8430 Imperial Lake Cir · Ellenton, FL 34221

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,518 sqft · Manufactured public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1987 7,492 sqft lot Est $217k · 15% under $181/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Imperial Lakes is a premier 55 + gated community with lots of amenities for residents to enjoy. Pools, tennis courts, bocci ball and horseshoes, clubhouse and social events. Home has many upgrades which seller completed in 2012 including a new roof, new A/C and new blinds. Home sits across the street from the lake so lake views are seen from the home.

Key facts

• Florida sunroom
• Large walk-in closet
• 7,492 sq ft lot

Tags

• IMPERIAL LAKES COMMUNITY
• FLORIDA SUNROOM
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: under 1/4 acre (approx. 0.17 acres); South-facing
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Part of Darcy Branch association; Monthly HOA approximately $181.33 (quarterly fee listed); Association approval required; Senior community; Dogs allowed; Partially furnished

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water (also canal/lake irrigation available); Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built in approximately (public records listed)
• Exterior features: Storage; Lake view with lake access; Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Crawlspace foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combo; Living room and dining room combo; Thermostat; Skylight(s); Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Palmetto Elementary School (math 53% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 570 students, 78% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $185k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.41%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,074
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8434 Imperial Cir	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+1%)	7mo	$187,500	$122	87
8439 Imperial Cir	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,484 (-2%)	9mo	$265,000	$179	83
8466 Imperial Cir	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,502 (-1%)	4mo	$180,000	$120	80
8485 Imperial Cir	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,592 (+5%)	3mo	$160,000	$101	76
8308 Princess Ct	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,456 (-4%)	3mo	$180,000	$124	76
8523 Countess Avenue Cir	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,431 (-6%)	5mo	$207,500	$145	70
8400 Princess Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-4%)	4mo	$185,000	$127	70
8521 Countess Avenue Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,596 (+5%)	2mo	$235,000	$147	68
8402 Imperial Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,340 (-12%)	3mo	$198,000	$148	67
8509 Monarch Pl	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,352 (-11%)	3mo	$255,000	$189	63
8427 Castle Garden Rd	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-15%)	3mo	$185,000	$143	60
8534 Countess Avenue Cir	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,696 (+12%)	4mo	$230,000	$136	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,414
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,230
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,284 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,561/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$181
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,825

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $415	+0% $363	+5% $311	+10% $258
Rent	-10% $183	-5% $273	+0% $363	+5% $453	+10% $544
Rate	-1.0pp $456	-0.5pp $410	base $363	+0.5pp $315	+1.0pp $266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9650 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,958	$1.87	25d	99	0.72mi
4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,466	$1.70	23d	1	0.94mi
5871 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,185	$1.46	23d	1	0.99mi
9117 Optimist Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1489	$2,200	$1.48	25d	1	1.02mi
4014 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,516	$1.62	23d	1	1.04mi
6210 Terra Lago Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,962	$1.93	5d	50	1.11mi
4816 Heinman Cv Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1920	$3,300	$1.72	13d	1	1.26mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	23d	1	1.33mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	23d	1	1.33mi
6249 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,890	$1.57	16d	1	1.34mi
6256 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,845	$1.52	16d	1	1.37mi
6334 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1235	$1,795	$1.45	5d	1	1.39mi
6354 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1123	$2,000	$1.78	25d	1	1.39mi
6345 Willowside St Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1407	$2,200	$1.56	25d	1	1.41mi
9262 Gulf Haven Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2043	$2,750	$1.35	16d	1	1.46mi
5331 Rushmere Ct Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1582	$2,600	$1.64	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $181 · $2,172/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    price $185,000
15. 2026-04-18
    price $210,042
16. 2026-03-23
    price $224,042
17. 2026-02-14
    listed $232,000 Active
18. 2014-03-21
    soldstatus $92,000
19. 2014-03-18
    soldstatus $92,000 Sold 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Imperial Lakes is a premier 55 + gated community with lots of amenities for residents to enjoy. Pools, tennis courts, bocci ball and horseshoes, clubhouse and social events. Home has many upgrades which seller completed in 2012 including a new roof, new A/C and new blinds. Home sits across the street from the lake so lake views are seen from the home.

20. 2014-02-28
    historical
21. 2014-01-26
    listed $96,500 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Imperial Lakes is a premier 55 + gated community with lots of amenities for residents to enjoy. Pools, tennis courts, bocci ball and horseshoes, clubhouse and social events. Home has many upgrades which seller completed in 2012 including a new roof, new A/C and new blinds. Home sits across the street from the lake so lake views are seen from the home.

22. 2013-12-04
    listed $98,900
23. 2012-09-06
    soldstatus $65,000
24. 2012-08-30
    soldstatus $65,000
25. 2012-04-23
    listed $79,775
26. 2012-03-18
    historical
27. 2011-11-23
    listed $75,800
28. 2011-05-11
    historical
29. 2011-03-11
    listed $96,900
30. 1998-10-06
    soldstatus $70,000
31. 1996-08-02
    soldstatus $70,000
32. 1988-09-16
    soldstatus $84,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,561 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,561 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,561
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,193
• − Management: −$2,193
• − HOA: −$2,172
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $1,625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$390
• After-tax cash flow: $3,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+118.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $210,042 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $224,042 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Listed $232,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-18 Sold (MLS) $92,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-26 Listed $96,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-04 Listed $98,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-30 Sold (MLS) $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-23 Listed $79,775 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-23 Listed $75,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-11 Listed $96,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1988-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $84,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,561 · +301.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.