415 W Frost Ave · Rantoul, IL 61866

$135,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2023 7,405 sqft lot Est $170k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.3% in Rantoul — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#533 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Rantoul Township Hsd 193 (town): math 10% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #824 of 919 in IL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 53 active listings in the ZIP; 573 units permitted in Champaign County in 2024 (359 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Champaign County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $124,558 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.58%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,000
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1554 S Pointe Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,134 (+7%)	6mo	$174,000	$82	69
317 Naples Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,185 (+9%)	5mo	$166,000	$76	62
1565 S Pointe Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,871 (-6%)	9mo	$158,500	$85	62
1509 South Pointe Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,187 (+9%)	23mo	$190,000	$87	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 6.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $85,318
• Equity at exit: $121,619

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.78×
• Total profit: $256,374
• Equity at exit: $262,275

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61866

• Home prices YoY: 10.8%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,246 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,283/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,103

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $135,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active (Private) 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active (Private) 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active (Private) 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active (Private) 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active (Private) 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active (Private) 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active (Private) 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active (Private) 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active (Private) 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active (Private) 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active (Private) 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active (Private) 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active (Private) 11 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,283 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,174 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$891/yr (+$74/mo · 69.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,283
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,196
• − Management: −$1,196
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$892
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$214
• After-tax cash flow: $1,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rantoul Township Hsd 193
• NCES district ID: 1733240
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,128
• Composite: 12.14/100
• National rank: #14582
• State rank: #824 of 919 in IL

Livability — Rantoul

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #533
• US rank: #11081

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rantoul, IL
• County: Champaign County · 182,148 people
• City population: 13,470
• Metro: Champaign-Urbana, IL
• Population (ZIP): 13,470
• Household income: $50,686
• Rent vs Own: 42.9% rent · 57.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 281.0

Population outlook (Champaign County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,848 people
• By 2030: 231,416 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 244,321 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 256,432 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 285,823 · +27.7%
• By 2100: 296,406 · +32.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Champaign

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.1) · D 61.3% · R 37.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.1 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+18.4 2012: D+6.8 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.49%
• Current HPI: 272.2527
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.56%
• Metro: Champaign-Urbana, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,283 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.