6471 Kelly Rd · Sodus, NY 14551

$119,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2010 1.03 ac lot Est $187k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1280 SF Mobile Home on 1 Acre, 2 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, Eat-in Kitchen, Woodburning Fireplace, spacious master bath w/ soaking tub & separate shower, Double wide Blacktop driveway w/ additional parking pad next to an oversized 2 car garage w/ propane furnace, 220 outlets & a center floor drain. Large Private Backyard w/ 27' above ground pool w/ large deck, 10x10 Shed, The Seller desires Delayed Negotiations, with No Negotiations taking place until 12:00 PM Tuesday June 16th. Please make offers good for 24 hours. Please have any offers submitted before 12:00 PM on June 16th.

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Eat-in kitchen
• Separate shower

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• WOODBURNING FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS MASTER BATH
• SOAKING TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• DOUBLE WIDE BLACKTOP DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached heated garage with electricity and garage door opener; Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story; Single-wide mobile home; Resale property; Existing construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Primary suite; Bedroom on main level; Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment D-.
• Sodus Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #462 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $120k implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $118,101 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.92%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,880
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6531 Kelly Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-12%)	21mo	$163,000	$146	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-8,832
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $6,102
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14551

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,327 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,453/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,118

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $119,900 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 584-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $119,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,453 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,453 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$2,453
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,274
• − Management: −$1,274
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $124
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$30
• After-tax cash flow: $1,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sodus Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627120
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $46,269
• Composite: 38.29/100
• National rank: #4233
• State rank: #462 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sodus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,969

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 11% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.35%
• Current HPI: 224.7978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+306.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $119,900 UNYREIS
• 2013-02-25 Listed $75,000 UNYREIS
• 2009-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2007-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records
• 1996-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 1993-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $29,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,453 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.