5539 Gatewood Trl · Seguin, TX 78155

$222,949

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,867 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot Garage $119/sqft · 13% below area Est $257k · 13% under $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Morrow - This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern design. On the first floor, a flexible open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. On the second floor, three secondary bedrooms surround a versatile loft for convenient shared living. Estimated Completion September 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Versatile loft
• 4,791 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• LUXURIOUS OWNER'S SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• VERSATILE LOFT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $223k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-572 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (37.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (37.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Koennecke El (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 550 students, 73% FRL); Jim Barnes Middle (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 797 students, 75% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1833 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,214 (37.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,994
• List price: $222,949
• Delta: -13.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10136 Gold Pt	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,795 (-4%)	1mo	$245,999	$137	91
8968 Gila Rdg	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+2%)	7mo	$245,999	$129	84
301 Sawtooth Oak	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,743 (-7%)	9mo	$400,000	$229	79
8972 Gila Rdg	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,024 (+8%)	7mo	$244,999	$121	78
715 Prince Albert	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+9%)	8mo	$309,990	$152	76
337 Cottonmouth Ln	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+9%)	9mo	$299,990	$147	75
10124 Gold Pt	0.00mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,657 (-11%)	1mo	$228,999	$138	74
8980 Gila Rdg	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (-12%)	7mo	$278,999	$171	66
276 Riverview Ter	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,753 (-6%)	3mo	$165,000	$94	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-73,988
• Equity at exit: $33,242

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.88×
• Total profit: $-117,121
• Equity at exit: $19,277

Cash invested: $62,426 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $247,999 ($137/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 30% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1833
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,861 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$279 /mo · $3,344/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,585

Max offer price $140,214

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-418	-5% $-495	+0% $-572	+5% $-649	+10% $-726
Rent	-10% $-719	-5% $-645	+0% $-572	+5% $-498	+10% $-425
Rate	-1.0pp $-459	-0.5pp $-515	base $-572	+0.5pp $-630	+1.0pp $-688

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,737
• Closing costs: $6,688
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
882 Buerger Ln Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$1,600	$1.15	139d	1	0.24mi
438 Forshage Blvd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,595	$1.09	7d	1	0.60mi
1508 Gateshead Dr Seguin, TX	5.0	2.5	2508	$1,900	$0.76	75d	1	1.09mi
1057 Clarkston Dr Seguin, TX	5.0	2.5	2508	$2,000	$0.80	119d	1	1.11mi
1045 Polmont Ct Seguin, TX	5.0	3.5	2320	$2,350	$1.01	42d	1	1.14mi
1024 Sandwell Ct Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1574	$1,849	$1.17	40d	1	1.18mi
1009 Sandwell Ct Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2069	$1,749	$0.85	6d	1	1.22mi
1013 Dumfries Dr Seguin, TX	5.0	2.5	2508	$1,921	$0.77	139d	1	1.23mi
1556 Birmingham Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$1,850	$1.13	84d	1	1.29mi
1556 Birmingham Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$1,750	$1.06	43d	1	1.29mi
1512 Doncaster Dr Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,695	$1.29	139d	1	1.35mi
1533 Redbridge Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$1,550	$0.94	29d	1	1.37mi
1533 Redbridge Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$1,550	$0.94	24d	1	1.37mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Navarro Ranch
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAQuarterly HOA feeAssociation transfer fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage
• Utilities: Water service: CrystalSewer service: CrystalGas supplier: UnigasElectricity supplier: GVECGarbage service: Frontier
• Home design: New construction by LennarBrick, siding, and cement fiber exteriorEntry level primary bedroom
• Construction: Slab foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: Pool (community)Clubhouse (community)Park/Playground (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen 10 x 10Stove/RangeDishwasherBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 10 x 12Bedroom 3: 10 x 10Bedroom 4: 12 x 10Primary bedroom: 14 x 12
• Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, one with shower only and single vanityOne half bath (total 2 full, 1 half)
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric and natural gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor planTwo living areasBreakfast barLoftUtility room insideLaundry on main levelWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry room inside on main level

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $222,949 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $222,949 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $222,949 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $222,949 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $222,949 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $222,949 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $222,949 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $222,949 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $222,949 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $222,949 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $222,949 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $222,949 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $222,949 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $222,949 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $222,949 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $222,949 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $222,949 Active 55 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $222,949 Active 52 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $222,949 Active 51 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $222,949 Active 50 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $222,949 Active 49 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $222,949 Active 48 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $222,949 Active 46 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $222,949 Active 45 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $222,949 Active 44 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $222,949 Active 43 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $222,949 Active 42 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $222,949 Active 41 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $222,949 Active 40 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $222,949 Active 39 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $222,949 Active 38 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $222,949 Active 37 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $222,949 Active 36 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $222,949 Active 35 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $222,949 Active 34 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $222,949 Active 33 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $222,949 Active 32 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $222,949 Active 31 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $222,949 Active 30 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $222,949 Active 29 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $222,949 Active 27 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $222,949 Active 26 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    statusdays on market $222,949 Active 25 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $222,949 Back on Market 24 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $222,949 Back on Market 21 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $222,949 Back on Market 20 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $222,949 Back on Market 19 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $222,949 Back on Market 18 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    statusdays on market $222,949 Back on Market 16 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    status $222,949 Pending 14 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,489
• − Property taxes: −$3,344
• − Insurance: −$6,233
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,787
• − Management: −$1,787
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$6,486
• Taxable loss: −$10,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,565
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious and open floor plan with a luxurious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Koennecke El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Jim Barnes Middle F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Seguin H S F TX #1,011/1,632 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

---

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Navarro Ranch
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAQuarterly HOA feeAssociation transfer fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage
• Utilities: Water service: CrystalSewer service: CrystalGas supplier: UnigasElectricity supplier: GVECGarbage service: Frontier
• Home design: New construction by LennarBrick, siding, and cement fiber exteriorEntry level primary bedroom
• Construction: Slab foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: Pool (community)Clubhouse (community)Park/Playground (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen 10 x 10Stove/RangeDishwasherBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 10 x 12Bedroom 3: 10 x 10Bedroom 4: 12 x 10Primary bedroom: 14 x 12
• Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, one with shower only and single vanityOne half bath (total 2 full, 1 half)
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric and natural gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor planTwo living areasBreakfast barLoftUtility room insideLaundry on main levelWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry room inside on main level

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-07-06 Listed $221,999 LERA