10697 N Java Rd · Wellston, MI 49644

$69,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1975 1.04 ac lot $171/sqft · 31% below area Est $101k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Up North getaway with endless potential! This offering includes two half-acre parcels located directly across the road from Federal Land, providing instant access to hunting, hiking, and year-round recreation. Ride your ORV and snowmobiles right from the property to the trail system. With two separate parcels, this is a great opportunity to purchase with a family member or friend--each can enjoy their own space while still being right next door. The North parcel features a rustic, unfinished cabin with an updated electrical panel, a pitcher pump ready for hookup, and a start to a remodel. The South parcel offers a 1,250-gallon septic, 2'' well (just add pump), plus a garage and shed. Ideal for bringing your camper now while planning a future build. No zoning in Elk Township--permits through Lake County.

Key facts

• Access to hunting
• Access to hiking
• 1.04 acre lot

Tags

• TWO HALF-ACRE PARCELS
• ACCESS TO HUNTING
• ACCESS TO HIKING
• YEAR-ROUND RECREATION
• ORV AND SNOWMOBILE ACCESS
• RUSTIC UNFINISHED CABIN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($768 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#661 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $70k implies a 774% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.72%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,426
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -31.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $47,123
• Equity at exit: $62,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.73×
• Total profit: $131,651
• Equity at exit: $135,800

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49644

• Home prices YoY: 12.6%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $822/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$161
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $588

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   Great Up North getaway with endless potential! This offering includes two half-acre parcels located directly across the road from Federal Land, providing instant access to hunting, hiking, and year-round recreation. Ride your ORV and snowmobiles right from the property to the trail system. With two separate parcels, this is a great opportunity to purchase with a family member or friend--each can enjoy their own space while still being right next door. The North parcel features a rustic, unfinished cabin with an updated electrical panel, a pitcher pump ready for hookup, and a start to a remodel. The South parcel offers a 1,250-gallon septic, 2'' well (just add pump), plus a garage and shed. Ideal for bringing your camper now while planning a future build. No zoning in Elk Township--permits through Lake County.

2. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   Great Up North getaway with endless potential! This offering includes two half-acre parcels located directly across the road from Federal Land, providing instant access to hunting, hiking, and year-round recreation. Ride your ORV and snowmobiles right from the property to the trail system. With two separate parcels, this is a great opportunity to purchase with a family member or friend--each can enjoy their own space while still being right next door. The North parcel features a rustic, unfinished cabin with an updated electrical panel, a pitcher pump ready for hookup, and a start to a remodel. The South parcel offers a 1,250-gallon septic, 2'' well (just add pump), plus a garage and shed. Ideal for bringing your camper now while planning a future build. No zoning in Elk Township--permits through Lake County.

3. 2026-05-18
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   Great Up North getaway with endless potential! This offering includes two half-acre parcels located directly across the road from Federal Land, providing instant access to hunting, hiking, and year-round recreation. Ride your ORV and snowmobiles right from the property to the trail system. With two separate parcels, this is a great opportunity to purchase with a family member or friend--each can enjoy their own space while still being right next door. The North parcel features a rustic, unfinished cabin with an updated electrical panel, a pitcher pump ready for hookup, and a start to a remodel. The South parcel offers a 1,250-gallon septic, 2'' well (just add pump), plus a garage and shed. Ideal for bringing your camper now while planning a future build. No zoning in Elk Township--permits through Lake County.

4. 2026-04-17
   listed $69,900 Active 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   Great Up North getaway with endless potential! This offering includes two half-acre parcels located directly across the road from Federal Land, providing instant access to hunting, hiking, and year-round recreation. Ride your ORV and snowmobiles right from the property to the trail system. With two separate parcels, this is a great opportunity to purchase with a family member or friend--each can enjoy their own space while still being right next door. The North parcel features a rustic, unfinished cabin with an updated electrical panel, a pitcher pump ready for hookup, and a start to a remodel. The South parcel offers a 1,250-gallon septic, 2'' well (just add pump), plus a garage and shed. Ideal for bringing your camper now while planning a future build. No zoning in Elk Township--permits through Lake County.

5. 2026-04-17
   listed $69,900 Active 820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   Great Up North getaway with endless potential! This offering includes two half-acre parcels located directly across the road from Federal Land, providing instant access to hunting, hiking, and year-round recreation. Ride your ORV and snowmobiles right from the property to the trail system. With two separate parcels, this is a great opportunity to purchase with a family member or friend--each can enjoy their own space while still being right next door. The North parcel features a rustic, unfinished cabin with an updated electrical panel, a pitcher pump ready for hookup, and a start to a remodel. The South parcel offers a 1,250-gallon septic, 2'' well (just add pump), plus a garage and shed. Ideal for bringing your camper now while planning a future build. No zoning in Elk Township--permits through Lake County.

6. 2026-04-17
   listed $69,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (820 chars)

   Great Up North getaway with endless potential! This offering includes two half-acre parcels located directly across the road from Federal Land, providing instant access to hunting, hiking, and year-round recreation. Ride your ORV and snowmobiles right from the property to the trail system. With two separate parcels, this is a great opportunity to purchase with a family member or friend--each can enjoy their own space while still being right next door. The North parcel features a rustic, unfinished cabin with an updated electrical panel, a pitcher pump ready for hookup, and a start to a remodel. The South parcel offers a 1,250-gallon septic, 2'' well (just add pump), plus a garage and shed. Ideal for bringing your camper now while planning a future build. No zoning in Elk Township--permits through Lake County.

7. 2017-06-07
   soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $822 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $949 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$127/yr (+$11/mo · 15.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$822
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$737
• − Management: −$737
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $616
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$148
• After-tax cash flow: $1,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Wellston

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #661
• US rank: #22773

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,846

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.53%
• Current HPI: 236.7989
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+773.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-18 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $69,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2017-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $822 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.