3048 Eagle Bay Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$315,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,947 sqft · Land · 86 Days on market

Built 2026 5,863 sqft lot $162/sqft · 8% below area Est $344k · 8% under $150/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Franklin Plan, located in the Sunterra community. This new home layout offers 2 classic front exteriors, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2 car-garage and 1891 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Franklin to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept living room, kitchen, and dining area. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area so you don't miss a thing while cooking and includes quartz counter tops, stainless steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the front of the home on the second story and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, quartz countertops, a grand walk-in closet and plenty of storage space. The second story includes all secondary bedrooms, and two full bathrooms. You'll have carpeted floors in every bedroom and sheet vinyl flooring in your bathrooms and utility room. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, and quartz counter tops in all bathrooms. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Contact us today and find your home in Sunterra by clicking the text with us button or the request information button.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open concept
• Island kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $316k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $297,030 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.65%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,795
• List price: $315,990
• Delta: -8.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-52,410
• Equity at exit: $47,115

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-70,280
• Equity at exit: $27,321

Cash invested: $88,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,108 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,657
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$395 /mo · $4,740/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,954

Max offer price $315,990

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $340	-5% $231	+0% $122	+5% $13	+10% $-96
Rent	-10% $-124	-5% $-1	+0% $122	+5% $245	+10% $367
Rate	-1.0pp $281	-0.5pp $202	base $122	+0.5pp $40	+1.0pp $-43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,998
• Closing costs: $9,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	44d	1	0.05mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,762	$1.28	11d	1	0.05mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	0.39mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	25d	1	0.41mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	25d	1	0.44mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	13d	1	0.49mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	0.55mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	25d	1	0.63mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	25d	1	0.69mi
2654 Aruba Bend Dr Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1958	$3,390	$1.73	2d	54	0.73mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	44d	1	0.79mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	25d	1	0.98mi
3013 Pearl Coastline Ln Katy, TX	6.0	2.5	2480	$3,995	$1.61	25d	1	1.00mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	25d	1	1.04mi
3025 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	6.0	2.5	2480	$3,798	$1.53	5d	1	1.06mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	4d	1	1.06mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	21d	1	1.07mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	44d	1	1.11mi
3060 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	6.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	25d	1	1.11mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	44d	1	1.11mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	2d	25	1.17mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	17d	1	1.24mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	16d	1	1.24mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	22d	1	1.25mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	13d	1	1.26mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	25d	1	1.27mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	2d	16	1.40mi
28625 Clay Rd Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,000	$1.07	44d	1	1.43mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	2d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,990 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,990 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,990 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,990 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,990 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,990 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,990 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $315,990 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,990 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,990 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,990 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,990 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $315,990 Active 1284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1284 chars)

    Welcome to the Franklin Plan, located in the Sunterra community. This new home layout offers 2 classic front exteriors, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2 car-garage and 1891 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Franklin to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept living room, kitchen, and dining area. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area so you don't miss a thing while cooking and includes quartz counter tops, stainless steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the front of the home on the second story and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, quartz countertops, a grand walk-in closet and plenty of storage space. The second story includes all secondary bedrooms, and two full bathrooms. You'll have carpeted floors in every bedroom and sheet vinyl flooring in your bathrooms and utility room. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, and quartz counter tops in all bathrooms. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Contact us today and find your home in Sunterra by clicking the text with us button or the request information button.

15. 2026-03-24
    listed $315,990 Active 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    FANTASTIC FIVE BEDROOM!! BRAND NEW MODERN D.R. HORTON HOME IN SUNTERRA! OPEN CONCEPT TWO STORY! Wonderful Location! Lovely Curb Appeal with Gorgeous Exterior! Functional Floor Plan with Great Living Spaces Perfect for Everyday Living! Amazing Island Kitchen Includes Quartz Countertops, Beautiful White Cabinetry and Stainless Steel Appliances! Spacious Living and Dining Area! First Floor Also Offers a Half Bath for Guests! Second Floor Features Five Bedrooms and Two Full Baths with Conveniently Located Laundry Room! Great Outdoor Space with Front Sprinklers and Full Sod! Sunterra Offers Unbelievable Amenities for Residents! Amazing Lagoon Pool! Lazy River! And So Much More! Hurry and Call Today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,700
• − Property taxes: −$4,740
• − Insurance: −$1,580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,984
• − Management: −$2,984
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$9,192
• Taxable loss: −$3,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$883
• After-tax cash flow: $2,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $315,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Listed $315,990 HARMLS