,503 MLSNOW
• 2010-02-16 Listed $15,000 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,647 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.