63 Michel St · Hayfork, CA 96041

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured public records · 299 Days on market

Built 1970 Est $50k · at est. ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This property is a . 30-acre city lot with an older Fleetwood mobile home that could use some TLC. The lot is a nice size and has city water and city sewer connected and Power with Trinity PUD so you get some of the cheapest electricity in the state! The home was a two bedroom and one Bath and a one-half bath. With the additions there is a third room that could be used for a bedroom, and a large utility room area. Per the owner the roof was replaced and is still under warranty. With some work you could bring this home back to life, the options are for you to decide. The property is located close to town with just minutes from shopping and schools. This one is worth a look! Due to set up and

Key facts

• Built 1970
• Listed 299 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $508 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 3.0% in Hayfork — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#677 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mountain Valley Unified (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #788 of 1,400 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trinity County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.51%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $50,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
63 Michel St	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$50,000	$50	97

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $24,241
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.49×
• Total profit: $62,800
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96041

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $749/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-02-25
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-16
   status Active
3. 2025-09-16
   price $50,000
4. 2025-08-20
   status Active
5. 2025-07-08
   status Pending
6. 2025-05-12
   price $59,000
7. 2025-03-17
   status Active
8. 2024-10-07
   status Active
9. 2024-09-18
   status Pending
10. 2024-08-23
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $749 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $749 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 83% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 45 unhealthy d/yr today · 49 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$749
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,037
• − Management: −$1,037
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $5,630
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,351
• After-tax cash flow: $4,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600018
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,254
• Composite: 35.23/100
• National rank: #9851
• State rank: #788 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayfork

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #677
• US rank: #20786

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayfork, CA
• City population: 3,413
• Population (ZIP): 3,413

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,337 people
• By 2030: 10,349 · -8.7%
• By 2040: 8,518 · -24.9%
• By 2050: 7,084 · -37.5%
• By 2075: 4,693 · -58.6%
• By 2100: 2,894 · -74.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Asian 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 9% Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 43.4% · R 52.8% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+5.4 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+1.1 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.83%
• Current HPI: 117.7109
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Pending — Trinity AOR
• 2025-09-16 Relisted — Trinity AOR
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $50,000 Trinity AOR
• 2025-08-20 Relisted — Trinity AOR
• 2025-07-08 Pending — Trinity AOR
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $59,000 Trinity AOR
• 2025-03-17 Relisted — Trinity AOR
• 2024-10-07 Relisted — Trinity AOR
• 2024-09-18 Pending — Trinity AOR
• 2024-08-23 Listed $65,000 Trinity AOR

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $749 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.