420 Third Ave · Picayune, MS 39466

$64,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,094 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1930 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming potential with this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home on a desirable corner lot with tons of potential. Looking to create their own vision, this is it. Large, privacy fenced back yard, great for pets, family or play. The covered front and back porch allow for relaxing outdoors enjoyment.

Key facts

• Corner lot
• 0.32 acre lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PRIVACY FENCED BACK YARD
• COVERED FRONT AND BACK PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Playground nearby; Nearby restaurant

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with space for 2 vehicles
• Security: Dead bolt locks
• Utilities: Public sewer; Community water; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One level
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Built as a fixer (needs renovation)
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Private yard; Back yard fencing; Privacy fencing; Corner lot; Fenced

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (1.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dead bolt locks; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 3.3% in Picayune — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#11 in MS, #3,748 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment F.
• Picayune School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #60 of 130 in MS (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 344 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 326 units permitted in Pearl River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pearl River County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.88%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,220
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
703 E Canal St	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,157 (+6%)	9mo	$149,999	$130	73
701 Simmons St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,250 (+14%)	6mo	$162,000	$130	55
603 2nd St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+12%)	22mo	$143,000	$117	55
310 S Steele Ave	0.36mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,052 (-4%)	21mo	$76,300	$73	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $13,477
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $42,612
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39466

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $550/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $523

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1010 Telly Rd Picayune, MS	2.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	13d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $64,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 288-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $64,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $550 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $550 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$550
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $3,683
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$884
• After-tax cash flow: $3,638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Picayune School District
• NCES district ID: 2803630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,446
• Composite: 27.17/100
• National rank: #7025
• State rank: #60 of 130 in MS

Livability — Picayune

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #3748

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picayune, MS
• Population (ZIP): 28,292

Population outlook (Pearl River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,426 people
• By 2030: 51,663 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 47,611 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 43,286 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 32,859 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 22,476 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 18% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pearl River

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.1% · R 82.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -60.4pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+60.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.32%
• Current HPI: 194.6541
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $64,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $550 · -24.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.