1811 Bedford Ln · Sun City Center, FL 33573

$109,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 800 sqft · Condo · 36 Days on market

Built 1973 $617/mo HOA · 39% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must see! Beautiful condo in a 55 plus community, many amenities (in and outdoor pools, clubhouse, golf course, tennis courts, fitness center, many communities' activities, transportation to local services) Don't miss this opportunity to own this Condo and star enjoying the Florida lifestyle Refrigerator does not convey, it will be replaced,

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• Fully renovated
• Park-like view

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• PARK-LIKE VIEW
• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILED BACKSPLASH
• PASS-THRU COFFEE BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $92k (15.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#178 in FL, #2,736 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cypress Creek Elementary School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 957 students, 63% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 605 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,627 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.72%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-25,462
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-32,643
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33573

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,583 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$617
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,735

Max offer price $91,627

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-45	-5% $-82	+0% $-120	+5% $-158	+10% $-195
Rent	-10% $-245	-5% $-183	+0% $-120	+5% $-58	+10% $5
Rate	-1.0pp $-65	-0.5pp $-92	base $-120	+0.5pp $-148	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 Bedford Trl Unit F128 Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,275	$1.33	26d	1	0.08mi
409 Feltham Trl Unit B Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,650	$1.68	26d	1	0.08mi
403 Finchley Ct Unit B Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	26d	1	0.08mi
202 Bedford Trl #99 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	7d	1	0.10mi
306 Fowling Ct Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	26d	1	0.12mi
1901 Andover Way #38 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,495	$1.87	26d	1	0.12mi
201 Bedford St #95 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,450	$1.81	17d	1	0.14mi
201 Kings Blvd #19 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,495	$1.87	26d	1	0.16mi
1814 Foxhunt Dr Unit A Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,475	$1.84	26d	1	0.18mi
301 Kings Blvd #138 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	1020	$1,800	$1.76	24d	1	0.18mi
1802 Bedford Ln Sun City Center, FL	1.0–2.0	2.0	952	$1,500	$1.58	13d	2	0.20mi
1802 Bedford Ter #182 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	960	$1,375	$1.43	24d	1	0.21mi
1802 Bedford Ter #182 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,400	$1.75	20d	1	0.21mi
101 Cambridge Trl Sun City Center, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	880	$1,450	$1.65	13d	1	0.33mi
323 Knottwood Ct Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.0	908	$1,290	$1.42	26d	1	0.36mi
323 Knottwood Ct #1 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.0	908	$1,090	$1.20	7d	1	0.36mi
302 Canton Ct #62 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,575	$1.97	20d	1	0.40mi
2202 Clubhouse Dr #187 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,550	$1.94	26d	1	0.45mi
2202 Clubhouse Dr #169 Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,450	$1.47	7d	1	0.45mi
1902 Dandridge St #12 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,495	$1.87	16d	1	0.52mi
704 Tremont Greens Ln Unit 107 Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$1,700	$1.75	26d	1	0.65mi
2345 Glenmore Cir Unit 294 Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,500	$1.52	26d	1	0.67mi
207 Islip Way Sun City Center, FL	2.0	1.5	992	$1,500	$1.51	20d	1	0.68mi
1301 Warwick Ct Unit 1301 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.0	1102	$1,575	$1.43	26d	1	0.81mi
2124 Hailstone Cir Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	26d	1	1.25mi
2102 Hereford Dr #513 Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	26d	1	1.37mi
704 Torrey Pines Ave Sun City Center, FL	2.0	1.0	981	$1,700	$1.73	17d	1	1.42mi
704 Torrey Pines Ave Sun City Center, FL	2.0	1.0	981	$1,675	$1.71	26d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $617 · $7,404/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $109,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-03-30
   price $118,000
9. 2026-01-09
   status Active
10. 2026-01-09
    price $123,000
11. 2025-12-15
    historical
12. 2025-12-15
    historical
13. 2025-11-19
    listed $133,000 Active
14. 2022-08-17
    soldstatus $135,000 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    Must see! Beautiful condo in a 55 plus community, many amenities (in and outdoor pools, clubhouse, golf course, tennis courts, fitness center, many communities' activities, transportation to local services) Don't miss this opportunity to own this Condo and star enjoying the Florida lifestyle Refrigerator does not convey, it will be replaced,

15. 2022-07-22
    listed $135,000 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    Must see! Beautiful condo in a 55 plus community, many amenities (in and outdoor pools, clubhouse, golf course, tennis courts, fitness center, many communities' activities, transportation to local services) Don't miss this opportunity to own this Condo and star enjoying the Florida lifestyle Refrigerator does not convey, it will be replaced,

16. 2019-11-11
    historical
17. 2012-04-09
    historical
18. 2012-04-09
    historical
19. 2012-04-06
    listed $26,900
20. 2012-04-06
    listed $26,900
21. 2012-04-04
    listed $26,900
22. 2004-09-09
    soldstatus $45,000
23. 2004-06-21
    soldstatus $51,000
24. 2004-06-09
    listed $47,900
25. 2004-04-19
    listed $51,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,519
• − Management: −$1,519
• − HOA: −$7,404
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable loss: −$2,908
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$698
• After-tax cash flow: $-743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sun City Center

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #2736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sun City Center, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 35,362
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,362
• Household income: $72,834
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1382.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.27%
• Current HPI: 272.9767
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+127.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $118,000 HCAR
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — HCAR
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $123,000 HCAR
• 2025-12-15 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2025-12-15 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2025-11-19 Listed $133,000 HCAR
• 2022-08-17 Sold (MLS) $135,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2022-07-22 Listed $135,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2019-11-11 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2012-04-09 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2012-04-09 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2012-04-06 Listed $26,900 HCAR
• 2012-04-06 Listed $26,900 HCAR
• 2012-04-04 Listed $26,900 HCAR
• 2004-09-09 Sold (MLS) $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-21 Sold (MLS) $51,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-09 Listed $47,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-19 Listed $51,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid