3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #295 · Phoenix, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (shaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 110°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 17 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 5 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +22.5/30.0
- ARV discount +13.8/15.0
- 1% rule +7.5/10.0
- DSCR +7.5/10.0
- Schools +5.6/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Rent growth +3.0/5.0
- Appreciation +2.5/10.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -5.6
$124,800
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Hidden gem in the desert! This gated 55+ community features an executive 9 hole GOLF COURSE, Frank Llyod Wright designed community, hasHEATED swimming POOL, hot tub, four PICKLEBALL courts, & so much more. Visit the community website for a full list of activities. Thiscomfortable 3 BDRM, 2 bath has a fresh coat of paint, updated flooring, all appliances are included. TWO CAR tandem carport plus AIRCONDITIONED WORKSHOP! You can't beat this price for a 3 bdrm! Listing agent is related to the seller.
Key facts
- Gated community
- 9 hole golf course
- Hot tub
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
- Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 3.2% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
- Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Wildfire Elementary School (math 59% / reading 64%, grade B, #132 of 1,109 statewide, top 12%, 457 students, 7% FRL); Explorer Middle School (math 57% / reading 53%, grade B-, #11 of 218 statewide, top 6%, 678 students, 6% FRL); Pinnacle High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #35 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 2,479 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools average 7% FRL vs 29% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 87d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $863 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.08% ✓
- Cap rate
- 17.67%
- Cash-on-cash
- 40.64%
- DSCR
- 2.81
- GRM
- 4.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $145,000
- List price
- $124,800
- Delta
- -13.93%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 19 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #108 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,248 (0%) | 4mo | $132,000 | $106 | 96 |
| 3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #87 | 0.07mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,226 (-2%) | 2mo | $110,000 | $90 | 87 |
| 3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #250 | 0.07mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,248 (0%) | 6mo | $152,000 | $122 | 87 |
| 3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #39 | 0.07mi | 3/2.0 | 1,250 (+0%) | 13mo | $158,000 | $126 | 86 |
| 3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #76 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,352 (+8%) | 2mo | $125,000 | $92 | 84 |
| 3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #149 | 0.07mi | 3/2.0 | 1,248 (0%) | 17mo | $152,900 | $123 | 82 |
| 3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #323 | 0.07mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,296 (+4%) | 7mo | $159,000 | $123 | 79 |
| 3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #158 | 0.07mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,222 (-2%) | 15mo | $150,000 | $123 | 76 |
| 3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #67 | 0.07mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,316 (+5%) | 11mo | $172,000 | $131 | 74 |
| 3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #109 | 0.07mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,400 (+12%) | 4mo | $130,000 | $93 | 68 |
| 3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #80 | 0.05mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,352 (+8%) | 16mo | $228,500 | $169 | 66 |
| 3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #193 | 0.07mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,400 (+12%) | 14mo | $175,000 | $125 | 60 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 35.9%
- Equity multiple
- 2.50×
- Total profit
- $52,556
- Equity at exit
- $18,608
- IRR
- 42.1%
- Equity multiple
- 4.79×
- Total profit
- $132,398
- Equity at exit
- $10,790
Cash invested: $34,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 10 active · 8 under contract
- Months of supply
- 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $140,450 ($97/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 173 d
- This list price
- 30% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +19.8% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 85050
- Home prices YoY
- -21.9%
- Rents YoY
- 2.0%
- Active inventory
- 305
- Price-to-rent
- 4.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,590 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$654
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$156 /mo · $1,872/yr
- Insurance
- −$52
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$544
- Net cashflow
- $1,183
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $1,270 | -5% $1,227 | +0% $1,183 | +5% $1,140 | +10% $1,097 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $979 | -5% $1,081 | +0% $1,183 | +5% $1,286 | +10% $1,388 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $1,246 | -0.5pp $1,215 | base $1,183 | +0.5pp $1,151 | +1.0pp $1,118 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $31,200
- Closing costs
- $3,744
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 17 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0–2.5 | 1539 | $3,100 | $2.01 | 40d | 2 | 0.70mi |
| 3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1388 | $2,725 | $1.96 | 92d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ | 2.0 | 2.5–3.0 | 1490 | $4,750 | $3.19 | 139d | 2 | 0.70mi |
| 3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ | 2.0–3.0 | 2.5 | 1405 | $6,000 | $4.27 | 113d | 3 | 0.70mi |
| 3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0–3.0 | 1664 | $4,500 | $2.70 | 3d | 5 | 0.70mi |
| 21862 N 40th Pl Phoenix, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1449 | $2,200 | $1.52 | 88d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 21808 N 40th Pl Phoenix, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1269 | $2,170 | $1.71 | 42d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 4066 E Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1269 | $3,500 | $2.76 | 139d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 21827 N 40th Way Phoenix, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1449 | $2,600 | $1.79 | 93d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 3660 E Zachary Dr Phoenix, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1444 | $2,700 | $1.87 | 86d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 20750 N 38th St Phoenix, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1407 | $2,295 | $1.63 | 93d | 1 | 1.44mi |
| 20660 N 40th St Phoenix, AZ | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0 | 1325 | $3,500 | $2.64 | 44d | 3 | 1.49mi |
| 20660 N 40th St Phoenix, AZ | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0 | 1325 | $3,500 | $2.64 | 40d | 4 | 1.49mi |
| 20660 N 40th St Phoenix, AZ | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0 | 1325 | $3,500 | $2.64 | 84d | 4 | 1.49mi |
| 20660 N 40th St Phoenix, AZ | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0 | 1325 | $3,500 | $2.64 | 113d | 4 | 1.49mi |
| 20660 N 40th St Phoenix, AZ | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0 | 1442 | $3,500 | $2.43 | 3d | 5 | 1.49mi |
| 4709 E Abraham Ln Phoenix, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1322 | $2,495 | $1.89 | 78d | 1 | 1.49mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Lot size source: AssessorBuilding area source: BuilderDirections provided to unit 295
- HOA & community
- Land lease: $930 monthlyAssociation fee includes: other (see remarks)Community poolCommunity spa (heated)GolfPickleball courts
Exterior
- Parking
- 2 covered parking spaces2 carport spaces
- Security
- Gated communityGuarded entry
- Utilities
- City waterSewer connected220V in kitchen / electric
- Home design
- Manufactured/mobile homeLeasehold ownership
- Construction
- Wood siding and wood frame constructionPainted exteriorComposition roof
- Exterior features
- Private street(s)Desert front and back
Interior
- Kitchen
- 220V outlet in kitchenLaminate countertopsRefrigeratorDishwasherDisposal
- Bedrooms
- 3 possible bedrooms
- Flooring
- CarpetLaminate
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Has heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Double vanityVaulted ceilings3/4 bath in master bedroomSkylight(s)
- Laundry & utility
- Inside laundry
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-24days on market $124,800 Active 141 DOM
-
2026-09-23days on market $124,800 Active 140 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $124,800 Active 139 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $124,800 Active 138 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $124,800 Active 137 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $124,800 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $124,800 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $124,800 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $124,800 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $124,800 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $124,800 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $124,800 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $124,800 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $124,800 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $124,800 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $124,800 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $124,800 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $124,800 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $124,800 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $124,800 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $124,800 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $124,800 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $124,800 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $124,800 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $124,800 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $124,800 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $124,800 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $124,800 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $124,800 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $124,800 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $124,800 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $124,800 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $124,800 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $124,800 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $124,800 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $124,800 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $124,800 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $124,800 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $124,800 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $124,800 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $124,800 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $124,800 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $124,800 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $124,800 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $124,800 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $124,800 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $124,800 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $124,800 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $124,800 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $124,800 Active 79 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $31,076
- − Mortgage interest
- −$6,991
- − Property taxes
- −$1,872
- − Insurance
- −$624
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,486
- − Management
- −$2,486
- − Depreciation
- −$3,631
- Taxable income
- $12,987
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$3,117
- After-tax cash flow
- $11,084/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos
This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in a gated 55+ community is in good condition with fresh paint and updated flooring. It offers a comfortable living space with a golf course and community amenities nearby.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value ↑
- Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices improve convenience and add value ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
- NCES district ID
- 0405930
- Math proficiency
- 39% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 46% ▼ -7.00%
- Median HH income
- $64,106
- Composite
- 37.89/100
- National rank
- #4316
- State rank
- #56 of 249 in AZ
Livability — Phoenix
- Score
- 75/100
- State rank
- #16
- US rank
- #3924
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Phoenix, AZ
- County
- Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
- City population
- 1,500,198
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 33,118
- Household income
- $139,836
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 17% of renters
Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 4,979,203 people
- By 2030
- 5,378,229 · +8.0%
- By 2040
- 6,156,598 · +23.6%
- By 2050
- 6,872,376 · +38.0%
- By 2075
- 8,401,270 · +68.7%
- By 2100
- 9,247,439 · +85.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (71%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 9% Black 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 8%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 5% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -86.38%
- Current HPI
- 308.7483
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.98%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
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Price history
-7.2% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-02 Price Changed $128,800 ARMLS
- 2026-05-06 Listed $138,800 ARMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…