3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #295 · Phoenix, AZ 85050

$128,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 43 Days on market

Built 1997 Good condition $103/sqft · 15% below area Est $152k · 15% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Hidden gem in the desert! This gated 55+ community features an executive 9 hole GOLF COURSE, Frank Llyod Wright designed community, hasHEATED swimming POOL, hot tub, four PICKLEBALL courts, & so much more. Visit the community website for a full list of activities. Thiscomfortable 3 BDRM, 2 bath has a fresh coat of paint, updated flooring, all appliances are included. TWO CAR tandem carport plus AIRCONDITIONED WORKSHOP! You can't beat this price for a 3 bdrm! Listing agent is related to the seller.

Key facts

• Gated community
• 9 hole golf course
• Hot tub

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• 9 HOLE GOLF COURSE
• HEATED SWIMMING POOL
• HOT TUB
• FOUR PICKLEBALL COURTS
• AIRCONDITIONED WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size source: Assessor; Building area source: Builder; Directions provided to unit 295
• HOA & community: Land lease: $930 monthly; Association fee includes: other (see remarks); Community pool; Community spa (heated); Golf; Pickleball courts

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community; Guarded entry
• Utilities: City water; Sewer connected; 220V in kitchen / electric
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private street(s); Desert front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: 220V outlet in kitchen; Laminate countertops; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Vaulted ceilings; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.4% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($140k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $890 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,936 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.02%
• DSCR: 4.52
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,120
• List price: $128,800
• Delta: -15.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #108	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$132,000	$106	99
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #250	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (0%)	3mo	$152,000	$122	90
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #39	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+0%)	10mo	$158,000	$126	88
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #149	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	14mo	$152,900	$123	85
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #323	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (+4%)	4mo	$159,000	$123	82
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #158	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,222 (-2%)	12mo	$150,000	$123	78
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #67	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,316 (+5%)	8mo	$172,000	$131	76
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #230	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (0%)	19mo	$167,000	$134	76
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #109	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+12%)	1mo	$130,000	$93	71
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #80	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (+8%)	13mo	$228,500	$169	68
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #193	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+12%)	11mo	$175,000	$125	62
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #303	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+15%)	20mo	$181,000	$127	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $126,251
• Equity at exit: $19,204

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.99×
• Total profit: $288,081
• Equity at exit: $11,136

Cash invested: $36,064 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85050

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,133 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$675
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,932/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$868
• Net cashflow: $2,375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,127

Max offer price $128,800

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,464	-5% $2,419	+0% $2,375	+5% $2,330	+10% $2,286
Rent	-10% $2,048	-5% $2,212	+0% $2,375	+5% $2,538	+10% $2,701
Rate	-1.0pp $2,440	-0.5pp $2,408	base $2,375	+0.5pp $2,342	+1.0pp $2,308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,200
• Closing costs: $3,864
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5–3.0	1490	$4,750	$3.19	44d	2	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1405	$6,000	$4.27	18d	3	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1383	$4,350	$3.15	18d	2	0.70mi
4066 E Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1269	$3,500	$2.76	44d	1	1.02mi
20660 N 40th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1325	$3,500	$2.64	18d	4	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,800 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,800 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,800 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,800 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,800 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,800 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,800 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,800 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $128,800 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $128,800 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,800 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $128,800 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $138,800 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,800 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $138,800 Active 504-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,215
• − Property taxes: −$1,932
• − Insurance: −$644
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,968
• − Management: −$3,968
• − Depreciation: −$3,747
• Taxable income: $28,122
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,749
• After-tax cash flow: $21,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in a gated 55+ community is in good condition with fresh paint and updated flooring. It offers a comfortable living space with a golf course and community amenities nearby.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices improve convenience and add value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices improve convenience and add value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 33,118
• Household income: $139,836
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.38%
• Current HPI: 308.7483
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $128,800 ARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $138,800 ARMLS