8622 Fernwood Loop · Semmes, AL 36575

$290,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,287 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 2016 0.29 ac lot $127/sqft · 10% below area Est $324k · 10% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With a little TLC this 4 bedroom 3 bath home will be a show stopper! Features include Fireplace, Split bedroom plan, Office, Covered Back Porch overlooking wooded back yard, Formal Dining, Double Vanity, Separate Tub/Shower, and Double Garage! Magnolia Springs Community is Walkable and has amenities including a Pool, Playground, and Club House! A must see! Subject to the approval of probate court - Sold AS IS WHERE IS. Cosmetic needs include flooring (carpet and/or LVP) and Paint. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Office
• Double vanity
• Formal dining

Tags

• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN
• OFFICE
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• WOODED BACK YARD
• FORMAL DINING
• DOUBLE VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.3% in Semmes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#311 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $231k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,591
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -10.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2268 Edison Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,348 (+3%)	4mo	$315,000	$134	83
2288 PHILSDALE Ln	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,324 (+2%)	0mo	$320,000	$138	75
8562 Fernwood Loop N	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,622 (+15%)	1mo	$320,000	$122	71
2575 Oak Grove Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,308 (+1%)	9mo	$330,000	$143	65
2358 Laurel St	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,374 (+4%)	7mo	$374,000	$158	65
2360 E PHILSDALE Ln	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,091 (-9%)	2mo	$324,900	$155	60
8800 Floyd Crabtree Way	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,393 (+5%)	10mo	$345,000	$144	57
8705 Floyd Crabtree Way	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,175 (-5%)	11mo	$329,000	$151	57
2345 Laurel St	0.46mi	4/3.5	2,495 (+9%)	10mo	$355,000	$142	54
8770 Floyd Crabtree Way	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,095 (-8%)	12mo	$390,575	$186	52
2555 Oak Grove Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,111 (-8%)	13mo	$313,500	$149	50
2240 Clairmont Dr W	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,962 (-14%)	12mo	$276,000	$141	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-31,035
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-6,720
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36575

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,482/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,276

Max offer price $290,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $416	-5% $334	+0% $252	+5% $170	+10% $88
Rent	-10% $47	-5% $149	+0% $252	+5% $354	+10% $457
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $326	base $252	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2376 Marigold Loop E Semmes, AL	4.0	3.0	3000	$2,595	$0.86	21d	1	0.57mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $290,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $290,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $290,000 Active 117 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    status Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    With a little TLC this 4 bedroom 3 bath home will be a show stopper! Features include Fireplace, Split bedroom plan, Office, Covered Back Porch overlooking wooded back yard, Formal Dining, Double Vanity, Separate Tub/Shower, and Double Garage! Magnolia Springs Community is Walkable and has amenities including a Pool, Playground, and Club House! A must see! Subject to the approval of probate court - Sold AS IS WHERE IS. Cosmetic needs include flooring (carpet and/or LVP) and Paint.

18. 2026-05-12
    status Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    With a little TLC this 4 bedroom 3 bath home will be a show stopper! Features include Fireplace, Split bedroom plan, Office, Covered Back Porch overlooking wooded back yard, Formal Dining, Double Vanity, Separate Tub/Shower, and Double Garage! Magnolia Springs Community is Walkable and has amenities including a Pool, Playground, and Club House! A must see! Subject to the approval of probate court - Sold AS IS WHERE IS. Cosmetic needs include flooring (carpet and/or LVP) and Paint.

19. 2026-03-26
    status Pending 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    With a little TLC this 4 bedroom 3 bath home will be a show stopper! Features include Fireplace, Split bedroom plan, Office, Covered Back Porch overlooking wooded back yard, Formal Dining, Double Vanity, Separate Tub/Shower, and Double Garage! Magnolia Springs Community is Walkable and has amenities including a Pool, Playground, and Club House! A must see! Subject to the approval of probate court - Sold AS IS WHERE IS. Cosmetic needs include flooring (carpet and/or LVP) and Paint. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2026-03-26
    status Pending 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    With a little TLC this 4 bedroom 3 bath home will be a show stopper! Features include Fireplace, Split bedroom plan, Office, Covered Back Porch overlooking wooded back yard, Formal Dining, Double Vanity, Separate Tub/Shower, and Double Garage! Magnolia Springs Community is Walkable and has amenities including a Pool, Playground, and Club House! A must see! Subject to the approval of probate court - Sold AS IS WHERE IS. Cosmetic needs include flooring (carpet and/or LVP) and Paint. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

21. 2026-01-16
    price $290,000 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    With a little TLC this 4 bedroom 3 bath home will be a show stopper! Features include Fireplace, Split bedroom plan, Office, Covered Back Porch overlooking wooded back yard, Formal Dining, Double Vanity, Separate Tub/Shower, and Double Garage! Magnolia Springs Community is Walkable and has amenities including a Pool, Playground, and Club House! A must see! Subject to the approval of probate court - Sold AS IS WHERE IS. Cosmetic needs include flooring (carpet and/or LVP) and Paint. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

22. 2026-01-16
    price $290,000 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    With a little TLC this 4 bedroom 3 bath home will be a show stopper! Features include Fireplace, Split bedroom plan, Office, Covered Back Porch overlooking wooded back yard, Formal Dining, Double Vanity, Separate Tub/Shower, and Double Garage! Magnolia Springs Community is Walkable and has amenities including a Pool, Playground, and Club House! A must see! Subject to the approval of probate court - Sold AS IS WHERE IS. Cosmetic needs include flooring (carpet and/or LVP) and Paint. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

23. 2025-12-17
    listed $295,000 Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    With a little TLC this 4 bedroom 3 bath home will be a show stopper! Features include Fireplace, Split bedroom plan, Office, Covered Back Porch overlooking wooded back yard, Formal Dining, Double Vanity, Separate Tub/Shower, and Double Garage! Magnolia Springs Community is Walkable and has amenities including a Pool, Playground, and Club House! A must see! Subject to the approval of probate court - Sold AS IS WHERE IS. Cosmetic needs include flooring (carpet and/or LVP) and Paint. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

24. 2025-12-17
    listed $295,000 Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    With a little TLC this 4 bedroom 3 bath home will be a show stopper! Features include Fireplace, Split bedroom plan, Office, Covered Back Porch overlooking wooded back yard, Formal Dining, Double Vanity, Separate Tub/Shower, and Double Garage! Magnolia Springs Community is Walkable and has amenities including a Pool, Playground, and Club House! A must see! Subject to the approval of probate court - Sold AS IS WHERE IS. Cosmetic needs include flooring (carpet and/or LVP) and Paint. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

25. 2024-05-05
    price $299,900
26. 2018-03-02
    soldstatus $231,060
27. 2016-06-30
    listed $236,060

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,482 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,482 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$1,482
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,491
• − Management: −$2,491
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$1,851
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$444
• After-tax cash flow: $3,467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Semmes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #19360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,444

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.58%
• Current HPI: 217.5112
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+22.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — BCAR
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-26 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-26 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $290,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $290,000 BCAR
• 2025-12-17 Listed $295,000 GCMLS AL
• 2025-12-17 Listed $295,000 BCAR
• 2024-05-05 Price Changed $299,900 GCMLS AL
• 2018-03-02 Sold (MLS) $231,060 BCAR
• 2016-06-30 Listed $236,060 BCAR

Property tax history

+21.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,482 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.